Drought is a recurring challenge in the Middle East Kaniewski, David; Van Campo, Elise; Weiss, Harvey
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences - PNAS,
03/2012, Letnik:
109, Številka:
10
Journal Article
Recenzirano
Odprti dostop
Climate change and water availability in the Middle East are important in understanding human adaptive capacities in the face of long-term environmental changes. The key role of water availability ...for sedentary and nomad populations in these arid to semiarid landscapes is understood, but the millennium-scale influence of hydrologic instability on vegetation dynamics, human occupation, and historic land use are unknown, which has led to a stochastic view of population responses and adaptive capacities to precipitation anomalies. Within the time-frame of the last two global climate events, the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice Age, we report hydrologic instability reconstructed from pollen-derived climate proxies recovered near Tell Leilan, at the Wadi Jarrah in the Khabur Plains of northeastern Syria, at the heart of ancient northern Mesopotamia. By coupling climate proxies with archaeological-historical data and a pollen-based record of agriculture, this integrative study suggests that variability in precipitation is a key factor on crop yields, productivity, and economic systems. It may also have been one of the main parameters controlling human settlement and population migrations at the century to millennial timescales in the arid to semiarid areas of the Middle East. An abrupt shift to drier conditions at ca. AD 1400 is contemporaneous with a change from sedentary village life to regional desertion and nomadization (sheep/camel pastoralists) during the preindustrial era in formerly Ottoman realms, and thereby adds climate change to the multiple causes for Ottoman Empire "decline."
The history of the Eastern Mediterranean is punctuated by major crises that have influenced many of the region's established socioeconomic models. Recent studies have underscored the role of drought ...and temperature oscillations in driving changes but attempts to quantify their magnitude remain equivocal, hindering long‐term assessments of the potential interplay between climate and society. Here, we fill this knowledge gap using a 6,000‐year pollen‐based reconstruction of temperature and precipitation from Hala Sultan Tekke, Cyprus. We find that major social changes and plague outbreaks often occurred in tandem with cooler climate conditions, with anomalies ranging from −3 ± 0.4 °C to −1 ± 0.5 °C, coupled with changing precipitation patterns. We suggest that major climate changes may weaken societies by affecting primary livelihood systems. This long‐term view highlights recurrent cold periods in the Eastern Mediterranean's climate history and advocates that, despite frequent adversity and pandemics, Near Eastern populations adapted and were ultimately resilient to major climate changes.
Plain Language Summary
During the last 6,000 years, the Eastern Mediterranean's climate has been characterized by several periods of marked climate deterioration and cooling. Many of these cooler phases were punctuated by historical crises and outbreaks of plague, suggesting that climate may partially influence social unrest and the spread of scourges. Drought has always been a significant component of past climate changes, but temperature deviations also appear to be as important in fully comprehending the complex interplay between climate and societies.
Key Points
A 6,000‐year climatic reconstruction from Cyprus suggests that cold conditions have affected past societies as much as drought events
Five important cold periods were identified at 5250 ± 20, 4215 ± 40, 3200 ± 90, 1400 ± 70, and 620 ± 20 year BP
Each cold period is consistent with a significant instability in precipitation, mainly for winter and spring seasons
The Late Bronze Age world of the Eastern Mediterranean, a rich linkage of Aegean, Egyptian, Syro-Palestinian, and Hittite civilizations, collapsed famously 3200 years ago and has remained one of the ...mysteries of the ancient world since the event's retrieval began in the late 19(th) century AD/CE. Iconic Egyptian bas-reliefs and graphic hieroglyphic and cuneiform texts portray the proximate cause of the collapse as the invasions of the "Peoples-of-the-Sea" at the Nile Delta, the Turkish coast, and down into the heartlands of Syria and Palestine where armies clashed, famine-ravaged cities abandoned, and countrysides depopulated. Here we report palaeoclimate data from Cyprus for the Late Bronze Age crisis, alongside a radiocarbon-based chronology integrating both archaeological and palaeoclimate proxies, which reveal the effects of abrupt climate change-driven famine and causal linkage with the Sea People invasions in Cyprus and Syria. The statistical analysis of proximate and ultimate features of the sequential collapse reveals the relationships of climate-driven famine, sea-borne-invasion, region-wide warfare, and politico-economic collapse, in whose wake new societies and new ideologies were created.
One of the goals of climate scientists is to understand how climate shifts may have changed the course of history and influenced culture at millennial timescales. Repeatedly, environmental ...degradation has upset the balance between people, their habitat, and the socioeconomic frameworks in which they live. Among these imbalances, drought, firmly rooted in people's minds as a catalyst of harvest failures and famines, remains a permanent threat because it may trigger or amplify social crises, leading to massive exoduses, conflicts, and political turmoil. The spiral of decline in which the flourishing Eastern Mediterranean civilizations were plunged 3200 years ago, and the ensuing chaos, remains a persistent riddle in Near Eastern history. Scholars tend to believe that this socioeconomic collapse was violent and culturally disruptive. Most of the coastal cities between Pylos and Gaza were destroyed, burned, and often left unoccupied, thereafter, putting an end to the elaborate network of international trade that ensured prosperity in the Aegean and the Eastern Mediterranean. The rural settlements that emerged have mainly persisted through adapted agropastoral activities and limited long‐distance trade. At the dusk of this event, regional cultures began to be poorly documented, leading historians to allude to a dark age that lasted for 300 years. Among the roots, tectonic instability and earthquakes, demographic imbalance between social groups, internal collapses, and technological innovations are commonly evoked. However, recent studies have mainly hypothesized about an impact of a centuries‐long drought behind the decline. Drought may have hastened the fall of the Old World by sparking famine, invasions, and conflicts, leading to the political, economic, and cultural chaos termed ‘Late Bronze Age collapse’. WIREs Clim Change 2015, 6:369–382. doi: 10.1002/wcc.345This article is categorized under:Climate, History, Society, Culture > Major Historical ErasPaleoclimates and Current Trends > Paleoclimate
Our knowledge of the origins of olive tree domestication in the Middle East and on the processes governing its extension and persistence in different vegetation types from prehistory through ...antiquity to modern times derives from diverse sources, spanning the biological sciences to the humanities. Nonetheless, it lacks a robust overview that may lead to floating interpretations. This is especially true in the Middle East, considered as the cradle of agriculture, and where the evolutionary history of this emblematic tree is intertwined with that of civilizations. Olive fruit, oil and wood have been, since Prehistoric times, characteristic products of the lands bordering the Mediterranean Sea. In the domestic economy of these countries, the olive tree gradually became a traditional tree crop since the first oil extraction, through the emergence of regional commerce that accompanied the rise and fall of early Near‐Middle Eastern urbanism, until the development of modern trade, with an oil production estimated at circa 3000000 tons per year. The rising importance of the olive tree in human life has turned the tree into an endless source of fascination in the Aegean and Eastern Mediterranean, a symbol and a sacred tree, widely cited in the Bibles, the Koran, and in ancient literature. Here we argue that advances in radiocarbon chronology, palaeobotany, genetics, and archaeology‐history have profoundly refined the history of olive trees in the Middle East. This review shows that the heartland of primary olive domestication must be enlarged to the Levant and not only focus on the Jordan Valley. The domestication of the olive tree is a long and ongoing process, linked to the early production of oil and the development of the olive trade. We also suggest that the olive tree became a particular icon, a sacred tree, during the Biblical period in the Levant.
In Eastern Mediterranean history, 1200 BCE is a symbolic date. Its significance is tied to the important upheavals that destabilised regional-scale economic systems, leading to the dislocation of ...mighty Empires and, finally, to the “demise” of a societal model (termed “the Crisis Years”). Recent studies have suggested that a centuries-long drought, of regional scale, termed the 3.2 ka BP event, could be one of the motors behind this spiral of decline. Here, we focus on this pivotal period, coupling new palaeoenvironmental data and radiocarbon dates from Syria (the site of Tell Tweini) and Cyprus (the site of Pyla-
Kokkinokremnos
), to probe whether climate change accelerated changes in the Eastern Mediterranean’s Old World, by inducing crop failures/low harvests, possibly engendering severe food shortages and even famine. We show that the Late Bronze Age crisis and the following Dark Ages were framed by an ~ 300-year drought episode that significantly impacted crop yields and may have led to famine. Our data underline the agro-productive sensitivity of ancient Mediterranean societies to environmental changes, as well as the potential link between adverse climate pressures and harvest/famine.
Although human activity is considered to be a major driving force affecting the distribution and dynamics of Mediterranean ecosystems, the full consequences of projected climate variability and ...relative sea-level changes on fragile coastal ecosystems for the next century are still unknown. It is unclear how these waterfront ecosystems can be sustained, as well as the services they provide, when relative sea-level rise and global warming are expected to exert even greater pressures in the near future (drought, habitat degradation and accelerated shoreline retreat). Haifa Bay, northern Israel, has recorded a landward sea invasion, with a maximum sea penetration 4,000 years ago, during an important period of urban development and climate instability. Here, we examine the cumulative pressure of climate shifts and relative sea-level changes in order to investigate the patterns and mechanisms behind forest replacement by an open-steppe. We provide a first comprehensive and integrative study for the southern Levant that shows that (i) human impact, through urbanization, has been the main driver behind ecological erosion in the past 4,000 years; (ii) climate pressures have reinforced this impact; and (iii) local coastal changes have played a decisive role in eroding ecosystem resilience. These three parameters, which have closely interacted during the last 4,000 years in Haifa Bay, clearly indicate that for an efficient management of the coastal habitats, anthropogenic pressures linked to urban development must be reduced in order to mitigate the predicted effects of Global Change.
The 13(th) century BC witnessed the zenith of the Aegean and Eastern Mediterranean civilizations which declined at the end of the Bronze Age, ∼3200 years ago. Weakening of this ancient flourishing ...Mediterranean world shifted the political and economic centres of gravity away from the Levant towards Classical Greece and Rome, and led, in the long term, to the emergence of the modern western civilizations. Textual evidence from cuneiform tablets and Egyptian reliefs from the New Kingdom relate that seafaring tribes, the Sea Peoples, were the final catalyst that put the fall of cities and states in motion. However, the lack of a stratified radiocarbon-based archaeology for the Sea People event has led to a floating historical chronology derived from a variety of sources spanning dispersed areas. Here, we report a stratified radiocarbon-based archaeology with anchor points in ancient epigraphic-literary sources, Hittite-Levantine-Egyptian kings and astronomical observations to precisely date the Sea People event. By confronting historical and science-based archaeology, we establish an absolute age range of 1192-1190 BC for terminal destructions and cultural collapse in the northern Levant. This radiocarbon-based archaeology has far-reaching implications for the wider Mediterranean, where an elaborate network of international relations and commercial activities are intertwined with the history of civilizations.
Global climate change has sharpened focus on the social and economic challenges associated with water deficits, particularly in regions where anthropogenic demands exceed supply. This modern ...condition was also experienced by the people of ancient western Asia, where chronic water shortages were accentuated by recurrent droughts. However, human societies may react to climate change, particularly desiccation, in different ways depending on specific local conditions. Focusing on the biblical site of Tel Dan (present-day Israel), we show the effects of severe precipitation decline in an environment that was well watered and fertile even in times of drought. Such local niches of prosperity became attractive targets for predation when food resources became scarce in surrounding rain-fed areas. We propose that predation forced urban populations to either flee or adopt new subsistence strategies. Predation and abandonment, even if only partial, led to the poor maintenance of water networks in and around the city. Once stagnant water surrounded the area, water-borne disease proliferated. Our study shows how climate changes can disrupt social and political structures, cause water system management to collapse, and facilitate marshland expansion.
PDF
