Previous Paleoclimate Model Intercomparison Project (PMIP) simulations of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) showed dissimilar results on transports and ...structure. Here we analyze the most recent PMIP3 models, which show a consistent increase (on average by 41 ± 26%) and deepening (663 ± 550 m) of the AMOC with respect to preindustrial simulations, in contrast to some reconstructions from proxy data. Simulations run with the University of Victoria (UVic) ocean circulation model suggest that this is caused by changes in the Northern Hemisphere wind stress, brought about by the presence of ice sheets over North America in the LGM. When forced with LGM wind stress anomalies from PMIP3 models, the UVic model responds with an increase of the northward salt transport in the North Atlantic, which strengthens North Atlantic Deep Water formation and the AMOC. These results improve our understanding of the LGM AMOC's driving forces and suggest that some ocean mechanisms may not be correctly represented in PMIP3 models or some proxy data may need reinterpretation.
Key Points
PMIP3 models show an increase in transport and deepening of the AMOC in the LGM
This result contradicts some observations from proxy data in sediments
A circulation model indicates that the increment may be due to wind stress
Reorganizations of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation were associated with large and abrupt climatic changes in the North Atlantic region during the last glacial period. Projections with ...climate models suggest that similar reorganizations may also occur in response to anthropogenic global warming. Here I use ensemble simulations with a coupled climate-ecosytem model of intermediate complexity to investigate the possible consequences of such disturbances to the marine ecosystem. In the simulations, a disruption of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation leads to a collapse of the North Atlantic plankton stocks to less than half of their initial biomass, owing to rapid shoaling of winter mixed layers and their associated separation from the deep ocean nutrient reservoir. Globally integrated export production declines by more than 20 per cent owing to reduced upwelling of nutrient-rich deep water and gradual depletion of upper ocean nutrient concentrations. These model results are consistent with the available high-resolution palaeorecord, and suggest that global ocean productivity is sensitive to changes in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation.
Circulation changes have been suggested to play an important role in the sequestration of atmospheric CO2 in the glacial ocean. However, previous studies have resulted in contradictory results ...regarding the strength of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and three-dimensional, quantitative reconstructions of the glacial ocean constrained by multiple proxies remain scarce. Here we simulate the modern and glacial ocean using a coupled physical-biogeochemical, global, three-dimensional model constrained simultaneously by δ13C, radiocarbon, and δ15N to explore the effects of AMOC differences and Southern Ocean iron fertilization on the distributions of these isotopes and ocean carbon storage. We show that δ13C and radiocarbon data sparsely sampled at the locations of existing glacial sediment cores can be used to reconstruct the modern AMOC accurately. Applying this method to the glacial ocean we find that a surprisingly weak (6–9 Sv or about half of today's) and shallow AMOC maximizes carbon storage and best reproduces the sediment isotope data. Increasing the atmospheric soluble iron flux in the model's Southern Ocean intensifies export production, carbon storage, and further improves agreement with δ13C and δ15N reconstructions. Our best fitting simulation is a significant improvement compared with previous studies, and suggests that both circulation and export production changes were necessary to maximize carbon storage in the glacial ocean.
•Isotope reconstructions are used to constrain the glacial ocean circulation.•A weak, shallow AMOC and voluminous AABW best reproduce the glacial isotopes.•Higher Southern Ocean export production improve the agreement with reconstructions.•Our best-fitting model to the glacial isotopes maximizes glacial ocean carbon storage.
Glacial periods exhibit abrupt Dansgaard‐Oeschger (DO) climatic oscillations that are thought to be linked to instabilities in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). Great ...uncertainty remains regarding the dynamics of the DO cycle, as well as controls on the timing and duration of individual events. Using ice core data we show that the duration of warm (interstadial) periods is strongly correlated with Antarctic climate, and presumably with Southern Ocean (SO) temperature and the position of the Southern Hemisphere (SH) westerlies. We propose a SO control on AMOC stability and interstadial duration via the rate of Antarctic bottom water formation, meridional density/pressure gradients, Agulhas Leakage, and SO adiabatic upwelling. This hypothesis is supported by climate model experiments that demonstrate SO warming leads to a stronger AMOC that is less susceptible to freshwater perturbations. In the AMOC stability diagram, SO warming and strengthening of the SH westerlies both shift the vigorous AMOC branch toward higher freshwater values, thus raising the threshold for AMOC collapse. The proposed mechanism could provide a consistent explanation for several diverse observations, including maximum DO activity during intermediate ice volume/SH temperature, and successively shorter DO durations within each Bond cycle. It may further have implications for the fate of the AMOC under future global warming.
Key Points
DO interstadial duration is strongly correlated with Antarctic temperature
Warming (cooling) the SO in model simulations strengthens (weakens) the AMOC
We propose SH climate control on AMOC stability and DO timing
The covariation of carbon dioxide (CO(2)) concentration and temperature in Antarctic ice-core records suggests a close link between CO(2) and climate during the Pleistocene ice ages. The role and ...relative importance of CO(2) in producing these climate changes remains unclear, however, in part because the ice-core deuterium record reflects local rather than global temperature. Here we construct a record of global surface temperature from 80 proxy records and show that temperature is correlated with and generally lags CO(2) during the last (that is, the most recent) deglaciation. Differences between the respective temperature changes of the Northern Hemisphere and Southern Hemisphere parallel variations in the strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation recorded in marine sediments. These observations, together with transient global climate model simulations, support the conclusion that an antiphased hemispheric temperature response to ocean circulation changes superimposed on globally in-phase warming driven by increasing CO(2) concentrations is an explanation for much of the temperature change at the end of the most recent ice age.
Constraining the response time of the climate system to changes in North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) formation is fundamental to improving climate and Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation ...predictability. Here we report a new synchronization of terrestrial, marine, and ice-core records, which allows the first quantitative determination of the response time of North Atlantic climate to changes in high-latitude NADW formation rate during the last deglaciation. Using a continuous record of deep water ventilation from the Nordic Seas, we identify a ∼400-year lead of changes in high-latitude NADW formation ahead of abrupt climate changes recorded in Greenland ice cores at the onset and end of the Younger Dryas stadial, which likely occurred in response to gradual changes in temperature- and wind-driven freshwater transport. We suggest that variations in Nordic Seas deep-water circulation are precursors to abrupt climate changes and that future model studies should address this phasing.
A new model of global climate, ocean circulation, ecosystems, and biogeochemical cycling, including a fully coupled carbon cycle, is presented and evaluated. The model is consistent with multiple ...observational data sets from the past 50 years as well as with the observed warming of global surface air and sea temperatures during the last 150 years. It is applied to a simulation of the coming two millennia following a business‐as‐usual scenario of anthropogenic CO2 emissions (SRES A2 until year 2100 and subsequent linear decrease to zero until year 2300, corresponding to a total release of 5100 GtC). Atmospheric CO2 increases to a peak of more than 2000 ppmv near year 2300 (that is an airborne fraction of 72% of the emissions) followed by a gradual decline to ∼1700 ppmv at year 4000 (airborne fraction of 56%). Forty‐four percent of the additional atmospheric CO2 at year 4000 is due to positive carbon cycle–climate feedbacks. Global surface air warms by ∼10°C, sea ice melts back to 10% of its current area, and the circulation of the abyssal ocean collapses. Subsurface oxygen concentrations decrease, tripling the volume of suboxic water and quadrupling the global water column denitrification. We estimate 60 ppb increase in atmospheric N2O concentrations owing to doubling of its oceanic production, leading to a weak positive feedback and contributing about 0.24°C warming at year 4000. Global ocean primary production almost doubles by year 4000. Planktonic biomass increases at high latitudes and in the subtropics whereas it decreases at midlatitudes and in the tropics. In our model, which does not account for possible direct impacts of acidification on ocean biology, production of calcium carbonate in the surface ocean doubles, further increasing surface ocean and atmospheric pCO2. This represents a new positive feedback mechanism and leads to a strengthening of the positive interaction between climate change and the carbon cycle on a multicentennial to millennial timescale. Changes in ocean biology become important for the ocean carbon uptake after year 2600, and at year 4000 they account for 320 ppmv or 22% of the atmospheric CO2 increase since the preindustrial era.
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