Climate change has been and will be accompanied by widespread changes in surface temperature. It is clear that these changes include global-wide increases in mean surface temperature and changes in ...temperature variance that are more regionally-dependent
. It is less clear whether they also include changes in the persistence of surface temperature. This is important as the effects of weather events on ecosystems and society depend critically on the length of the event. Here we provide an extensive survey of the response of surface temperature persistence to climate change over the twenty-first century from the output of 150 simulations run on four different Earth system models, and from simulations run on simplified models with varying representations of radiative processes and large-scale dynamics. Together, the results indicate that climate change simulations are marked by widespread changes in surface temperature persistence that are generally most robust over ocean areas and arise due to a seemingly broad range of physical processes. The findings point to both the robustness of widespread changes in persistence under climate change, and the critical need to better understand, simulate and constrain such changes.
Internal variability in the climate system gives rise to large uncertainty in projections of future climate. The uncertainty in future climate due to internal climate variability can be estimated ...fromlarge ensembles of climate change simulations in which the experiment setup is the same from one ensemble member to the next but for small perturbations in the initial atmospheric state. However, large ensembles are invariably computationally expensive and susceptible to model bias.
Here the authors outline an alternative approach for assessing the role of internal variability in future climate based on a simple analytic model and the statistics of the unforced climate variability. The analytic model is derived from the standard error of the regression and assumes that the statistics of the internal variability are roughly Gaussian and stationary in time. When applied to the statistics of an unforced control simulation, the analytic model provides a remarkably robust estimate of the uncertainty in future climate indicated by a large ensemble of climate change simulations. To the extent that observations can be used to estimate the amplitude of internal climate variability, it is argued that the uncertainty in future climate trends due to internal variability can be robustly estimated from the statistics of the observed climate.
The steady-state extratropical atmospheric response to thermal forcing is investigated in a simple atmospheric general circulation model. The thermal forcings qualitatively mimic three key aspects of ...anthropogenic climate change: warming in the tropical troposphere, cooling in the polar stratosphere, and warming at the polar surface. The principal novel findings are the following:
1) Warming in the tropical troposphere drives two robust responses in the model extratropical circulation: poleward shifts in the extratropical tropospheric storm tracks and a weakened stratospheric Brewer–Dobson circulation. The former result suggests heating in the tropical troposphere plays a fundamental role in the poleward contraction of the storm tracks found in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)-class climate change simulations; the latter result is in the opposite sense of the trends in the Brewer–Dobson circulation found in most previous climate change experiments.
2) Cooling in the polar stratosphere also drives a poleward shift in the extratropical storm tracks. The tropospheric response is largely consistent with that found in previous studies, but it is shown to be very sensitive to the level and depth of the forcing. In the stratosphere, the Brewer–Dobson circulation weakens at midlatitudes, but it strengthens at high latitudes because of anomalously poleward heat fluxes on the flank of the polar vortex.
3) Warming at the polar surface drives an equatorward shift of the storm tracks. The storm-track response to polar warming is in the opposite sense of the response to tropical tropospheric heating; hence large warming over the Arctic may act to attenuate the response of the Northern Hemisphere storm track to tropical heating.
4) The signs of the tropospheric and stratospheric responses to all thermal forcings considered here are robust to seasonal changes in the basic state, but the amplitude and details of the responses exhibit noticeable differences between equinoctial and wintertime conditions. Additionally, the responses exhibit marked nonlinearity in the sense that the response to multiple thermal forcings applied simultaneously is quantitatively different from the sum of the responses to the same forcings applied independently. Thus the response of the model to a given thermal forcing is demonstrably dependent on the other thermal forcings applied to the model.
Genome editing by Cas9, which cleaves double-stranded DNA at a sequence programmed by a short single-guide RNA (sgRNA), can result in off-target DNA modification that may be detrimental in some ...applications. To improve DNA cleavage specificity, we generated fusions of catalytically inactive Cas9 and FokI nuclease (fCas9). DNA cleavage by fCas9 requires association of two fCas9 monomers that simultaneously bind target sites ∼15 or 25 base pairs apart. In human cells, fCas9 modified target DNA sites with >140-fold higher specificity than wild-type Cas9 and with an efficiency similar to that of paired Cas9 'nickases', recently engineered variants that cleave only one DNA strand per monomer. The specificity of fCas9 was at least fourfold higher than that of paired nickases at loci with highly similar off-target sites. Target sites that conform to the substrate requirements of fCas9 occur on average every 34 bp in the human genome, suggesting the versatility of this approach for highly specific genome-wide editing.
Data sets used to monitor the Earth's climate indicate that the surface of the Earth warmed from ∼1910 to 1940, cooled slightly from ∼1940 to 1970, and then warmed markedly from ∼1970 onward. The ...weak cooling apparent in the middle part of the century has been interpreted in the context of a variety of physical factors, such as atmosphere-ocean interactions and anthropogenic emissions of sulphate aerosols. Here we call attention to a previously overlooked discontinuity in the record at 1945, which is a prominent feature of the cooling trend in the mid-twentieth century. The discontinuity is evident in published versions of the global-mean temperature time series, but stands out more clearly after the data are filtered for the effects of internal climate variability. We argue that the abrupt temperature drop of ∼0.3 °C in 1945 is the apparent result of uncorrected instrumental biases in the sea surface temperature record. Corrections for the discontinuity are expected to alter the character of mid-twentieth century temperature variability but not estimates of the century-long trend in global-mean temperatures.
There is a great need to develop rail networks over long distances and within cities as more sustainable transport options. However, noise and vibration are seen as a negative environmental ...consequence. Compared with airborne noise, the related problem of ground vibration is much more complex. The properties of the ground vary significantly from one location to another. There is no common assessment criterion or measurement quantity and no equivalent to the noise maps. Ground-borne vibration is transmitted into buildings and perceived either as feelable whole-body vibration or as low frequency noise; it can also affect sensitive equipment but it is generally at a level that is too low to cause structural or cosmetic damage to buildings. A review is given of evaluation criteria for both feelable vibration and ground-borne noise, empirical and numerical prediction methods, the main vehicle and track parameters that can affect the vibration levels and a range of possible mitigation methods.
A new data set of middle- and upper-stratospheric temperatures based on reprocessing of satellite radiances provides a view of stratospheric climate change during the period 1979-2005 that is ...strikingly different from that provided by earlier data sets. The new data call into question our understanding of observed stratospheric temperature trends and our ability to test simulations of the stratospheric response to emissions of greenhouse gases and ozone-depleting substances. Here we highlight the important issues raised by the new data and suggest how the climate science community can resolve them.
Climate variability in the high-latitude Southern Hemisphere (SH) is dominated by the SH annular mode, a large-scale pattern of variability characterized by fluctuations in the strength of the ...circumpolar vortex. We present evidence that recent trends in the SH tropospheric circulation can be interpreted as a bias toward the high-index polarity of this pattern, with stronger westerly flow encircling the polar cap. It is argued that the largest and most significant tropospheric trends can be traced to recent trends in the lower stratospheric polar vortex, which are due largely to photochemical ozone losses. During the summer-fall season, the trend toward stronger circumpolar flow has contributed substantially to the observed warming over the Antarctic Peninsula and Patagonia and to the cooling over eastern Antarctica and the Antarctic plateau.
The latter months of 2020 and 2021 were marked by two of the largest Antarctic ozone holes on record. That such large ozone holes occurred despite ongoing ozone recovery raises questions about their ...origins and climate impacts. Here we provide novel evidence that supports the hypothesis that the ozone holes were influenced by two distinct and extraordinary events: the Australian wildfires of early 2020 and the eruption of La Soufriere in 2021. We further reveal that both ozone holes were associated with widespread changes in Southern Hemisphere climate that are consistent with the established climate impacts of Antarctic ozone depletion, including a strengthening of the polar stratospheric vortex, enhanced surface westerlies over the Southern Ocean, and surface temperature changes over Antarctica and Australia. The results thus provide suggestive evidence that injections of both wildfire smoke and volcanic emissions into the stratosphere can lead to hemispheric‐scale changes in surface climate.
Plain Language Summary
The Antarctic ozone hole is characterized by dramatic decreases in stratospheric ozone during the austral spring months. The ozone hole is expected to recover over the next few decades in response to the phasing out of ozone‐depleting substances. However, the latter months of 2020 and 2021 were marked by two of the largest Antarctic ozone holes on record, which raises questions about their origins and climate impacts. Here we provide novel evidence that supports the hypothesis that the ozone holes were influenced by two extraordinary events: the Australian wildfires of early 2020 and the eruption of La Soufriere in 2021. We further reveal that both ozone holes were associated with changes in Southern Hemisphere surface climate consistent with the established climate impacts of Antarctic ozone depletion. Together, the results provide suggestive evidence that injections of both wildfire smoke and volcanic emissions into the stratosphere can lead to hemispheric‐scale changes in surface climate.
Key Points
The large Antarctic ozone holes of 2020 and 2021 were accompanied by stratospheric burdens of wildfire and volcanic emissions, respectively
Both ozone holes were associated with pronounced changes in surface climate consistent with the impacts of Antarctic ozone depletion
Together, the linkages suggest that both wildfire smoke and volcanic emissions can lead to large‐scale changes in surface climate
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