Surface temperature reconstructions of the past 1500 years suggest that recent warming is unprecedented in that time. Here we provide a broader perspective by reconstructing regional and global ...temperature anomalies for the past 11,300 years from 73 globally distributed records. Early Holocene (10,000 to 5000 years ago) warmth is followed by ∼0.7°C cooling through the middle to late Holocene (<5000 years ago), culminating in the coolest temperatures of the Holocene during the Little Ice Age, about 200 years ago. This cooling is largely associated with ∼2°C change in the North Atlantic. Current global temperatures of the past decade have not yet exceeded peak interglacial values but are warmer than during ∼75% of the Holocene temperature history. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change model projections for 2100 exceed the full distribution of Holocene temperature under all plausible greenhouse gas emission scenarios.
While the abrupt climate events of the last deglaciation are well defined in ice core records from the polar regions of both hemispheres, their manifestation elsewhere is less well constrained. Here ...we compile 104 high-resolution paleoclimate records to characterize the timing and spatial pattern of climate change during the last deglaciation. This compilation indicates relatively concurrent timing of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; peak glacial conditions) and the Altithermal (peak interglacial conditions) in the Northern (22.1
±
4.3
ka and 8.0
±
3.2
ka) and Southern (22.3
±
3.6
ka and 7.4
±
3.7
ka) Hemispheres, suggesting the hemispheres were synchronized by greenhouse gases, local insolation, and/or Northern Hemisphere induced ocean circulation changes. The magnitude of the glacial–interglacial temperature change increases with latitude, reflecting the polar amplification of climate change, with a likely minimum global mean cooling of ∼−4.9
°C during the LGM relative to the Altithermal.
Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of 71 records spanning 19–11
ka indicates that two modes explain 72% of deglacial climate variability. EOF1 (61% of variance) shows a globally near-uniform pattern, with its principal component (PC1) strongly correlated with changes in atmospheric CO
2. EOF2 (11% of variance) exhibits a bipolar seesaw pattern between the hemispheres, with its principal component (PC2) resembling changes in Atlantic meridional overturning circulation strength. EOF analysis of 90 records from 15 to 11
ka indicates that northern and southern modes of climate variability characterize the Younger Dryas-Bølling/Allerød interval. These modes dominate at the higher latitudes of each hemisphere and exhibit a complex interaction in the tropics. The magnitude of the Younger Dryas climate anomaly (cooler/drier) increases with latitude in the Northern Hemisphere, with an opposite pattern (warmer/wetter) in the Southern Hemisphere reflecting a general bipolar seesaw climate response. Global mean temperature decreased by ∼0.6
°C during the Younger Dryas. Therefore, our analysis supports the paradigm that while the Younger Dryas was a period of global climate change, it was not a major global cooling event but rather a manifestation of the bipolar seesaw driven by a reduction in Atlantic meridional overturning circulation strength.
The covariation of carbon dioxide (CO(2)) concentration and temperature in Antarctic ice-core records suggests a close link between CO(2) and climate during the Pleistocene ice ages. The role and ...relative importance of CO(2) in producing these climate changes remains unclear, however, in part because the ice-core deuterium record reflects local rather than global temperature. Here we construct a record of global surface temperature from 80 proxy records and show that temperature is correlated with and generally lags CO(2) during the last (that is, the most recent) deglaciation. Differences between the respective temperature changes of the Northern Hemisphere and Southern Hemisphere parallel variations in the strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation recorded in marine sediments. These observations, together with transient global climate model simulations, support the conclusion that an antiphased hemispheric temperature response to ocean circulation changes superimposed on globally in-phase warming driven by increasing CO(2) concentrations is an explanation for much of the temperature change at the end of the most recent ice age.
The Last Glacial Maximum Clark, Peter U.; Dyke, Arthur S.; Shakun, Jeremy D. ...
Science (American Association for the Advancement of Science),
08/2009, Letnik:
325, Številka:
5941
Journal Article
Recenzirano
We used 5704 ¹⁴C, ¹⁰Be, and ³He ages that span the interval from 10,000 to 50,000 years ago (10 to 50 ka) to constrain the timing of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) in terms of global ice-sheet and ...mountain-glacier extent. Growth of the ice sheets to their maximum positions occurred between 33.0 and 26.5 ka in response to climate forcing from decreases in northern summer insolation, tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures, and atmospheric CO₂. Nearly all ice sheets were at their LGM positions from 26.5 ka to 19 to 20 ka, corresponding to minima in these forcings. The onset of Northern Hemisphere deglaciation 19 to 20 ka was induced by an increase in northern summer insolation, providing the source for an abrupt rise in sea level. The onset of deglaciation of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet occurred between 14 and 15 ka, consistent with evidence that this was the primary source for an abrupt rise in sea level ∼14.5 ka.
According to the Milankovitch theory, changes in summer insolation in the high-latitude Northern Hemisphere caused glacial cycles through their impact on ice-sheet mass balance. Statistical analyses ...of long climate records supported this theory, but they also posed a substantial challenge by showing that changes in Southern Hemisphere climate were in phase with or led those in the north. Although an orbitally forced Northern Hemisphere signal may have been transmitted to the Southern Hemisphere, insolation forcing can also directly influence local Southern Hemisphere climate, potentially intensified by sea-ice feedback, suggesting that the hemispheres may have responded independently to different aspects of orbital forcing. Signal processing of climate records cannot distinguish between these conditions, however, because the proposed insolation forcings share essentially identical variability. Here we use transient simulations with a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model to identify the impacts of forcing from changes in orbits, atmospheric CO(2) concentration, ice sheets and the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) on hemispheric temperatures during the first half of the last deglaciation (22-14.3 kyr BP). Although based on a single model, our transient simulation with only orbital changes supports the Milankovitch theory in showing that the last deglaciation was initiated by rising insolation during spring and summer in the mid-latitude to high-latitude Northern Hemisphere and by terrestrial snow-albedo feedback. The simulation with all forcings best reproduces the timing and magnitude of surface temperature evolution in the Southern Hemisphere in deglacial proxy records. AMOC changes associated with an orbitally induced retreat of Northern Hemisphere ice sheets is the most plausible explanation for the early Southern Hemisphere deglacial warming and its lead over Northern Hemisphere temperature; the ensuing rise in atmospheric CO(2) concentration provided the critical feedback on global deglaciation.
Assessing the impact of future anthropogenic carbon emissions is currently impeded by uncertainties in our knowledge of equilibrium climate sensitivity to atmospheric carbon dioxide doubling. ...Previous studies suggest 3 kelvin (K) as the best estimate, 2 to 4.5 K as the 66% probability range, and nonzero probabilities for much higher values, the latter implying a small chance of high-impact climate changes that would be difficult to avoid. Here, combining extensive sea and land surface temperature reconstructions from the Last Glacial Maximum with climate model simulations, we estimate a lower median (2.3 K) and reduced uncertainty (1.7 to 2.6 K as the 66% probability range, which can be widened using alternate assumptions or data subsets). Assuming that paleoclimatic constraints apply to the future, as predicted by our model, these results imply a lower probability of imminent extreme climatic change than previously thought.
Global climate evolution during the last deglaciation Clark, Peter U; Shakun, Jeremy D; Baker, Paul A ...
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences - PNAS,
05/2012, Letnik:
109, Številka:
19
Journal Article
Recenzirano
Odprti dostop
Deciphering the evolution of global climate from the end of the Last Glacial Maximum approximately 19 ka to the early Holocene 11 ka presents an outstanding opportunity for understanding the ...transient response of Earth’s climate system to external and internal forcings. During this interval of global warming, the decay of ice sheets caused global mean sea level to rise by approximately 80 m; terrestrial and marine ecosystems experienced large disturbances and range shifts; perturbations to the carbon cycle resulted in a net release of the greenhouse gases CO2 and CH4 to the atmosphere; and changes in atmosphere and ocean circulation affected the global distribution and fluxes of water and heat. Here we summarize a major effort by the paleoclimate research community to characterize these changes through the development of well-dated, high-resolution records of the deep and intermediate ocean as well as surface climate. Our synthesis indicates that the superposition of two modes explains much of the variability in regional and global climate during the last deglaciation, with a strong association between the first mode and variations in greenhouse gases, and between the second mode and variations in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation.
High‐resolution records from past interglacial climates help constrain future responses to global warming, yet are rare. Here, we produce seasonally resolved climate records from subarctic‐Canada ...using micron‐scale measurements of oxygen isotopes (δ18O) in speleothems with apparent annual growth bands from three interglacial periods—Marine Isotope Stages (MIS) 11, 9, and 5e. We find 3‰ lower δ18O values during MIS 11 than MIS 5e, despite MIS 11 likely being warmer. We explore controls on high‐latitude speleothem δ18O and suggest low MIS 11 δ18O values reflect greater contribution of cold‐season precipitation to dripwater from longer annual ground thaw durations. Other potential influences include changes in precipitation source and/or increased fraction of cold‐season precipitation from diminished sea ice in MIS 11. Our study highlights the potential for high‐latitude speleothems to yield detailed isotopic records of Northern Hemisphere interglacial climates beyond the reach of Greenland ice cores and offers a framework for interpreting them.
Plain Language Summary
Few climate records pre‐dating the last ice age exist from high‐latitude North America, which inhibits our understanding of how regions with permafrost responded to past warming and how they might change in the future. Here, we help fill this data gap by using six speleothems (cave mineral deposits) from a cave in the Northwest Territories, Canada to produce climate records that span thousands of years during former warm periods of Earth's history. We find that speleothems that grew during an exceptionally warm super‐interglacial period 400,000 years ago have 3‰ lower oxygen isotope (δ18O) values compared to those that grew during a likely cooler interglacial 125,000 years ago. We explore potential explanations for the difference in δ18O across interglacials, and suggest that lower δ18O values during warmer periods reflect greater infiltration of cool‐season precipitation with longer annual ground thaw durations. This study highlights the importance of high‐latitude speleothems to provide detailed climate records beyond the range available from Greenland ice cores.
Key Points
Long high‐latitude terrestrial climate records are rare in the Northern Hemisphere
High‐latitude speleothems can provide ultra‐high‐resolution climate records beyond the reach of Greenland ice cores
Mean oxygen isotopes of Arctic and subarctic speleothems likely are controlled by annual ground thaw durations
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