This study presents near future (2020–2044) temperature and precipitation changes over the Antarctic Peninsula under the high-emission scenario (RCP8.5). We make use of historical and projected ...simulations from 19 global climate models (GCMs) participating in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). We compare and contrast GCMs projections with two groups of regional climate model simulations (RCMs): (1) high resolution (15-km) simulations performed with Polar-WRF model forced with bias-corrected NCAR-CESM1 (NC-CORR) over the Antarctic Peninsula, (2) medium resolution (50-km) simulations of KNMI-RACMO21P forced with EC-EARTH (EC) obtained from the CORDEX-Antarctica. A further comparison of historical simulations (1981–2005) with respect to ERA5 reanalysis is also included for circulation patterns and near-surface temperature climatology. In general, both RCM boundary conditions represent well the main circulation patterns of the historical period. Nonetheless, there are important differences in projections such as a notable deepening and weakening of the Amundsen Sea Low in EC and NC-CORR, respectively. Mean annual near-surface temperatures are projected to increase by about 0.5–1.5
∘
C across the entire peninsula. Temperature increase is more substantial in autumn and winter (
∼
2
∘
C). Following opposite circulation pattern changes, both EC and NC-CORR exhibit different warming rates, indicating a possible continuation of natural decadal variability. Although generally showing similar temperature changes, RCM projections show less warming and a smaller increase in melt days in the Larsen Ice Shelf compared to their respective driving fields. Regarding precipitation, there is a broad agreement among the simulations, indicating an increase in mean annual precipitation (
∼
5 to 10%). However, RCMs show some notable differences over the Larsen Ice Shelf where total precipitation decreases (for RACMO) and shows a small increase in rain frequency. We conclude that it seems still difficult to get consistent projections from GCMs for the Antarctic Peninsula as depicted in both RCM boundary conditions. In addition, dominant and common changes from the boundary conditions are largely evident in the RCM simulations. We argue that added value of RCM projections is driven by processes shaped by finer local details and different physics schemes that are introduced by RCMs, particularly over the Larsen Ice Shelf.
This study investigates the recent near-surface temperature trends over the Antarctic Peninsula. We make use of available surface observations, ECMWF’s ERA5 and its predecessor ERA-Interim, as well ...as numerical simulations, allowing us to contrast different data sources. We use hindcast simulations performed with Polar-WRF over the Antarctic Peninsula on a nested domain configuration at 45 km (PWRF-45) and 15 km (PWRF-15) spatial resolutions for the period 1991-2015. In addition, we include hindcast simulations of KNMI-RACMO21P obtained from the CORDEX-Antarctica domain (~50 km) for further comparisons. Results show that there is a marked windward warming trend except during summer. This windward warming trend is particularly notable in the autumn season and likely to be associated with the recent deepening of the Amundsen/Bellingshausen Sea low and warm advection towards the Antarctic Peninsula. On the other hand, an overall summer cooling is characterized by the strengthening of the Weddell Sea low as well as an anticyclonic trend over the Amundsen Sea accompanied by northward winds. The persistent cooling trend observed at the Larsen Ice Shelf station is not captured by ERA-Interim, whereas hindcast simulations indicate that there is a clear pattern of windward warming and leeward cooling. Furthermore, larger temporal correlations and lower differences exhibited by PWRF-15 illustrate the existence of the added value in the higher spatial resolution simulation.
Vertical profiles of black carbon (BC) and other light-absorbing impurities were measured in seasonal snow and permanent snowfields in the Chilean Andes during Austral winters 2015 and 2016, at 22 ...sites between latitudes 18°S and 41°S. The samples were analyzed for spectrally-resolved visible light absorption. For surface snow, the average mass mixing ratio of BC was 15 ng/g in northern Chile (18-33°S), 28 ng/g near Santiago (a major city near latitude 33°S, where urban pollution plays a significant role), and 13 ng/g in southern Chile (33-41°S). The regional average vertically-integrated loading of BC was 207 µg/m
in the north, 780 µg/m
near Santiago, and 2500 µg/m
in the south, where the snow season was longer and the snow was deeper. For samples collected at locations where there had been no new snowfall for a week or more, the BC concentration in surface snow was high (~10-100 ng/g) and the sub-surface snow was comparatively clean, indicating the dominance of dry deposition of BC. Mean albedo reductions due to light-absorbing impurities were 0.0150, 0.0160, and 0.0077 for snow grain radii of 100 µm for northern Chile, the region near Santiago, and southern Chile; respective mean radiative forcings for the winter months were 2.8, 1.4, and 0.6 W/m
. In northern Chile, our measurements indicate that light-absorption by impurities in snow was dominated by dust rather than BC.
We propose a monochromatic low-cost automatic sun photometer (LoCo-ASP) to perform distributed aerosol optical depth (AOD) measurements at the city scale. This kind of network could fill the gap ...between current automatic ground instruments—with good temporal resolution and accuracy, but few devices per city and satellite products—with global coverage, but lower temporal resolution and accuracy-. As a first approach, we consider a single equivalent wavelength around 408 nm. The cost of materials for the instrument is around 220 dollars. Moreover, we propose a calibration transfer for a pattern instrument, and estimate the uncertainties for several units and due to the internal differences and the calibration process. We achieve a max MAE of 0.026 for 38 sensors at 408 nm compared with AERONET Cimel; a mean standard deviation of 0.0062 among our entire sensor for measurement and a calibration uncertainty of 0.01. Finally, we perform city-scale measurements to show the dynamics of AOD. Our instrument can measure unsupervised, with an expected error for AOD between 0.02 and 0.03.
Abstract
The chemical composition of snow provides insights on atmospheric transport of anthropogenic contaminants at different spatial scales. In this study, we assess how human activities influence ...the concentration of elements in the Andean mountain snow along a latitudinal transect throughout Chile. The concentration of seven elements (Al, Cu, Fe, Li, Mg, Mn and Zn) was associated to gaseous and particulate contaminants emitted at different spatial scales. Our results indicate carbon monoxide (CO) averaged at 20 km and nitrogen oxide (NOx) at 40 km as the main indicators of the chemical elements analyzed. CO was found to be a significant predictor of most element concentrations while concentrations of Cu, Mn, Mg and Zn were positively associated to emissions of NOx. Emission of 2.5 μm and 10 μm particulate matter averaged at different spatial scales was positively associated to concentration of Li. Finally, the concentration of Zn was positively associated to volatile organic compounds (VOC) averaged at 40 km around sampling sites. The association between air contaminants and chemical composition of snow suggests that regions with intensive anthropogenic pollution face reduced quality of freshwater originated from glacier and snow melting.
The socio-ecological sensitivity to water deficits makes Chile highly vulnerable to global change. New evidence of a multi-decadal drying trend and the impacts of a persistent drought that since 2010 ...has affected several regions of the country, reinforce the need for clear diagnoses of the hydro-climate changes in Chile. Based on the analysis of long-term records (50+ years) of precipitation and streamflow, we confirm a tendency toward a dryer condition in central-southern Chile (30–48°S). We describe the geographical and seasonal character of this trend, as well as the associated large-scale circulation patterns. When a large ensemble of climate model simulations is contrasted to observations, anthropogenic forcing appears as the leading factor of precipitation change. In addition to a drying trend driven by greenhouse gas forcing in all seasons, our results indicate that the Antarctic stratospheric ozone depletion has played a major role in the summer rainfall decline. Although average model results agree well with the drying trend’s seasonal character, the observed change magnitude is two to three times larger than that simulated, indicating a potential underestimation of future projections for this region. Under present-day carbon emission rates, the drying pathway in Chile will likely prevail during the next decades, although the summer signal should weaken as a result of the gradual ozone layer recovery. The trends and scenarios shown here pose substantial stress on Chilean society and its institutions, and call for urgent action regarding adaptation measures.
Radars are used to retrieve physical parameters related to clouds and fog. With these measurements, models can be developed for several application fields such as climate, agriculture, aviation, ...energy, and astronomy. In Chile, coastal fog and low marine stratus intersect the coastal topography, forming a thick fog essential to sustain coastal ecosystems. This phenomenon motivates the development of cloud radars to boost scientific research. In this article, we present the design of a Ka-band cloud radar and the experiments that prove its operation. The radar uses a frequency-modulated continuous-wave with a carrier frequency of 38 GHz. By using a drone and a commercial Lidar, we were able to verify that the radar can measure reflectivities in the order of −60 dBZ at 500 m of distance, with a range resolution of 20 m. The lower needed range coverage imposed by our case of study enabled a significant reduction of the instrument cost compared to existent alternatives. The portability and low-cost of the designed instrument enable its implementation in a distributed manner along the coastal mountain range, as well as its use in medium-size aerial vehicles or balloons to study higher layers. The main features, limitations, and possible improvements to the current instrument are discussed.
A major storm impacted the subtropical Andes during 28–31 January 2021 producing 4-days accumulated precipitation up to 100 mm over central-south Chile. These are high accumulations even for winter ...events but the storm occurred in the middle of the summer when precipitation is virtually absent, conferring it an extraordinary character. Similar storms have occurred only 2–3 times in the past century. The January 2021 event included periods of high rainfall intensity, hail and lighting, causing dozens of landslides and flash floods with the concomitant social impacts and economical losses. Here we examine the meteorological drivers of this storm at multiples scales, its climatological context, the associated surface impacts, and some aspects of its predictability.
About a week before the storm development over central Chile, a large-scale perturbation in the central South Pacific set the stage for the formation of a zonal jet aloft and zonal atmospheric river (ZAR) that extended eastward until reaching the west coast of South America. The ZAR landfalled at 39°S and its subsequent northward displacement resulted in copious orographic precipitation over the Andes and adjacent lowlands, concomitant with a relatively warm environment during the first phase of the storm (28–29 January). During the second phase (30–31 January) the ZAR decayed rapidly but left behind significant amount of water vapor and the formation of a cut-off low (COL) in its poleward flank. The COL facilitated both advection of cyclonic vorticity and cold air at mid-levels, setting the environment for deep convection, intense rain showers, significant lightning activity, and hail.
An assessment of the quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) from the operational Global Forecast System (GFS) indicates that the model captured well the 96-h precipitation accumulation (28–31 January) in terms of timing and spatial extent. However, specific zones with the largest accumulations varied as a function of lead time. The more stable precipitation during the ZAR phase was better predicted than the convective precipitation during the COL phase. Proper dissemination of these forecast and recently established infrastructure contributed to ease the impact of this extraordinary event on the general population.
In this paper we present radiative‐convective simulations to test the idea that tropical cirrus clouds, acting as a negative feedback on climate, can provide a solution to the faint young Sun ...paradox. We find that global mean surface temperatures above freezing can indeed be found for luminosities larger than about 0.8 (corresponding to ∼2.9 Ga and nearly complete tropical cirrus coverage). For luminosities smaller than 0.8, even though global mean surface temperatures are below freezing, tropical mean temperatures are still above freezing, indicating the possibility of a partially ice‐free Earth for the Early Archean. We discuss possible mechanisms for the functioning of this negative feedback. While it is feasible for tropical cirrus to completely eliminate the paradox, it is similarly possible for tropical cirrus to reduce the amounts of other greenhouse gases needed for solving the paradox and therefore easing the constraints on CO2 and CH4 that appear to be in disagreement with geological evidence.
A solar radiation database for Chile Molina, Alejandra; Falvey, Mark; Rondanelli, Roberto
Scientific reports,
11/2017, Letnik:
7, Številka:
1
Journal Article
Recenzirano
Odprti dostop
Chile hosts some of the sunniest places on earth, which has led to a growing solar energy industry in recent years. However, the lack of high resolution measurements of solar irradiance becomes a ...critical obstacle for both financing and design of solar installations. Besides the Atacama Desert, Chile displays a large array of "solar climates" due to large latitude and altitude variations, and so provides a useful testbed for the development of solar irradiance maps. Here a new public database for surface solar irradiance over Chile is presented. This database includes hourly irradiance from 2004 to 2016 at 90 m horizontal resolution over continental Chile. Our results are based on global reanalysis data to force a radiative transfer model for clear sky solar irradiance and an empirical model based on geostationary satellite data for cloudy conditions. The results have been validated using 140 surface solar irradiance stations throughout the country. Model mean percentage error in hourly time series of global horizontal irradiance is only 0.73%, considering both clear and cloudy days. The simplicity and accuracy of the model over a wide range of solar conditions provides confidence that the model can be easily generalized to other regions of the world.
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