Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is one of the major causes of death worldwide. For improved accuracy of CVD prediction, risk classification was performed using national time-series health examination ...data. The data offers an opportunity to access deep learning (RNN-LSTM), which is widely known as an outstanding algorithm for analyzing time-series datasets. The objective of this study was to show the improved accuracy of deep learning by comparing the performance of a Cox hazard regression and RNN-LSTM based on survival analysis.
We selected 361,239 subjects (age 40 to 79 years) with more than two health examination records from 2002-2006 using the National Health Insurance System-National Health Screening Cohort (NHIS-HEALS). The average number of health screenings (from 2002-2013) used in the analysis was 2.9 ± 1.0. Two CVD prediction models were developed from the NHIS-HEALS data: a Cox hazard regression model and a deep learning model. In an internal validation of the NHIS-HEALS dataset, the Cox regression model showed a highest time-dependent area under the curve (AUC) of 0.79 (95% CI 0.70 to 0.87) for in females and 0.75 (95% CI 0.70 to 0.80) in males at 2 years. The deep learning model showed a highest time-dependent AUC of 0.94 (95% CI 0.91 to 0.97) for in females and 0.96 (95% CI 0.95 to 0.97) in males at 2 years. Layer-wise Relevance Propagation (LRP) revealed that age was the variable that had the greatest effect on CVD, followed by systolic blood pressure (SBP) and diastolic blood pressure (DBP), in that order.
The performance of the deep learning model for predicting CVD occurrences was better than that of the Cox regression model. In addition, it was confirmed that the known risk factors shown to be important by previous clinical studies were extracted from the study results using LRP.
Chagas disease (CD) is a major public health concern in Latin America and a potentially serious emerging threat in non-endemic countries. Although the association between CD and cardiac abnormalities ...is widely reported, study design diversity, sample size and quality challenge the information, calling for its update and synthesis, which would be very useful and relevant for physicians in non-endemic countries where health care implications of CD are real and neglected. We performed to systematically review and meta-analyze population-based studies that compared prevalence of overall and specific ECG abnormalities between CD and non-CD participants in the general population.
Six databases (EMBASE, Ovid Medline, Web of Science, Cochrane Central, Google Scholar and Lilacs) were searched systematically. Observational studies were included. Odds ratios (OR) were computed using random-effects model.
Forty-nine studies were selected, including 34,023(12,276 CD and 21,747 non-CD). Prevalence of overall ECG abnormalities was higher in participants with CD (40.1%; 95%CIs=39.2-41.0) compared to non-CD (24.1%; 95%CIs=23.5-24.7) (OR=2.78; 95%CIs=2.37-3.26). Among specific ECG abnormalities, prevalence of complete right bundle branch block (RBBB) (OR=4.60; 95%CIs=2.97-7.11), left anterior fascicular block (LAFB) (OR=1.60; 95%CIs=1.21-2.13), combination of complete RBBB/LAFB (OR=3.34; 95%CIs=1.76-6.35), first-degree atrioventricular block (A-V B) (OR=1.71; 95%CIs=1.25-2.33), atrial fibrillation (AF) or flutter (OR=2.11; 95%CIs=1.40-3.19) and ventricular extrasystoles (VE) (OR=1.62; 95%CIs=1.14-2.30) was higher in CD compared to non-CD participants.
This systematic review and meta-analysis provides an update and synthesis in this field. This research of observational studies indicates a significant excess in prevalence of ECG abnormalities (40.1%) related to T. cruzi infection in the general population from Chagas endemic regions, being the most common ventricular (RBBB and LAFB), and A-V B (first-degree) node conduction abnormalities as well as arrhythmias (AF or flutter and VE). Also, prevalence of ECG alterations in children was similar to that in adults and suggests earlier onset of cardiac disease.
Background Chronic Chagas Cardiomyopathy (CCM) is a unique form of cardiomyopathy compared to other etiologies of heart failure. In CCM, risk prediction based on biomarkers has not been well-studied. ...We assessed the prognostic value of a biomarker panel to predict a composite outcome (CO), including the need for heart transplantation, use of left ventricular assist devices, and mortality. Methods Prospective cohort study of 100 adults with different stages of CCM. Serum concentrations of amino-terminal pro-B type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), galectin-3 (Gal-3), neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin (NGAL), high sensitivity troponin T (hs-cTnT), soluble (sST2), and cystatin-C (Cys-c) were measured. Survival analyses were performed using Cox proportional hazard models. Results During a median follow-up of 52 months, the mortality rate was 20%, while the CO was observed in 25% of the patients. Four biomarkers (NT-proBNP, hs-cTnT, sST2, and Cys-C) were associated with the CO; concentrations of NT-proBNP and hs-cTnT were associated with the highest AUC (85.1 and 85.8, respectively). Combining these two biomarkers above their selected cut-off values significantly increased risk for the CO (HR 3.18; 95%CI 1.31-7.79). No events were reported in the patients in whom the two biomarkers were under the cut-off values, and when both levels were above cut-off values, the CO was observed in 60.71%. Conclusion The combination of NT-proBNP and hs-TnT above their selected cut-off values is associated with a 3-fold increase in the risk of the composite outcome among CCM patients. The use of cardiac biomarkers may improve prognostic evaluation of patients with CCM.
Objectives
To analyse the effect of parasite load assessed by quantitative reverse transcription PCR (RT‐qPCR) in serum on the prognosis of patients with chronic Chagas cardiomyopathy (CCM) after a ...2‐year follow‐up.
Methods
Prospective cohort study conducted between 2015 and 2017. One hundred patients with CCM were included. Basal parasitaemia levels of Trypanosoma cruzi (T. cruzi) were measured using a quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) test. The primary composite outcome (CO) was all‐cause mortality, cardiac transplantation and implantation of a left ventricular assist device. Secondary outcomes were the baseline levels of serum biomarkers and echocardiographic variables.
Results
After a 2 years of follow‐up, the primary CO rate was 16%. A positive qPCR was not associated with a higher risk of the CO. However, when parasitaemia was evaluated by comparing tertiles (tertile 1: undetectable parasitaemia, tertile 2: low parasitaemia and tertile 3: high parasitaemia), a higher risk of the CO (HR 3.66; 95% CI 1.11–12.21) was evidenced in tertile 2. Moreover, patients in tertile 2 had significantly higher levels of high‐sensitivity troponin T and cystatin C and more frequently exhibited an ejection fraction <50%.
Conclusion
Low parasitaemia was associated with severity markers of myocardial injury and a higher risk of the composite outcome when compared with undetectable parasitaemia. This finding could be hypothetically explained by a more vigorous immune response in patients with low parasitaemia that could decrease T. cruzi load more efficiently, but be associated with increased myocardial damage. Additional studies with a larger number of patients and cytokine measurement are required to support this hypothesis.
Objectifs
Analyser l'effet de la charge parasitaire évaluée par PCR quantitative de transcription inverse (RT‐qPCR) dans le sérum sur le pronostic des patients atteints de cardiomyopathie chronique de Chagas (CCM) après un suivi de deux ans.
Méthodes
Etude de cohorte prospective menée entre 2015 et 2017. Une centaine de patients atteints de CCM ont été inclus. Les niveaux de parasitémie basale de Trypanosoma cruzi (T. cruzi) ont été mesurés en utilisant un test de réaction en chaîne de la polymérase quantitative (qPCR). Le principal résultat composite (RC) était la mortalité toutes causes, la transplantation cardiaque et l'implantation d'un dispositif d'assistance ventriculaire gauche. Les critères secondaires étaient les niveaux de base des biomarqueurs sériques et des variables échocardiographiques.
Résultats
Après 2 ans de suivi, le taux de RC primaire était de 16%. Une qPCR positive n'était pas associée à un risque plus élevé de RC. Cependant, lorsque la parasitémie était évaluée en comparant les tertiles (tertile 1: parasitémie indétectable, tertile 2: parasitémie faible et tertile 3: parasitémie élevée), un risque plus élevé de RC (HR: 3,66; IC95%: 1,11–12,21) a été mis en évidence dans le tertile 2. De plus, les patients du tertile 2 avaient des niveaux significativement plus élevés de troponine T et de cystatine‐C à haute sensibilité et présentaient plus fréquemment une fraction d'éjection <50%.
Conclusion
Une faible parasitémie était associée à des marqueurs de sévérité des lésions myocardiques et à un risque plus élevé de résultat composite par rapport à une parasitémie indétectable. Cette découverte pourrait être hypothétiquement expliquée par une réponse immunitaire plus vigoureuse chez les patients présentant une faible parasitémie qui pourrait diminuer la charge de T. cruzi plus efficacement mais être associée à une augmentation des lésions myocardiques. Des études supplémentaires avec un plus grand nombre de patients et une mesure des cytokines sont nécessaires pour étayer cette hypothèse.
Evidence has pointed towards differences in the burden of arteriosclerosis according to its location and sex. Yet there is a scarcity of population-based data on aggregated sex-specific ...cardiovascular risk profiles, instead of single risk factors, and mortality risk according to the location of arteriosclerosis. We assessed sex-specific cardiovascular risk profiles and mortality risk associated with arteriosclerosis.
From the population-based Rotterdam Study, 2357 participants (mean age 69 years, 53% women) underwent non-contrast computed tomography to quantify calcification, as a proxy for arteriosclerosis, in the coronary arteries (CAC), aortic arch (AAC), extracranial (ECAC) and intracranial carotid arteries (ICAC), vertebrobasilar arteries (VBAC), and aortic valve (AVC). Principal component analysis (PCA) of eight distinct cardiovascular risk factors was performed, separately for women and men, to derive risk profiles based on the shared variance between factors. We used sex-stratified multivariable logistic regression to examine the associations between PCA-derived risk profiles and severe calcification at different locations. We investigated the associations of severe calcification with mortality risk using sex-stratified multivariable Cox regression.
PCA identified three cardiovascular risk profiles in both sexes: (1) anthropometry, glucose, and HDL cholesterol; (2) blood pressure; and (3) smoking and total cholesterol. In women, the strongest associations were found for profile 2 with severe ECAC and ICAC (adjusted OR 95% CI 1.32 1.14-1.53) and for profile 3 with severe at all locations, except AVC. In men, the strongest associations were found for profile 2 with VBAC (1.31 1.12-1.52) and profile 3 with severe AAC (1.28 1.09-1.51). ECAC and AVC in women and CAC in men showed the strongest, independent associations with cardiovascular mortality (HR 95% CI 2.11 1.22-3.66, 2.05 1.21-3.49, 2.24 1.21-3.78, respectively).
Our findings further underline the existence of sex- and location-specific differences in the etiology and consequences of arteriosclerosis. Future research should unravel which distinct pathological processes underlie differences in risk profiles for arteriosclerosis.
Long term survival after endovascular aortic aneurysm repair (EVAR) in octogenarians remains unclear. This was evaluated by comparing octogenarians after EVAR with a matched group of octogenarians ...without an abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) from the Rotterdam Study (RS). The influence of complications after EVAR on survival was also studied with the aim of identifying risk factors for the development of complications in octogenarians.
Using propensity score matching (PSM), 83 EVAR octogenarians were matched for comorbidities with 83 octogenarians from the RS, and survival was compared between these two groups using Cox proportional hazard analysis. Then, complications were studied, defined as cardiac or pulmonary, renal deterioration, access site bleeding, acute limb ischaemia or bowel ischaemia, within 30 days of surgery between 83 EVAR octogenarians and 475 EVAR non-octogenarians. Also, the difference in baseline characteristics between the octogenarians with and without complications after EVAR were studied, and survival was compared between the RS controls and the complicated and uncomplicated EVAR octogenarians separately.
The total EVAR octogenarian population did not show an increased mortality risk compared with RS octogenarian controls (hazard ratio HR 1.28, 95% confidence interval CI 0.84–1.97). Post-operative complications occurred in 22 octogenarians (27%) and 59 non-octogenarians (12.4%, p < .001), mainly cardiac, pulmonary, and bleeding complications. All baseline characteristics were similar in the complicated EVAR octogenarians compared with the uncomplicated EVAR octogenarians. After uncomplicated EVAR, octogenarians had a similar survival compared with the RS controls (HR 1.09, 95% CI 0.68–1.77), but after complicated EVAR their mortality risk increased significantly (HR 1.93, 95% CI 1.06–3.54).
After standard EVAR, the life expectancy of octogenarians is the same as that of a matched group from the general population without an AAA, provided they do not develop early post-operative complications. Patient selection and meticulous peri-operative care are key.
Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of death in women worldwide. The cardiovascular risk profile deteriorates after women enter menopause. By definition, women diagnosed with premature ...ovarian insufficiency (POI) experience menopause before 40 years of age, which may render these women even more susceptible to develop CVD later in life. However, prospective long-term follow up data of well phenotyped women with POI are scarce. In the current study we compare the CVD profile and risk of middle aged women previously diagnosed with POI, to a population based reference group matched for age and BMI.
We compared 123 women (age 49.0 (± 4.3) years) and diagnosed with POI 8.1 (IQR: 6.8-9.6) years earlier, with 123 population controls (age 49.4 (± 3.9) years). All women underwent an extensive standardized cardiovascular screening. We assessed CVD risk factors including waist circumference, BMI, blood pressure, lipid profile, pulse wave velocity (PWV), and the prevalence of diabetes mellitus, metabolic syndrome (MetS) and carotid intima media thickness (cIMT), in both women with POI and controls. We calculated the 10-year CVD Framingham Risk Score (FRS) and the American Heart Association's suggested cardiovascular health score (CHS). Waist circumference (90.0 (IQR: 83.0-98.0) versus 80.7 (IQR: 75.1-86.8), p < 0.01), waist-to-hip ratio (0.90 (IQR: 0.85-0.93) versus 0.79 (IQR: 0.75-0.83), p < 0.01), systolic blood pressure (124 (IQR 112-135) versus 120 (IQR109-131), p < 0.04) and diastolic blood pressure (81 (IQR: 76-89) versus 78 (IQR: 71-86), p < 0.01), prevalence of hypertension (45 (37%) versus 21 (17%), p < 0.01) and MetS (19 (16%) versus 4 (3%), p < 0.01) were all significantly increased in women with POI compared to healthy controls. Other risk factors, however, such as lipids, glucose levels and prevalence of diabetes were similar comparing women with POI versus controls. The arterial stiffness assessed by PWV was also similar in both populations (8.1 (IQR: 7.1-9.4) versus 7.9 (IQR: 7.1-8.4), p = 0.21). In addition, cIMT was lower in women with POI compared to controls (550 μm (500-615) versus 684 μm (618-737), p < 0.01). The calculated 10-year CVD risk was 5.9% (IQR: 3.7-10.6) versus 6.0% (IQR: 3.9-9.0) (p = 0.31) and current CHS was 6.1 (1.9) versus 6.5 (1.6) (p = 0.07), respectively in POI versus controls.
Middle age women with POI presented with more unfavorable cardiovascular risk factors (increased waist circumference and a higher prevalence of hypertension and MetS) compared to age and BMI matched population controls. In contrast, the current study reveals a lower cIMT and similar 10-year cardiovascular disease risk and cardiovascular health score. In summary, neither signs of premature atherosclerosis nor a worse cardiovascular disease risk or health score were observed among middle age women with POI compared to population controls. Longer-term follow-up studies of women of more advanced age are warranted to establish whether women with POI are truly at increased risk of developing CVD events later in life.
ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02616510.
Cardiovascular disease is the first cause of death globally with myocardial infarction as the main event. Heart rate variability (HRV) has been associated with an increased risk of mortality ...post-myocardial infarction. However, which indices of heart rate variability are the best predictors for total and cardiac mortality post-myocardial infarction remains unclear. We performed a systematic review to evaluate this association.
PubMed, Google Scholar, Embase and Cochrane databases were searched for studies with HRV as a predictive mortality marker. Two authors independently selected papers and extracted data and disagreements were solved with a third author. HRV indices included were SDNN, SDANN, HRV index, Total power, RMSSD, LF, HF, ULF, VLF, and LF/HF. For these clinical and statistical heterogeneity was assessed, forest and funnel plot graphs were made and sensitivity analysis, cumulative and regression meta-analysis were performed. Stata 16 was used for statistical analysis.
Out of 19.960 articles found, 332 were initially selected for abstract screening and 27 finally fulfilled the criteria and allowed the extraction of data. After a sensitivity analysis, low values of SDNN, HRV index, ULF, VLF, Total Power, LF, LF/HF ratio and HF showed a statistically significant association with cardiac mortality, but SDNN index had the highest association (RR 4.19, CI95% 3.36–5.22, I2 39.7%). For total mortality, HRV index, VLF, ULF, LF, Total power, SDNNN, LF/HF ratio, HF were significantly associated, but HRV index was the index with highest association, (RR 3.60, CI95% 2.30–5.64, I2 27.5%).
Based on a sensitivity analysis, the best index associated with cardiac mortality post-myocardial infarction is low values of SDNN and for total mortality is low values of HRV index.
•Low heart rate variability has a higher risk of mortality post-myocardial infarction.•There has been controversy about which variability indices are the best predictors.•Previous studies show high clinical and statistical heterogeneity.•Statistical and clinical heterogeneity analysis offer a greater validity of results.•HRV index and SDNN have the highest association with total and cardiac mortality post-MI, respectively.
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