U.K. HiGEM Shaffrey, L. C.; Stevens, I.; Norton, W. A. ...
Journal of climate,
04/2009, Letnik:
22, Številka:
8
Journal Article
Recenzirano
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This article describes the development and evaluation of the U.K.’s new High-Resolution Global Environmental Model (HiGEM), which is based on the latest climate configuration of the Met Office ...Unified Model, known as the Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model, version 1 (HadGEM1). In HiGEM, the horizontal resolution has been increased to 0.83° latitude × 1.25° longitude for the atmosphere, and 1/3° × 1/3° globally for the ocean. Multidecadal integrations of HiGEM, and the lower-resolution HadGEM, are used to explore the impact of resolution on the fidelity of climate simulations.
Generally, SST errors are reduced in HiGEM. Cold SST errors associated with the path of the North Atlantic drift improve, and warm SST errors are reduced in upwelling stratocumulus regions where the simulation of low-level cloud is better at higher resolution. The ocean model in HiGEM allows ocean eddies to be partially resolved, which dramatically improves the representation of sea surface height variability. In the Southern Ocean, most of the heat transports in HiGEM is achieved by resolved eddy motions, which replaces the parameterized eddy heat transport in the lower-resolution model. HiGEM is also able to more realistically simulate small-scale features in the wind stress curl around islands and oceanic SST fronts, which may have implications for oceanic upwelling and ocean biology.
Higher resolution in both the atmosphere and the ocean allows coupling to occur on small spatial scales. In particular, the small-scale interaction recently seen in satellite imagery between the atmosphere and tropical instability waves in the tropical Pacific Ocean is realistically captured in HiGEM. Tropical instability waves play a role in improving the simulation of the mean state of the tropical Pacific, which has important implications for climate variability. In particular, all aspects of the simulation of ENSO (spatial patterns, the time scales at which ENSO occurs, and global teleconnections) are much improved in HiGEM.
U.K. HiGEM Woodage, M. J.; Woodward, S.
Journal of climate,
08/2014, Letnik:
27, Številka:
15
Journal Article
Recenzirano
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This work investigates the impacts of mineral dust aerosol on climate using the atmospheric component of the U.K. High-Resolution Global Environmental Model (HiGEM) with an interactive embedded ...mineral dust scheme. It extends earlier work by Woodage et al. in which direct radiative forcing due to dust was calculated and in which itwas reported that the global total dust burden was increased when this was included in the model. Here this result is analyzed further and the regional and global impacts are investigated. It is found that particle size distribution is critically important: In regions where large, more absorbent dust particles are present, burdens are increased because of the enhanced heating aloft, which strengthens convection, whereas, in areas where smaller, more scattering particles dominate, the surface layers are stabilized and dust emissions are decreased. The consequent changes in dust load and particle size distribution when radiative effects are included make the annual mean global forcing more positive at the top of the atmosphere (0.33 versus 0.05 W m−2). Impacts on the West African monsoon are also considered, where Saharan dust brings about a northward shift in the summertime intertropical convergence zone with increased precipitation on its northern side. This contrasts with results from some other studies, but the authors’ findings are supported by recent observational data. They argue that the impacts depend crucially on the size distribution and radiative properties of the dust particles, which are poorly known on a global scale and differ here from those used in other models.
In this study we examine the anthropogenically forced climate response over the historical period, 1860 to present, and projected response to 2100, using updated emissions scenarios and an improved ...coupled model (HadCM3) that does not use flux adjustments. We concentrate on four new Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) namely (A1FI, A2, B2, B1) prepared for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Third Assessment Report, considered more self-consistent in their socio-economic and emissions structure, and therefore more policy relevant, than older scenarios like IS92a. We include an interactive model representation of the anthropogenic sulfur cycle and both direct and indirect forcings from sulfate aerosols, but omit the second indirect forcing effect through cloud lifetimes. The modelled first indirect forcing effect through cloud droplet size is near the centre of the IPCC uncertainty range. We also model variations in tropospheric and stratospheric ozone. Greenhouse gas-forced climate change response in B2 resembles patterns in IS92a but is smaller. Sulfate aerosol and ozone forcing substantially modulates the response, cooling the land, particularly northern mid-latitudes, and altering the monsoon structure. By 2100, global mean warming in SRES scenarios ranges from 2.6 to 5.3 K above 1900 and precipitation rises by 1%/K through the twenty first century (1.4%/K omitting aerosol changes). Large-scale patterns of response broadly resemble those in an earlier model (HadCM2), but with important regional differences, particularly in the tropics. Some divergence in future response occurs across scenarios for the regions considered, but marked drying in the mid-USA and southern Europe and significantly wetter conditions for South Asia, in June-July-August, are robust and significant.PUBLICATION ABSTRACT
The production of dimethylsulphide (DMS) by ocean phytoplankton is hypothesized to form part of a feedback process on global climate. Changes in the DMS flux to the atmosphere cause changes to ...aerosols for cloud formation, leading to changes in the amount of radiation reaching the ocean, and hence on the planktonic production of DMS. This hypothesis has been investigated using a coupled ocean‐atmosphere general circulation model (COAGCM) that includes an ocean ecosystem model and an atmospheric sulphur cycle. Ocean DMS concentrations are parameterised as a function of chlorophyll, nutrient and light. The results of several sensitivity experiments are presented showing significant global climate change responses to perturbations in ocean DMS production. A small negative feedback from climate change onto ocean DMS production is found and the implications are discussed.
The temporal variability of the atmosphere through which radio waves pass in the technique of differential radar interferometry can seriously limit the accuracy with which the method can measure ...surface motion. A forward, nested mesoscale model of the atmosphere can be used to simulate the variable water content along the radar path and the resultant phase delays. Using this approach we demonstrate how to correct an interferogram of Mount Etna in Sicily associated with an eruption in 2004–5. The regional mesoscale model (Unified Model) used to simulate the atmosphere at higher resolutions consists of four nested domains increasing in resolution (12, 4, 1, 0.3
km), sitting within the analysis version of a global numerical model that is used to initiate the simulation. Using the high resolution 3D model output we compute the surface pressure, temperature and the water vapour, liquid and solid water contents, enabling the dominant hydrostatic and wet delays to be calculated at specific times corresponding to the acquisition of the radar data. We can also simulate the second-order delay effects due to liquid water and ice.
►Correction method for atmospheric delays affecting InSAR. ►Uses nested forward atmospheric model (Unified Model). ►Applied to deformation interferograms on Etna volcano.
The indirect effects of anthropogenic sulfate aerosols on the albedo and lifetime of clouds may produce a significant impact on the climate system. A `state of the art' general circulation model ...(GCM) which includes an interactive sulfur cycle and a physically based cloud microphysics scheme is coupled to a mixed-layer ocean model in order to study the impact of the indirect effects on the coupled climate system. The linearity of the two indirect effects on the model response is also investigated by including each effect separately in the model. The response of the sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and sea ice is found to provide an important feedback on the cooling at high latitudes and the change in meridional SST gradient results in a southward shift of the inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ). The sensitivity of the model to the forcing from the indirect effects of sulfate aerosol is found to be similar to, but slightly weaker than that obtained from a doubling of CO^sub 2^.PUBLICATION ABSTRACT
The effects of anthropogenic sulphate aerosol on cloud albedo and on precipitation efficiency (the first and second indirect effects, respectively) are investigated using a new version of the Hadley ...Centre climate model. This version includes a new cloud microphysics scheme, an interactive sulphur cycle, and a parameterization of the effects of sea salt aerosol. The combined global mean radiative impact from both indirect effects is estimated to be approximately −1.9 W m−2 in terms of the change in net cloud forcing, with the “albedo” effect dominating: we obtain values of −1.3 and −0.5 W m−2 for the first and second effects, respectively, when calculated separately. The estimate for the combined effect has at least a factor of 2 uncertainty associated with it: for example, alternative assumptions which affect the concentration of natural “background” sulphate aerosol reduce the forcing by over 25%, and different parameterizations of the autoconversion of cloud droplets to rainwater can double the forcing.
Using a coupled atmosphere/ocean general circulation model, we have simulated the climatic response to natural and anthropogenic forcings from 1860 to 1997. The model, HadCM3, requires no flux ...adjustment and has an interactive sulphur cycle, a simple parameterization of the effect of aerosols on cloud albedo (first indirect effect), and a radiation scheme that allows explicit representation of well‐mixed greenhouse gases. Simulations were carried out in which the model was forced with changes in natural forcings (solar irradiance and stratospheric aerosol due to explosive volcanic eruptions), well‐mixed greenhouse gases alone, tropospheric anthropogenic forcings (tropospheric ozone, well‐mixed greenhouse gases, and the direct and first indirect effects of sulphate aerosol), and anthropogenic forcings (tropospheric anthropogenic forcings and stratospheric ozone decline). Using an “optimal detection” methodology to examine temperature changes near the surface and throughout the free atmosphere, we find that we can detect the effects of changes in well‐mixed greenhouse gases, other anthropogenic forcings (mainly the effects of sulphate aerosols on cloud albedo), and natural forcings. Thus these have all had a significant impact on temperature. We estimate the linear trend in global mean near‐surface temperature from well‐mixed greenhouse gases to be 0.9 ± 0.24 K/century, offset by cooling from other anthropogenic forcings of 0.4 ± 0.26 K/century, giving a total anthropogenic warming trend of 0.5 ± 0.15 K/century. Over the entire century, natural forcings give a linear trend close to zero. We found no evidence that simulated changes in near‐surface temperature due to anthropogenic forcings were in error. However, the simulated tropospheric response, since the 1960s, is ∼50% too large. Our analysis suggests that the early twentieth century warming can best be explained by a combination of warming due to increases in greenhouse gases and natural forcing, some cooling due to other anthropogenic forcings, and a substantial, but not implausible, contribution from internal variability. In the second half of the century we find that the warming is largely caused by changes in greenhouse gases, with changes in sulphates and, perhaps, volcanic aerosol offsetting approximately one third of the warming. Warming in the troposphere, since the 1960s, is probably mainly due to anthropogenic forcings, with a negligible contribution from natural forcings.
Carbon cycle feedbacks are a significant source of uncertainty in climate change projections, with the potential for strong positive feedbacks to accelerate the rate of anthropogenic global warming ...during the 21st century. A climate change experiment is presented which uses a General Circulation Model (GCM) in which both interactive carbon and sulphur cycles have been included for the first time, along with the natural climate forcings due to solar changes and volcanic aerosol. These extra climate forcing factors have a significant impact on both 20th century climate change and the contemporary land and ocean carbon sinks. The additional forcings act to delay by more than a decade the conversion of the land carbon sink to a source, but ultimately result in a more abrupt rate of CO2 increase with the land carbon source (which reaches 7 GtC yr−1 by 2100) exceeding the ocean carbon sink (which saturates at 5 GtC yr−1 by 2100) beyond about 2080.
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