The Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Revisited Newman, Matthew; Alexander, Michael A.; Ault, Toby R. ...
Journal of climate,
06/2016, Letnik:
29, Številka:
12
Journal Article
Recenzirano
The Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), the dominant year-round pattern of monthly North Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) variability, is an important target of ongoing research within ...themeteorological and climate dynamics communities and is central to the work of many geologists, ecologists, natural resource managers, and social scientists. Research over the last 15 years has led to an emerging consensus: the PDO is not a single phenomenon, but is instead the result of a combination of different physical processes, including both remote tropical forcing and local North Pacific atmosphere–ocean interactions, which operate on different time scales to drive similar PDO-like SST anomaly patterns. How these processes combine to generate the observed PDO evolution, including apparent regime shifts, is shown using simple autoregressive models of increasing spatial complexity. Simulations of recent climate in coupled GCMs are able to capture many aspects of the PDO, but do so based on a balance of processes often more independent of the tropics than is observed. Finally, it is suggested that the assessment of PDO-related regional climate impacts, reconstruction of PDO-related variability into the past with proxy records, and diagnosis of Pacific variability within coupled GCMs should all account for the effects of these different processes, which only partly represent the direct forcing of the atmosphere by North Pacific Ocean SSTs.
Health is inextricably linked to climate change. It is important for clinicians to understand this relationship in order to discuss associated health risks with their patients and to inform public ...policy.
To provide new US-based temperature projections from downscaled climate modeling and to review recent studies on health risks related to climate change and the cobenefits of efforts to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions.
We searched PubMed and Google Scholar from 2009 to 2014 for articles related to climate change and health, focused on governmental reports, predictive models, and empirical epidemiological studies. Of the more than 250 abstracts reviewed, 56 articles were selected. In addition, we analyzed climate data averaged over 13 climate models and based future projections on downscaled probability distributions of the daily maximum temperature for 2046-2065. We also compared maximum daily 8-hour average ozone with air temperature data taken from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Climate Data Center.
By 2050, many US cities may experience more frequent extreme heat days. For example, New York and Milwaukee may have 3 times their current average number of days hotter than 32°C (90°F). High temperatures are also strongly associated with ozone exceedance days, for example, in Chicago, Illinois. The adverse health aspects related to climate change may include heat-related disorders, such as heat stress and economic consequences of reduced work capacity; respiratory disorders, including those exacerbated by air pollution and aeroallergens, such as asthma; infectious diseases, including vectorborne diseases and waterborne diseases, such as childhood gastrointestinal diseases; food insecurity, including reduced crop yields and an increase in plant diseases; and mental health disorders, such as posttraumatic stress disorder and depression, that are associated with natural disasters. Substantial health and economic cobenefits could be associated with reductions in fossil fuel combustion. For example, greenhouse gas emission policies may yield net economic benefit, with health benefits from air quality improvements potentially offsetting the cost of US and international carbon policies.
Evidence over the past 20 years indicates that climate change can be associated with adverse health outcomes. Health care professionals have an important role in understanding and communicating the related potential health concerns and the cobenefits from policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
From observational analysis a Pacific mode of variability in the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ)/cold tongue region is identified that possesses characteristics and interpretation similar to ...the dominant “meridional” mode of interannual–decadal variability in the tropical Atlantic. The Pacific and Atlantic meridional modes are characterized by an anomalous sea surface temperature (SST) gradient across the mean latitude of the ITCZ coupled to an anomalous displacement of the ITCZ toward the warmer hemisphere. Both are forced by trade wind variations in their respective northern subtropical oceans. The Pacific meridional mode exists independently of ENSO, although ENSO nonlinearity projects strongly on it during the peak anomaly season of boreal spring. It is suggested that the Pacific and Atlantic modes are analogous, governed by physics intrinsic to the ITCZ/cold tongue complex.
Central Pacific (CP)‐type and Eastern Pacific (EP)‐type El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events are investigated using linear inverse modeling. Optimal initial conditions and growth rates ...for CP or EP ENSO events are identified explicitly using a CP or EP ENSO norm. The dominant difference in initial conditions that lead to CP and EP ENSO events is the role of the second empirical orthogonal function of tropical sea surface temperature, which represents the Pacific Meridional Mode (PMM). Optimal initial conditions for CP‐type ENSO events include warm SST anomalies in the central subtropical Pacific (a characteristic of the PMM) while optimal initial conditions for EP‐type ENSO events are focused in the eastern equatorial Pacific and Southern Hemisphere subtropics along about 25°S. Thermocline anomalies differ in initial structures and in their influence on SST for CP and EP events. Results point to different roles of the PMM and thermocline variations in the evolution of CP and EP ENSO events.
Key Points
The PMM plays an important role in CP ENSO events
Thermocline variations play an important role in EP ENSO events
Defined CP and EP norms provide a tool for examining CP and EP ENSO events
The Pacific–North American (PNA) teleconnection pattern has been linked both to tropical phenomena, including the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and to ...internal extratropical processes, including interactions with the zonally varying basic state and synoptic eddies. Many questions remain, however, concerning how these various relationships act, both separately and together, to yield observed PNA variability. Using linear inverse modeling (LIM), this study finds that the development and amplification of PNA anomalies largely results from the interference of modes strongly coupled to sea surface temperatures (SST), such as ENSO, and modes internal to the atmosphere, including the MJO. These SST-coupled and “internal atmospheric” modes form subspaces that are not orthogonal, and PNA growth is shown to occur via non-normal interactions. An internal atmospheric space LIM is developed to examine growth beyond this interference by removing the SST-coupled modes, effectively removing ENSO and retaining MJO variability. Optimal PNA growth in the internal atmospheric space LIM is driven by MJO heating, particularly over the Indian Ocean, and a retrograding northeast Pacific streamfunction anomaly. Additionally, the individual contributions of tropical heating and the extratropical circulation on PNA growth are investigated. The non-normal PNA growth is an important result, demonstrating the difficulty in partitioning PNA variance into contributions from different phenomena. This cautionary result is likely applicable to many geophysical phenomena and should be considered in attribution studies.
The dynamics of thermodynamically coupled disturbances in the tropics that bear a strong resemblance to observed meridional mode variations are investigated using two simple linear coupled models. ...Both models involve an ocean equation coupled to the atmosphere via the linearized effect of zonal wind variations on the surface bulk latent heat flux. The two models differ in their atmospheric components, which consist of (i) a Gill–Matsuno style model of the free troposphere in which atmospheric heating is parameterized to be linearly proportional to sea surface temperature and (ii) a reduced-gravity model of the tropical boundary layer in which SST anomalies are associated with hydrostatic pressure perturbations throughout the boundary layer. Both atmospheric models follow the standard shallow-water equations on an equatorial beta plane.
Growth rates and propagation of coupled disturbances are calculated and diagnosed via eigenanalysis of the linear models and singular value decomposition of the Green’s function for each model. It is found that the eigenvectors of either model are all damped, not orthogonal, and not particularly meaningful in understanding observed tropical coupled variability. The nonnormality of the system, however, leads to transient growth over a time period of about 100 days (based on the choice of parameters in this study). The idealized initial and final conditions that experience this transient growth resemble observed tropical meridional mode variations and tend to propagate equatorward and westward in accord with findings from previous theoretical and modeling studies. Instantaneous growth rates and propagation characteristics of idealized transient disturbances are diagnosed via the linearized atmospheric potential vorticity equation and via propagation characteristics of atmospheric equatorial Rossby waves.
Constraints on the poleward extent of initial conditions or imposed steady forcing that can lead to tropical meridional mode variations are identified through analysis of the steady coupled equations. Three constraints limit the poleward extent of forcing that can generate tropical meridional mode variations: (i) a dynamical constraint imposed by the damping rate of the temperature equation as well as the propagation speed of the mode along its wave characteristic; (ii) a constraint imposed by the effectiveness of zonal wind variations in generating surface latent heat flux anomalies; and (iii) the surface moisture convergence, which limits the poleward extent and strength of ocean to atmosphere coupling.
Midlatitude atmospheric variability is identified as a particularly effective component of the stochastic forcing of ENSO. This forcing is realized via a seasonal footprinting mechanism (SFM), in ...which the tropical atmosphere is forced during the spring and summer by SST anomalies generated by midlatitude atmospheric variability during the previous winter. The strong relationship between the SFM and ENSO may serve to enhance ENSO predictability and supports the view that ENSO is linearly stable in nature.
Connections between the Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM) and seasonal hurricane activity are investigated. The AMM, a dynamical “mode” of variability intrinsic to the tropical coupled ocean‐atmosphere ...system, is strongly related to seasonal hurricane activity on both decadal and interannual time scales. The connection arises due to the AMM's relationship with a number of local climatic conditions that all cooperate in their influence on hurricane activity. Further analysis indicates that the Atlantic Multi‐decadal Oscillation (AMO) can excite the AMM on decadal time scales. As such, it is suggested that the AMO's influence on seasonal hurricane activity manifests itself through the AMM. This relationship between the AMM, AMO, and seasonal hurricane activity refocuses our understanding of how climate variations relate to seasonal hurricane activity in the Atlantic, and offers an improved framework beyond purely thermodynamic arguments that relates hurricanes to large‐scale climate variations.
A theoretical framework is developed for understanding the transient growth and propagation characteristics of thermodynamically coupled, meridional mode–like structures in the tropics. The model ...consists of a Gill–Matsuno-type steady atmosphere under the long-wave approximation coupled via a wind–evaporation–sea surface temperature (WES) feedback to a “slab” ocean model. When projected onto meridional basis functions for the atmosphere the system simplifies to a nonnormal set of equations that describes the evolution of individual sea surface temperature (SST) modes, with clean separation between equatorially symmetric and antisymmetric modes. The following major findings result from analysis of the system: 1) a transient growth process exists whereby specific SST modes propagate toward lower-order modes at the expense of the higher-order modes; 2) the same dynamical mechanisms govern the evolution of symmetric and antisymmetric SST modes except for the lowest-order wavenumber, where for symmetric structures the atmospheric Kelvin wave plays a critically different role in enhancing decay; and 3) the WES feedback is positive for all modes (with a maximum for the most equatorially confined antisymmetric structure) except for the most equatorially confined symmetric mode where the Kelvin wave generates a negative WES feedback. Taken together, these findings explain why equatorially antisymmetric “dipole”-like structures may dominate thermodynamically coupled ocean–atmosphere variability in the tropics. The role of nonnormality and the role of realistic mean states in meridional mode variability are discussed.
Anthropogenic climate change is altering ecological and human systems globally, including in United States (US) national parks, which conserve unique biodiversity and resources. Yet, the magnitude ...and spatial patterns of climate change across all the parks have been unknown. Here, in the first spatial analysis of historical and projected temperature and precipitation across all 417 US national parks, we show that climate change exposes the national park area more than the US as a whole. This occurs because extensive parts of the national park area are in the Arctic, at high elevations, or in the arid southwestern US. Between 1895 and 2010, mean annual temperature of the national park area increased 1.0 °C 0.2 °C century−1 (mean standard error), double the US rate. Temperature has increased most in Alaska and its extensive national parks. Annual precipitation of the national park area declined significantly on 12% of national park area, compared to 3% of the US. Higher temperatures due to climate change have coincided with low precipitation in the southwestern US, intensifying droughts in the region. Physical and ecological changes have been detected and attributed mainly to anthropogenic climate change in areas of significant temperature increases in US national parks. From 2000 to 2100, under the highest emissions scenario (representative concentration pathway RCP 8.5), park temperatures would increase 3 °C-9 °C, with climate velocities outpacing dispersal capabilities of many plant and animal species. Even under the scenario of reduced emissions (RCP2.6), temperature increases could exceed 2 °C for 58% of national park area, compared to 22% of the US. Nevertheless, greenhouse gas emissions reductions could reduce projected temperature increases in national parks by one-half to two-thirds.
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