Tropical savannas are one of the most affected biomes worldwide by anthropogenic activities. The Cerrado biome, also referred to as the Brazilian Tropical Savanna, is one of the world's environmental ...hotspots due to its high biodiversity and endemism. Also, it is essential for water resources in South America and hydropower generation in Brazil. In this context, this study aimed to evaluate possible changes in water availability in the Cerrado due to the impacts of climate change throughout the 21st century under different emissions scenarios. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was calibrated and validated in a watershed encompassing 51 237 km2. The regional climate models (RCMs) Eta‐HadGEM‐ES and Eta‐MIROC5 under the representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 were used to simulate the streamflow changes in three time slices (2010–2040, 2041–2070, and 2071–2099). The streamflow can be reduced by up to 70%, being Eta/HadGEM2‐ES RCM under RCP 8.5 projected the most severe impact. On average, the most significant runoff reductions occurred in the first and third time slice (−54.51%). Baseflow and evapotranspiration can reduce up to 55% and 23%, respectively, at the end of the century. In addition, the hydrological drought assessment stressed the higher frequency of severe drought events in the first time slice. Streamflow regularization can be an alternative to mitigate the impacts of climate change in the Brazilian Tropical Savanna throughout the 21st century.
The baseflow may be reduced by up to 55.36% in the Brazilian Savanna.
Decreases in rainfall up to 37.4% were observed in 2071–2099.
Streamflow can be reduced by up to 70% in the Brazilian Savanna.
ABSTRACT Hydro-sedimentological models might be useful tools for investigating the effectiveness of soil and water conservation practices. However, evaluating the usefulness of such models requires ...that predictions are tested against observational data and that uncertainty from model parameterization is addressed. Here we aimed to evaluate the capacity of the SWAT model to simulate monthly streamflow and sediment load in the Posses creek catchment (12 km2), Southeast Brazil. The SUFI-2 algorithm from SWAT-CUP was applied for calibration, testing, uncertainty, and sensitivity analysis. The model was calibrated and initially tested using discharge and sediment load data, which were measured at the catchment outlet. Additionally, we used soil loss measurements from erosion plots within the catchment as independent data for model evaluation. Average monthly streamflow simulations obtained satisfactory results, with Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient (NSE) values of 0.75 and 0.51 for the calibration and testing periods, respectively. Sediment load simulations also displayed satisfactory results for calibration (NSE = 0.65) and testing (NSE = 0.52). However, the comparison with independent plot data revealed that SWAT severely overestimated hillslope erosion rates and compensated it with high sediment channel deposition. Moreover, the model was not sensitive to the parameters used for calculating hillslope sediment yields. Therefore, it should be used with caution for evaluating the interactions between land use, soil erosion, and sediment delivery. We found that the commonly used outlet-based approach for model calibration and testing can lead to internal misrepresentations, and models can reproduce the right answer for the wrong reasons.
•Regional function is an important alternative for ungauged sites in Lavras region.•Monte Carlo and bootstrapping are used to evaluate uncertainties.•Flood estimates in ungauged sites in the region ...of Lavras show large uncertainties.•Assessing uncertainty is essential for appropriate and safe flood risk management.•Simple methods help decision-makers throughout places with globally available data.
Regionalization techniques are an important alternative to overcome the scarcity of streamflow data and to provide adequate estimates for flood management. This work aims to generate a maximum streamflow regional function and evaluate the uncertainties in estimates for a basin in the South of Minas Gerais, Brazil. Six streamflow gauging stations, that presented stationarity and no trends according to the Mann-Kendal test, were used to develop the regional function by the dimensionless curve method. The annual maximum streamflow series were adjusted to the probability density functions (PDFs) 2-parameter Log-Normal, 3-paramenter Log-Normal, Gumbel, and Gamma. Then, the goodness-of-fit of the PDFs was verified by the Anderson-Darling test. For the regional analysis, heterogeneity and discordancy measures verified the homogeneity of the region, and the jack-knifing technique evaluated the predictive performance of the regional function by the coefficient c of Camargo and Sentelhas. The uncertainty analysis for at-site and regional function estimates was assessed by Monte Carlo simulations and bootstrapping. The performance of the regional function was classified as optimum for most of the watersheds, but as good when considering the prediction in certain return periods. The uncertainties were larger in ungauged basins, especially for greater return periods and drainage areas. The regional function developed can be employed in ungauged sites, but also to improve data in poorly monitored watersheds. Thus, this study demonstrates the adequate applicability of regionalization in ungauged watersheds and provides a simple alternative for maximum streamflow estimates in order to promote sustainable flood risk management.
ABSTRACT The state of Tocantins is inserted in the new Brazilian agricultural frontier and has shown enormous potential for expansion of the agricultural lands. However, there is a lack of more ...elaborate scientific information for better planning and guide agricultural activities, especially regarding the soil and water conservation. Tocantins has a relevant rainfall spatial variability and, consequently, rainfall erosivity. Thus, this work aimed to develop models to estimate the mean monthly and annual rainfall and means rainfall erosivity factor (R-factor) of the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) for the state of Tocantins. For that, 97 historical series of daily rainfall were studied, considering a standard period of 25 years (1985-2009). The fitting of the models adjustment datasets consists of 86 rain-gauges, out of which, 11 were randomly selected and used solely for model validation. Afterward, maps of these variables were generated based on the regression-kriging procedure. The fitted models presented precision statistical that allow characterizing them as “good quality”, with a coefficient of determination higher than 0.68 for rainfall models and 0.65 for the R-factor model, besides acceptable bias. Therefore, the application of the models can be successfully carried out, aiding the agricultural planning in the state of Tocantins.
Estudos associados a chuvas extremas são constituídos de eventos de interesse prático para a gestão dos recursos naturais, como manejo de bacias hidrográficas e conservação dos solos e da água. A ...distribuição espacial desses eventos possibilita inferir sobre áreas onde sua ocorrência é acentuada e desprovida de informações técnicas. Os objetivos deste trabalho foram promover, a partir de dados pontuais de 177 estações meteorológicas e com a utilização de técnicas geoestatísticas, o mapeamento de chuvas intensas para o Estado de Minas Gerais e identificar as áreas mais vulneráveis no tocante à ocorrência dessas chuvas nesse Estado. Foi constatado que as maiores intensidades ocorrem nas regiões leste e noroeste de Minas Gerais, o que pode ser explicado pela maior influência da Zona de Convergência do Atlântico Sul, além de ocorrência de chuvas convectivas. Foi possível, também, constatar e mapear intensidades intermediárias nas regiões sul e central e os menores valores para as regiões norte e nordeste de Minas Gerais. Para maiores durações, verificou-se, para a região sul, ocorrência de altas intensidades, o que está associado à entrada com maior frequência de frentes frias, produzindo chuvas de longa duração.
ABSTRACT Hydrosedimentological modeling is a useful tool to predict the water dynamic in a basin and for water resources management. This study aimed to i) evaluate the ability of Soil and Water ...Assessment Tool (SWAT) to model sediment load and continuous monthly streamflow in the Mortes River Basin (MRB) in Southeastern Brazil; ii) estimate the sediment yield spatially distributed by sub-basins; iii) estimate the sediment load export to the Funil Hydroelectric Power Plant reservoir (FHPP), located in the MRB outlet. For the sensitivity analysis, calibration, and uncertainty analysis of the model, a semi-automatic calibration in SWAT-CUP version 5.1.6 software with the “Sequential Uncertainty Fitting” algorithm was used. To evaluate the ability of SWAT to reproduce the continuous MRB monthly streamflow and sediment load, statistical indexes, and graphical analyses were used to compare the simulated and observed data. For the sediment evaluation, a spatial and temporal comparison of sediment yield maps was used as well as the sediment yield observed in sub-basins, aiming to identify the areas with a more significant contribution to the sediment generation in the basin. The results demonstrated that SWAT performed satisfactorily in simulating both monthly sediment load and streamflow. For discharge calibration, 99 % of the measured data were bracketed by the 95 % prediction uncertainty (95PPU), and for validation, 97 % of the data were bracketed by the 95PPU, which indicates proper bracketing of the measured data within model prediction uncertainty. Uncertainty analysis indicated that 95PPU could capture 78 % of the sediment loads measured during the calibration and 72 % of the measured data during the validation period at MRB. The hydrologic response unit with pasture and Argissolos (Ultisols), Neossolos Litólicos (Entisols), and Cambissolos (Inceptisols) combined with undulated relief were the main areas responsible for the highest sediment contributions. The sediment load delivered to the reservoir from its filling 2002 to 2015 was estimated in 6,682,704 m3 (16,706,761 Mg) (density of 2.5-Mg m-3) which value corresponded to 2.6 % of storage capacity (water plus sediment) in 14 years. These results are strategic since to become feasible identifying priority areas for soil and water conservation practices as well as useful information for water resources planning and management in the studied basin.
The Brazilian Cerrado biome (BCB) is among 25 biodiversity hotspots identified worldwide, and covers the recharge area of important aquifers and rivers in South America. The increase in deforestation ...has been threatening water availability in this region. In order to assist in the water-resource management of the BCB, this study models the daily streamflow in a basin of the Cerrado, using two approaches: a process-based model (Soil and Water Assessment Tool - SWAT) and the data-driven model (Artificial Neural Network - ANN). The performance of the models was evaluated by the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient (NSE), coefficient of determination (R2) and flow-duration-curves (FDC). The results indicate that SWAT (NSE > 0.61; R2 > 0.68) and ANN (NSE > 0.91; R2 > 0.79) models are suitable tools in daily streamflow modeling of the studied basin, with the ANN model being the most accurate. Based on FDC, the ANN model was also better than the SWAT model for all frequencies evaluated. Thus, the ANN model is a promising new approach for daily streamflow modelling in this region. Moreover, the results of this study can help water-resource managers in planning and implementing appropriate water allocation and conservation measures in the Brazilian Cerrado biome.
ABSTRACT Meteorological drought is a natural hazard characterized as below-average precipitation from expected or normal that can affect various economic sectors, and lead to period with inadequate ...streamflow for established uses of the water (hydrological drought). We aimed to apply the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Streamflow Index (SSI) to identify the occurrence and the intensity of droughts in Doce River Basin (DRB), Southeastern Brazil. For this purpose, 71 rain gauge stations and one streamflow station were selected with 30-year monthly historical series (1987 to 2017). The SPI and SSI were calculated for the hydrological year (October-September) and the seasons (Spring, Summer, Fall, and Winter). SPI mapping was performed by geostatistical procedures. Pearson's coefficient was calculated to analyze the influence of meteorological on hydrological drought. The main meteorological drought events, observed in the hydrological years of 1994/95, 2000/01, and a recent and consecutive period of four hydrological years (2013-2017), were mainly influenced by events in spring and summer and, to a lesser extent, in fall. It was observed the influence of the meteorological drought on the hydrological drought on an annual and seasonal scale, except winter, where low precipitation does not influence in the streamflow.
RESUMO A seca meteorológica é um fenômeno natural caracterizado por precipitações abaixo da média, com relação ao valor esperado ou normal, que podem afectar vários sectores econômicos e levar a um período com vazões inadequadas para usos estabelecidos (seca hidrológica). Foi aplicado o Índice de Precipitação Padronizado (SPI) e o Índice de Escoamento Padronizado (SSI) para identificar a ocorrência e a intensidade das secas na bacia hidrográfica do rio Doce (DRB), Sudeste do Brasil. Para isso, foram seleccionadas 71 estações pluviométricas e uma estação de vazão com séries históricas mensais de 30 anos (1987 a 2017). O SPI e o SSI foram calculados para o ano hidrológico (outubro-setembro) e para as estações do ano (primavera, verão, outono e inverno). O mapeamento do SPI foi realizado por procedimentos geoestatísticos. O coeficiente de correlação de Pearson foi calculado para analisar a influência da meteorologia na seca hidrológica. Os principais eventos meteorológicos de seca foram observados nos anos hidrológicos de 1994/95, 2000/01 e em um período recente e consecutivo de quatro anos hidrológicos (2013-2017), principalmente influenciados por eventos na primavera e verão e, em menor escala, no outono. Foi observada a influência da seca meteorológica sobre a hidrológica em escala anual e sazonal, exceto no inverno, em que a baixa pluviosidade não influenciou a vazão.
The Brazilian Cerrado biome is the largest and richest tropical savanna in the world and is among the 25 biodiversity hotspots identified worldwide. However, the lack of adequate hydrological ...monitoring in this region has led to problems in the management of water resources. In order to provide tools for the adequate management of water resources in the Brazilian Cerrado biome region, this paper develops the regionalization of maximum, mean and minimum streamflows in the Tocantins River Basin (287,405.5 km2), fully located in the Brazilian Cerrado biome. The streamflow records of 32 gauging stations in the Tocantins River Basin are examined using the Mann-Kendall test and the hydrological homogeneity non-parametric index-flood method. One homogeneous region was identified for the estimate of the streamflows Qltm (long-term mean streamflow), Q90% (streamflow with 90% of exceeding time), Q95% (streamflow with 95% of exceeding time) and Q7,10 (minimum annual streamflow over 7 days and return period of 10 years). Two homogeneous regions were identified for maximum annual streamflow estimation and the Generalized Extreme Value distribution is found to describe the distribution of maximus events appropriately within the both regions. Regional models were developed for each streamflow of each region and evaluated by cross-validation. These models can be used for the estimation of maximum, mean and minimum streamflows in ungauged basins within the Tocantins River Basin within the area boundaries identified. Therefore, the results provided in this paper are valuable tools for practicing water-resource managers in the Brazilian Cerrado biome.
Keywords: l-moments, statistical hydrology, water use rights concessions.
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