•Credit score, UPB and no. of borrowers affect default and prepay rates contrarily.•Default/prepay rates behave identically for DTI, insurance percent, occupancy etc.•Estimated mean and s.d. ...parameters are substantially different for default/prepay.•Identifiability issue in data with strong imbalance between default and prepay.
In this paper we present a Bayesian competing risk proportional hazards model to describe mortgage defaults and prepayments. We develop Bayesian inference for the model using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. Implementation of the model is illustrated using actual default/prepayment data and additional insights that can be obtained from the Bayesian analysis are discussed.
We found that trends in the rate of description of 580,000 marine and terrestrial species, in the taxonomically authoritative World Register of Marine Species and Catalogue of Life databases, were ...similar until the 1950s. Since then, the relative number of marine to terrestrial species described per year has increased, reflecting the less explored nature of the oceans. From the mid-19th century, the cumulative number of species described has been linear, with the highest number of species described in the decade of 1900, and fewer species described and fewer authors active during the World Wars. There were more authors describing species since the 1960s, indicating greater taxonomic effort. There were fewer species described per author since the 1920s, suggesting it has become more difficult to discover new species. There was no evidence of any change in individual effort by taxonomists. Using a nonhomogeneous renewal process model we predicted that 24-31% to 21-29% more marine and terrestrial species remain to be discovered, respectively. We discuss why we consider that marine species comprise only 16% of all species on Earth although the oceans contain a greater phylogenetic diversity than occurs on land. We predict that there may be 1.8-2.0 million species on Earth, of which about 0.3 million are marine, significantly less than some previous estimates.
Global anthropogenic and legacy mercury (Hg) emissions are the main sources of Arctic Hg contamination, primarily transported there via the atmosphere. This review summarizes the state of knowledge ...of the global anthropogenic sources of Hg emissions, and examines recent changes and source attribution of Hg transport and deposition to the Arctic using models. Estimated global anthropogenic Hg emissions to the atmosphere for 2015 were ~2220 Mg, ~20% higher than 2010. Global anthropogenic, legacy and geogenic Hg emissions were, respectively, responsible for 32%, 64% (wildfires: 6–10%) and 4% of the annual Arctic Hg deposition. Relative contributions to Arctic deposition of anthropogenic origin was dominated by sources in East Asia (32%), Commonwealth of Independent States (12%), and Africa (12%). Model results exhibit significant spatiotemporal variations in Arctic anthropogenic Hg deposition fluxes, driven by regional differences in Hg air transport routes, surface and precipitation uptake rates, and inter-seasonal differences in atmospheric circulation and deposition pathways. Model simulations reveal that changes in meteorology are having a profound impact on contemporary atmospheric Hg in the Arctic. Reversal of North Atlantic Oscillation phase from strongly negative in 2010 to positive in 2015, associated with lower temperature and more sea ice in the Canadian Arctic, Greenland and surrounding ocean, resulted in enhanced production of bromine species and Hg(0) oxidation and lower evasion of Hg(0) from ocean waters in 2015. This led to increased Hg(II) (and its deposition) and reduced Hg(0) air concentrations in these regions in line with High Arctic observations. However, combined changes in meteorology and anthropogenic emissions led to overall elevated modeled Arctic air Hg(0) levels in 2015 compared to 2010 contrary to observed declines at most monitoring sites, likely due to uncertainties in anthropogenic emission speciation, wildfire emissions and model representations of air-surface Hg fluxes.
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•Emission inventories need regular/consistent updating with improved Hg speciation.•Models confirm important impact of changing meteorology on Arctic atmospheric Hg.•75% of anthropogenic Hg deposition is from industrial and ASGM gold mining sources.•Significant geographic and seasonal variations exist in Arctic Hg contamination.•Geographical distribution of air monitoring needs improvement to capture changes.
Air pollution is a major global health concern with particulate matter (PM) being especially associated with increases in cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. Diesel exhaust emissions are a ...particularly rich source of the smallest sizes of PM ("fine" and "ultrafine") in urban environments, and it is these particles that are believed to be the most detrimental to cardiovascular health. Recent Advances: Controlled exposure studies to diesel exhaust in animals and man demonstrate alterations in blood pressure, heart rate, vascular tone, endothelial function, myocardial perfusion, thrombosis, atherogenesis, and plaque stability. Oxidative stress has emerged as a highly plausible pathobiological mechanism by which inhalation of diesel exhaust PM leads to multiple facets of cardiovascular dysfunction.
Diesel exhaust inhalation promotes oxidative stress in several biological compartments that can be directly associated with adverse cardiovascular effects.
Further studies with more sensitive and specific in vivo human markers of oxidative stress are required to determine if targeting oxidative stress pathways involved in the actions of diesel exhaust PM could be of therapeutic value. Antioxid. Redox Signal. 28, 819-836.
Aquatic ecosystems are an essential component of the biogeochemical cycle of mercury (Hg), as inorganic Hg can be converted to toxic methylmercury (MeHg) in these environments and reemissions of ...elemental Hg rival anthropogenic Hg releases on a global scale. Quantification of effluent Hg releases to aquatic systems globally has focused on discharges to the global oceans, rather than contributions to freshwater systems that affect local exposures and risks associated with MeHg. Here we produce a first-estimate of sector-specific, spatially resolved global aquatic Hg discharges to freshwater systems. We compare our release estimates to atmospheric sources that have been quantified elsewhere. By analyzing available quantitative and qualitative information, we estimate that present-day global Hg releases to freshwater environments (rivers and lakes) associated with anthropogenic activities have a lower bound of ~1000 Mg· a-1. Artisanal and small-scale gold mining (ASGM) represents the single largest source, followed by disposal of mercury-containing products and domestic waste water, metal production, and releases from industrial installations such as chlor-alkali plants and oil refineries. In addition to these direct anthropogenic inputs, diffuse inputs from land management activities and remobilization of Hg previously accumulated in terrestrial ecosystems are likely comparable in magnitude. Aquatic discharges of Hg are greatly understudied and further constraining associated data gaps is crucial for reducing the uncertainties in the global biogeochemical Hg budget.
BMS-986120 is a novel first-in-class oral PAR4 (protease-activated receptor 4) antagonist with potent and selective antiplatelet effects. We sought to determine for the first time, the effect of ...BMS-986120 on human ex vivo thrombus formation.
Forty healthy volunteers completed a phase 1 parallel-group PROBE trial (Prospective Randomized Open-Label Blinded End Point). Ex vivo platelet activation, platelet aggregation, and thrombus formation were measured at 0, 2, and 24 hours after (1) oral BMS-986120 (60 mg) or (2) oral aspirin (600 mg) followed at 18 hours with oral aspirin (600 mg) and oral clopidogrel (600 mg). BMS-986120 demonstrated highly selective and reversible inhibition of PAR4 agonist peptide (100 μM)-stimulated P-selectin expression, platelet-monocyte aggregates, and platelet aggregation (
<0.001 for all). Compared with pretreatment, total thrombus area (μm
/mm) at high shear was reduced by 29.2% (95% confidence interval, 18.3%-38.7%;
<0.001) at 2 hours and by 21.4% (9.3%-32.0%;
=0.002) at 24 hours. Reductions in thrombus formation were driven by a decrease in platelet-rich thrombus deposition: 34.8% (19.3%-47.3%;
<0.001) at 2 hours and 23.3% (5.1%-38.0%;
=0.016) at 24 hours. In contrast to aspirin alone, or in combination with clopidogrel, BMS-986120 had no effect on thrombus formation at low shear (
=nonsignificant). BMS-986120 administration was not associated with an increase in coagulation times or serious adverse events.
BMS-986120 is a highly selective and reversible oral PAR4 antagonist that substantially reduces platelet-rich thrombus formation under conditions of high shear stress. Our results suggest PAR4 antagonism has major potential as a therapeutic antiplatelet strategy.
URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT02439190.
Temporal trend analysis of (total) mercury (THg) concentrations in Arctic biota were assessed as part of the 2021 Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP) Mercury Assessment. A mixed model ...including an evaluation of non-linear trends was applied to 110 time series of THg concentrations from Arctic and Subarctic biota. Temporal trends were calculated for full time series (6–46 years) and evaluated with a particular focus on recent trends over the last 20 years. Three policy-relevant questions were addressed: (1) What time series for THg concentrations in Arctic biota are currently available? (2) Are THg concentrations changing over time in biota from the Arctic? (3) Are there spatial patterns in THg trends in biota from the Arctic? Few geographical patterns of recent trends in THg concentrations were observed; however, those in marine mammals tended to be increasing at more easterly longitudes, and those of seabirds tended to be increasing in the Northeast Atlantic; these should be interpreted with caution as geographic coverage remains variable. Trends of THg in freshwater fish were equally increasing and decreasing or non-significant while those in marine fish and mussels were non-significant or increasing. The statistical power to detect trends was greatly improved compared to the 2011 AMAP Mercury Assessment; 70% of the time series could detect a 5% annual change at the 5% significance level with power ≥ 80%, while in 2011 only 19% met these criteria. Extending existing time series, and availability of new, powerful time series contributed to these improvements, highlighting the need for annual monitoring, particularly given the spatial and temporal information needed to support initiatives such as the Minamata Convention on Mercury. Collecting the same species/tissues across different locations is recommended. Extended time series from Alaska and new data from Russia are also needed to better establish circumarctic patterns of temporal trends.
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•Temporal trends of mercury levels were assessed in 110 time series for Arctic biota.•70% of the time series could detect a 5% annual increase with statistical power ≥ 80%.•All biota groups exhibited significant trends, but few geographic patterns were observed.•Mercury trends in seabirds appeared to increase in Arctic areas of the NE Atlantic.•Mercury trends in marine mammals tended to be increasing at easterly longitudes.
The paper reviews the current state of knowledge regarding global emissions of mercury and presents a new inventory of global emissions of mercury to the atmosphere from anthropogenic sources for the ...year 2000. The largest emissions of Hg to the global atmosphere occur from combustion of fossil fuels, mainly coal in utility, industrial, and residential boilers. As much as two-thirds of the total emission of ca. 2190
ton of Hg emitted from all anthropogenic sources worldwide in 2000 came from combustion of fossil fuels. Emissions of Hg from coal combustion are between one and two orders of magnitude higher than emissions from oil combustion, depending on the country. Various industrial processes account for additional 30% of Hg emissions from anthropogenic sources worldwide in 2000. Major contribution to emissions from this source category comes from gold production using Hg technology. The Asian countries contributed about 54% to the global Hg emission from anthropogenic sources in 2000, followed by Africa (18%) and Europe, including the European part of Russia (11%). China heads the list of the 10 countries with highest Hg emissions from anthropogenic activities. With more than 600
ton of Hg, China contributes about 28% to the global emissions of mercury.
It is expected that future changes of Hg emissions from anthropogenic sources worldwide until the year 2020 should be within ±20% of the current estimates, although this assessment should be treated with great caution.
Emission estimates for various continents presented in this paper were used to prepare global emission maps. These maps are presented in a companion paper (Wilson et al., 2005. Spatial distribution of global anthropogenic mercury atmospheric emissions. Atmospheric Environment, in this issue).
Mercury is a global pollutant that poses threats to ecosystem and human health. Due to its global transport, mercury contamination is found in regions of the Earth that are remote from major ...emissions areas, including the Polar regions. Global anthropogenic emission inventories identify important sectors and industries responsible for emissions at a national level; however, to be useful for air transport modelling, more precise information on the locations of emission is required. This paper describes the methodology applied, and the results of work that was conducted to assign anthropogenic mercury emissions to point sources as part of geospatial mapping of the 2010 global anthropogenic mercury emissions inventory prepared by AMAP/UNEP. Major point-source emission sectors addressed in this work account for about 850 tonnes of the emissions included in the 2010 inventory. This work allocated more than 90% of these emissions to some 4600 identified point source locations, including significantly more point source locations in Africa, Asia, Australia and South America than had been identified during previous work to geospatially-distribute the 2005 global inventory. The results demonstrate the utility and the limitations of using existing, mainly public domain resources to accomplish this work. Assumptions necessary to make use of selected online resources are discussed, as are artefacts that can arise when these assumptions are applied to assign (national-sector) emissions estimates to point sources in various countries and regions. Notwithstanding the limitations of the available information, the value of this procedure over alternative methods commonly used to geo-spatially distribute emissions, such as use of ‘proxy’ datasets to represent emissions patterns, is illustrated. Improvements in information that would facilitate greater use of these methods in future work to assign emissions to point-sources are discussed. These include improvements to both national (geo-referenced) emission inventories and also to other resources that can be employed when such national inventories are lacking.
•Investigation of the use of publicly available data resources.•Characterization of point-source emissions of mercury.•Elaboration of a method to integrate reported and calculated emission estimates.•Improved geospatial distribution of global anthropogenic mercury emissions to air.
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