The Level of Service/Case Management Inventory (LS/CMI) is one of the most frequently used tools to assess criminogenic risk–need in justice-involved individuals. Meta-analytic research demonstrates ...strong predictive accuracy for various recidivism outcomes. In this exploratory study, we applied machine learning (ML) algorithms (decision trees, random forests, and support vector machines) to a data set with nearly 100,000 LS/CMI administrations to provincial corrections clientele in Ontario, Canada, and approximately 3 years follow-up. The overall accuracies and areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUCs) were comparable, although ML outperformed LS/CMI in terms of predictive accuracy for the middle scores where it is hardest to predict the recidivism outcome. Moreover, ML improved the AUCs for individual scores to near 0.60, from 0.50 for the LS/CMI, indicating that ML also improves the ability to rank individuals according to their probability of recidivating. Potential considerations, applications, and future directions are discussed.
Purpose of Review
We review the issues, controversies, and main findings from the sexual violence risk assessment literature with Indigenous men. An argument is presented for the incorporation of ...structured and validated risk assessment measures as part of a comprehensive assessment to inform risk management and the prevention of sexual violence.
Recent Findings
Extant research demonstrates that Canadian Indigenous men convicted for sexual offenses tend to score higher on sexual violence risk measures and to have higher rates of sexual and violent recidivism. Established static and dynamic tools, however, have moderate predictive accuracy for sexual and violent recidivism and changes in risk from treatment or other change agents are associated with decreases in recidivism. Static-99R and the Violence Risk Scale-Sexual Offense version demonstrate acceptable properties of calibration for indigenous men with respect to sexual recidivism, although Indigenous men continue to show higher rates of violent recidivism associated with risk scores.
Summary
The extant literature provides support for the discrimination and calibration properties of established static and dynamic sexual violence risk tools with Indigenous men; use of a dynamic tool is critical to inform risk management interventions and evaluate change. Risk measures are one component of a comprehensive and integrated assessment process that incorporates responsivity considerations, conducted in a culturally competent, ethical, and humane manner.
We present analyses of deep radio observations of M83 taken with the Very Large Array spanning 15 yr, including never-before-published observations from 1990 and 1998. We report on the evolution of ...55 individual point sources, which include four of the six known historical supernovae in this galaxy. A total of 10 sources have X-ray counterparts from a Chandra survey. Each of these sources show nonthermal spectral indices, and most appear to be X-ray supernova remnants. Comparing the radio source list to surveys in the optical and X-ray, we identify three optical/X-ray supernova remnants. Nearly half of the detected radio sources in these observations are coincident with known H II regions lying in the spiral arm structures of the galaxy. We also report on changes in emission from the complex nuclear region, which has shown variability at 20 cm wavelengths. We confirm that the peak radio emission from the nucleus is not coincident with the known optical center. One lesser nuclear peak is consistent with the optical/IR nucleus. Previous dynamical studies of a 'dark' nuclear mass indicate a possible match to other radio nuclear emission regions in M83.
Purpose of Review
We provide a review and synthesis of the sexual offense treatment change literature with implications for dynamic sexual violence risk assessment and management. An argument is ...presented for the need for a dynamic approach in research and practice, and that for change to be prognostic, such changes need to be risk relevant and to come from credible change agents.
Recent Findings
Extant research demonstrates that changes on psychologically meaningful dimensions of risk and need (e.g., sexual deviance; attitudes and cognitions; anger, aggression, and hostility) tend to be associated with reductions in sexual and other forms of recidivism; however, changes in domains less germane to risk and need tend not to be (e.g., empathy, mental health and well-being). Formalized dynamic sexual offense risk measures can be administered at multiple time points to reliably measure changes in sexual violence risk. Change information can then be used systematically to adjust risk appraisals.
Summary
The extant literature supports the dynamic nature of sexual violence risk. Working toward the routine assessment of change with psychometrically sound measures, and integrating this information into risk management interventions, can not only improve lives and reduce sexual violence but is an ethical and human responsibility.
We present newly reduced archival radio observations of SN 1996cr in the Circinus Galaxy from the Australia Telescope Compact Array and the Molonglo Observatory Synthesis Telescope, and attempt to ...model its radio light curves using recent hydrodynamical simulations of the interaction between the supernova (SN) ejecta and the circumstellar material (CSM) at X-ray wavelengths. The radio data within the first 1000 d show clear signs of free-free absorption (FFA), which decreases gradually and is minimal above 1.4 GHz after day ∼3000. Constraints on the FFA optical depth provide estimates of the CSM free electron density, which allows insight into the ionization of SN 1996cr's CSM and offers a test on the density distribution adopted by the hydrodynamical simulation. The intrinsic spectral index of the radiation shows evidence for spectral flattening, which is characterized by α = 0.852 ± 0.002 at day 3000 and a decay rate of Δα = −0.014 ± 0.001 yr−1. The striking similarity in the spectral flattening of SN 1987A, SN 1993J and SN 1996cr suggests this may be a relatively common feature of SNe/CSM shocks. We adopt this spectral index variation to model the synchrotron radio emission of the shock, and consider several scalings that relate the parameters of the hydrodynamical simulation to the magnetic field and electron distribution. The simulated light curves match the large-scale features of the observed light curves, but fail to match certain tightly constraining sections. This suggests that simple energy density scalings may not be able to account for the complexities of the true physical processes at work, or alternatively, that the parameters of the simulation require modification in order to accurately represent the surroundings of SN 1996cr.
Perceived time is inherently malleable. For example, adaptation to relatively long or short sensory events leads to a repulsive aftereffect such that subsequent events appear to be contracted or ...expanded (duration adaptation). Perceived visual duration can also be distorted via concurrent presentation of discrepant auditory durations (multisensory integration). The neural loci of both distortions remain unknown. In the current study we use a psychophysical approach to establish their relative positioning within the sensory processing hierarchy. We show that audiovisual integration induces marked distortions of perceived visual duration. We proceed to use these distorted durations as visual adapting stimuli yet find subsequent visual duration aftereffects to be consistent with physical rather than perceived visual duration. Conversely, the concurrent presentation of adapted auditory durations with nonadapted visual durations results in multisensory integration patterns consistent with perceived, rather than physical, auditory duration. These results demonstrate that recent sensory history modifies human duration perception prior to the combination of temporal information across sensory modalities and provides support for adaptation mechanisms mediated by duration selective neurons situated in early areas of the visual and auditory nervous system (Aubie, Sayegh, & Faure, 2012; Duysens, Schaafsma, & Orban, 1996; Leary, Edwards, & Rose, 2008).
We present results on the X-ray and optical/UV emission from the Type II-P supernova (SN) 2006bp and the interaction of the SN shock with its environment, obtained with the X-Ray Telescope (XRT) and ...UV/Optical Telescope (UVOT) on board Swift. SN 2006bp is detected in X-rays at a 4.5 sigma level of significance in the merged XRT data from days 1 to 12 after the explosion. If the 0.2-10 keV band X-ray luminosity of L sub(0.2-) unk= (1.8 plus or minus 0.4) x 10 super(39) ergs s super(-1) is caused by interaction of the SN shock with circumstellar material (CSM) deposited by a stellar wind from the progenitor's companion star, a mass-loss rate of M approximately (1 x 10 super(-5) M unk yr super(-1))(v sub(w)/10 km s super(-1)) is inferred. The mass-loss rate is consistent with the nondetectlon in the radio with the VLA on days 2, 9, and 11 after the explosion and is characteristic of a red superglant progenitor with a mass of approximately 12-15 M unk prior to the explosion. The Swift data further show a fading of the X-ray emission starting around day 12 after the explosion. In combination with a follow-up XMM-Newton observation obtained on day 21 after the explosion, an X-ray rate of decline of Lx unk 1 unk with index n = 1.2 plus or minus 0.6 is inferred. Since no other SN has been detected in X-rays prior to the optical peak, and since Type II-P SNe have an extended "plateau" phase in the optical, we discuss the scenario that the X-rays might be due to inverse Compton scattering of photospheric optical photons off relativistic electrons produced in circumstellar shocks. However, due to the high required value of the Lorentz factor ( approximately 10-100), which is inconsistent with the ejecta velocity inferred from optical line widths, we conclude that inverse Compton scattering is an unlikely explanation for the observed X-ray emission.
Emission from discrete point sources dominates the X-ray luminosity in spiral galaxies. We present results from a survey of 11 nearby, nearly face-on spiral galaxies with the Chandra X-ray ...Observatory. These galaxies span the Hubble sequence for spirals, allowing insights into the X-ray source population of many diverse systems. In this paper, we present source lists for the 11 galaxies along with fluxes, luminosities, X-ray colors, and variability properties. We briefly discuss X-ray luminosity functions and how they relate to star formation of the host galaxies. We also discuss source colors and variability and what these can tell us about the composition of the X-ray source population.
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