Background Clinical criteria for pertussis diagnosis and clinical case definitions for surveillance are based on a cough lasting two or more weeks. As several pertussis cases seek care earlier, a ...clinical tool independent of cough duration may support earlier recognition. We developed a data-driven algorithm aimed at predicting a laboratory confirmed pertussis. Methods We enrolled children <12 months of age presenting with apnoea, paroxistic cough, whooping, or post-tussive vomiting, irrespective of the duration of cough. Patients underwent a RT-PCR test for pertussis and other viruses. Through a logistic regression model, we identified symptoms associated with laboratory confirmed pertussis. We then developed a predictive decision tree through Quinlan's C4.5 algorithm to predict laboratory confirmed pertussis. Results We enrolled 543 children, of which 160 had a positive RT-PCR for pertussis. A suspicion of pertussis by a physician (aOR 5.44) or a blood count showing leukocytosis and lymphocytosis (aOR 4.48) were highly predictive of lab confirmed pertussis. An algorithm including a suspicion of pertussis by a physician, whooping, cyanosis and absence of fever was accurate (79.9%) and specific (94.0%) and had high positive and negative predictive values (PPV 76.3% NPV 80.7%). Conclusions An algorithm based on clinical symptoms, not including the duration of cough, is accurate and has high predictive values for lab confirmed pertussis. Such a tool may be useful in low resource settings where lab confirmation is unavailable, to guide differential diagnosis and clinical decisions. Algorithms may also be useful to improve surveillance for pertussis and anticipating classification of cases.
A multicentre case-control study based on sentinel practitioner surveillance networks from seven European countries was undertaken to estimate the effectiveness of 2009-2010 pandemic and seasonal ...influenza vaccines against medically attended influenza-like illness (ILI) laboratory-confirmed as pandemic influenza A (H1N1) (pH1N1).
Sentinel practitioners swabbed ILI patients using systematic sampling. We included in the study patients meeting the European ILI case definition with onset of symptoms >14 days after the start of national pandemic vaccination campaigns. We compared pH1N1 cases to influenza laboratory-negative controls. A valid vaccination corresponded to >14 days between receiving a dose of vaccine and symptom onset. We estimated pooled vaccine effectiveness (VE) as 1 minus the odds ratio with the study site as a fixed effect. Using logistic regression, we adjusted VE for potential confounding factors (age group, sex, month of onset, chronic diseases and related hospitalizations, smoking history, seasonal influenza vaccinations, practitioner visits in previous year). We conducted a complete case analysis excluding individuals with missing values and a multiple multivariate imputation to estimate missing values. The multivariate imputation (n = 2902) adjusted pandemic VE (PIVE) estimates were 71.9% (95% confidence interval CI 45.6-85.5) overall; 78.4% (95% CI 54.4-89.8) in patients <65 years; and 72.9% (95% CI 39.8-87.8) in individuals without chronic disease. The complete case (n = 1,502) adjusted PIVE were 66.0% (95% CI 23.9-84.8), 71.3% (95% CI 29.1-88.4), and 70.2% (95% CI 19.4-89.0), respectively. The adjusted PIVE was 66.0% (95% CI -69.9 to 93.2) if vaccinated 8-14 days before ILI onset. The adjusted 2009-2010 seasonal influenza VE was 9.9% (95% CI -65.2 to 50.9).
Our results suggest good protection of the pandemic monovalent vaccine against medically attended pH1N1 and no effect of the 2009-2010 seasonal influenza vaccine. However, the late availability of the pandemic vaccine and subsequent limited coverage with this vaccine hampered our ability to study vaccine benefits during the outbreak period. Future studies should include estimation of the effectiveness of the new trivalent vaccine in the upcoming 2010-2011 season, when vaccination will occur before the influenza season starts.
Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infection in children under 5 years have a significant clinical burden, also in primary care settings. This study investigates the epidemiology and burden of RSV in ...Italian children during the 2019/20 pre-pandemic winter season.
A prospective cohort study was conducted in two Italian regions. Children with Acute Respiratory Infection (ARI) visiting pediatricians were eligible. Nasopharyngeal swabs were collected and analyzed via multiplex PCR for RSV detection. A follow-up questionnaire after 14 days assessed disease burden, encompassing healthcare utilization and illness duration. Statistical analyses, including regression models, explored associations between variables such as RSV subtype and regional variations.
Of 293 children with ARI, 41% (119) tested positive for RSV. Median illness duration for RSV-positive cases was 7 days; 6% required hospitalization (median stay: 7 days). Medication was prescribed to 95% (110/116) of RSV cases, with 31% (34/116) receiving antibiotics. RSV subtype B and regional factors predicted increased healthcare utilization. Children with shortness of breath experienced a 36% longer illness duration.
This study highlights a significant clinical burden and healthcare utilization associated with RSV in pre-pandemic Italian primary care settings. Identified predictors, including RSV subtype and symptomatology, indicate the need for targeted interventions and resource allocation strategies. RSV epidemiology can guide public health strategies for the implementation of preventive measures.
The introduction of mass vaccination against Varicella-Zoster-Virus (VZV) is being delayed in many European countries because of, among other factors, the possibility of a large increase in Herpes ...Zoster (HZ) incidence in the first decades after the initiation of vaccination, due to the expected decline of the boosting of Cell Mediated Immunity caused by the reduced varicella circulation. A multi-country model of VZV transmission and reactivation, is used to evaluate the possible impact of varicella vaccination on HZ epidemiology in Italy, Finland and the UK. Despite the large uncertainty surrounding HZ and vaccine-related parameters, surprisingly robust medium-term predictions are provided, indicating that an increase in HZ incidence is likely to occur in countries where the incidence rate is lower in absence of immunization, possibly due to a higher force of boosting (e.g. Finland), whereas increases in HZ incidence might be minor where the force of boosting is milder (e.g. the UK). Moreover, a convergence of HZ post vaccination incidence levels in the examined countries is predicted despite different initial degrees of success of immunization policies. Unlike previous model-based evaluations, our investigation shows that after varicella immunization an increase of HZ incidence is not a certain fact, rather depends on the presence or absence of factors promoting a strong boosting intensity and which might or not be heavily affected by changes in varicella circulation due to mass immunization. These findings might explain the opposed empirical evidences observed about the increases of HZ in sites where mass varicella vaccination is ongoing.
Seasonal influenza is an important cause of morbidity and mortality, particularly among the elderly population. Determinants of vaccination uptake and its impact on health outcomes in the seasons ...2014/2015-2016/2017 in elderly living in Treviso area (Veneto Region, North-Eastern Italy) were evaluated. A retrospective cohort study was conducted combining information from several health administrative databases, and multiple Poisson regression models were applied to evaluate the influenza vaccine effectiveness, also adjusting for confounding factors. MF59-adjuvanted trivalent-inactivated vaccine was mainly administered. Data from more than 83,000 elderly people were analyzed by year. Vaccine coverage was about 50%; influenza vaccination uptake was independently associated with older age, male sex, increasing number of underlying chronic conditions, previous pneumococcal vaccination, annual expenses for specialist medical cares, and general practitioner to whom the elderly was in charge. After adjusting for previously described characteristics, vaccination was associated with lower mortality and influenza-related hospitalization rates. Specifically, during influenza season the adjusted incidence rate ratio of death and of influenza-related hospitalizations for vaccinated compared to unvaccinated persons was 0.63 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.58-0.69, p < .001 and 0.86 (95% CI 0.81-0.91, p < .001), respectively. A similar effectiveness was estimated for death in all age groups (≤74, 75-84, ≥85 years old), whereas a higher effect was found for hospitalizations in subjects aged ≥75 years old. Vaccination was also effective both in males and females. Findings suggest a health benefit of the influenza vaccination in the elderly population. Efforts should be focused on strategies to increase the vaccination uptake as important instrument of prevention.
Abstract
Mechanisms of interaction between Bordetella pertussis and other viral agents are yet to be fully explored. We studied the inflammatory cytokine expression patterns among children with both ...viral-bacterial infections. Nasopharyngeal aspirate (NPA) samples were taken from children, aged < 1 year, positive for Rhinovirus, Bordetella pertussis and for Rhinovirus and Bordetella pertussis. Forty cytokines were evaluated in NPA by using human cytokine protein arrays and a quantitative analysis was performed on significantly altered cytokines. Forty cytokines were evaluated in NPA by using human cytokine protein arrays and a quantitative analysis was performed on significantly altered cytokines. Our results show that co-infections display a different inflammatory pattern compared to single infections, suggesting that a chronic inflammation caused by one of the two pathogens could be the trigger for exacerbation in co-infections.
Seasonal influenza in Health-Care Workers (HCWs) is a topic of growing interest in public health for its organizational implications. The study aims at measuring absenteeism due to influenza in HCWs ...of an Italian pediatric hospital.
A retrospective observational study on absenteeism for influenza and influenza-like illness was carried out on all hospital HCWs. Sickness absences up to 5 days and vaccination status of HCWs were recorded during the last two years (2016/2017, 2017 /2018). Average sickness absenteeism rate in vaccinated and unvaccinated HCWs and total working days lost were estimated. Daily mean cost for HCW was calculated in order to define the non-vaccination costs.
In this study, the authors analyzed the overlapping between the trend of weekly sickness absenteeism and the morbidity rate associated with influenza epidemics in adults living in the Lazio region, Italy. An excess of 0.38 (p = 0.03) and 0.46 (p = 0.01) of average days lost was recorded in unvaccinated HCWs in the 2016/2017 and 2017/2018 epidemic seasons. The total amount of days lost in unvaccinated HCWs is 1.485,4 with a total cost of € 252.060,54.
Seasonal influenza vaccination confirms its key role in preventing outbreaks of influenza and promoting HCWs health.
In the third season of I-MOVE (Influenza Monitoring Vaccine Effectiveness in Europe), we undertook a multicentre case-control study based on sentinel practitioner surveillance networks in eight ...European Union (EU) member states to estimate 2010/11 influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) against medically-attended influenza-like illness (ILI) laboratory-confirmed as influenza.
Using systematic sampling, practitioners swabbed ILI/ARI patients within seven days of symptom onset. We compared influenza-positive to influenza laboratory-negative patients among those meeting the EU ILI case definition. A valid vaccination corresponded to > 14 days between receiving a dose of vaccine and symptom onset. We used multiple imputation with chained equations to estimate missing values. Using logistic regression with study as fixed effect we calculated influenza VE adjusting for potential confounders. We estimated influenza VE overall, by influenza type, age group and among the target group for vaccination.
We included 2019 cases and 2391 controls in the analysis. Adjusted VE was 52% (95% CI 30-67) overall (N = 4410), 55% (95% CI 29-72) against A(H1N1) and 50% (95% CI 14-71) against influenza B. Adjusted VE against all influenza subtypes was 66% (95% CI 15-86), 41% (95% CI -3-66) and 60% (95% CI 17-81) among those aged 0-14, 15-59 and ≥60 respectively. Among target groups for vaccination (N = 1004), VE was 56% (95% CI 34-71) overall, 59% (95% CI 32-75) against A(H1N1) and 63% (95% CI 31-81) against influenza B.
Results suggest moderate protection from 2010-11 trivalent influenza vaccines against medically-attended ILI laboratory-confirmed as influenza across Europe. Adjusted and stratified influenza VE estimates are possible with the large sample size of this multi-centre case-control. I-MOVE shows how a network can provide precise summary VE measures across Europe.
Individual-based models can provide the most reliable estimates of the spread of infectious diseases. In the present study, we evaluated the diffusion of pandemic influenza in Italy and the impact of ...various control measures, coupling a global SEIR model for importation of cases with an individual based model (IBM) describing the Italian epidemic.
We co-located the Italian population (57 million inhabitants) to households, schools and workplaces and we assigned travel destinations to match the 2001 census data. We considered different R(0 )values (1.4; 1.7; 2), evaluating the impact of control measures (vaccination, antiviral prophylaxis -AVP-, international air travel restrictions and increased social distancing). The administration of two vaccine doses was considered, assuming that first dose would be administered 1-6 months after the first world case, and different values for vaccine effectiveness (VE). With no interventions, importation would occur 37-77 days after the first world case. Air travel restrictions would delay the importation of the pandemic by 7-37 days. With an R(0 )of 1.4 or 1.7, the use of combined measures would reduce clinical attack rates (AR) from 21-31% to 0.3-4%. Assuming an R(0) of 2, the AR would decrease from 38% to 8%, yet only if vaccination were started within 2 months of the first world case, in combination with a 90% reduction in international air traffic, closure of schools/workplaces for 4 weeks and AVP of household and school/work close contacts of clinical cases. Varying VE would not substantially affect the results.
This IBM, which is based on country-specific demographic data, could be suitable for the real-time evaluation of measures to be undertaken in the event of the emergence of a new pandemic influenza virus. All preventive measures considered should be implemented to mitigate the pandemic.
Surveillance for adverse events following immunization is an important component of any national immunization programme because it is critical to assessing the safety of vaccines and to detecting ...potentially rare and severe adverse events and responding in a timely manner. We conducted an enhanced active surveillance aimed at assessing the safety of flu vaccines in the 2015-2016 season in Italy. The study was targeted to the population groups for which the seasonal vaccine is recommended in Italy.
During the study period, a total of 3213 individuals receiving seasonal influenza vaccination were registered on the web-based platform. Any adverse events experienced after 7 days from vaccination by individuals aged six months or more were collected through a telephone interview or by a web-based self-administered questionnaire. All individuals experiencing at least one event during the 7 days of follow-up were contacted for follow-up to 60 days.
Overall, 854 events were reported: 845 events (26%) after administration of the first dose and 9 (12%) after the second dose. The majority of adverse events reported after 7 days from the first dose were of little clinical importance, and most involved local symptoms.
Our data, even though the number of vaccinated individuals was smaller than expected, is consistent with the safety of influenza vaccines in Italy during the 2015-2016 season regarding the most common adverse events. Further efforts are needed to obtain sufficient power to study rarer adverse events. Active monitoring and systematic studies to test generated signals and hypotheses are crucial to intensify awareness among the public and professionals with regard to the safety of vaccines.
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