Abstract Background The improvement in discrimination gained by adding nontraditional cardiovascular risk markers cited in the 2013 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association ...cholesterol guidelines to the atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk estimator (pooled cohort equation PCE) is untested. Objectives This study assessed the predictive accuracy and improvement in reclassification gained by the addition of the coronary artery calcium (CAC) score, the ankle–brachial index (ABI), high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP) levels, and family history (FH) of ASCVD to the PCE in participants of MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis). Methods The PCE was calibrated (cPCE) and used for this analysis. The Cox proportional hazards survival model, Harrell’s C statistics, and net reclassification improvement analyses were used. ASCVD was defined as myocardial infarction, coronary heart disease–related death, or fatal or nonfatal stroke. Results Of 6,814 MESA participants not prescribed statins at baseline, 5,185 had complete data and were included in this analysis. Their mean age was 61 years; 53.1% were women, 9.8% had diabetes, and 13.6% were current smokers. After 10 years of follow-up, 320 (6.2%) ASCVD events occurred. CAC score, ABI, and FH were independent predictors of ASCVD events in the multivariable Cox models. CAC score modestly improved the Harrell’s C statistic (0.74 vs. 0.76; p = 0.04); ABI, hsCRP levels, and FH produced no improvement in Harrell’s C statistic when added to the cPCE. Conclusions CAC score, ABI, and FH were independent predictors of ASCVD events. CAC score modestly improved the discriminative ability of the cPCE compared with other nontraditional risk markers.
Accurate risk assessment of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) is essential to effectively balance the risks and benefits of therapy for primary prevention.
To compare the calibration and ...discrimination of the new American Heart Association (AHA) and American College of Cardiology (ACC) ASCVD risk score with alternative risk scores and to explore preventive therapy as a cause of the reported risk overestimation using the AHA-ACC-ASCVD score.
Prospective epidemiologic study of ASCVD.
MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis), a community-based, sex-balanced, multiethnic cohort.
4227 MESA participants aged 50 to 74 years and without diabetes at baseline.
Observed and expected events for the AHA-ACC-ASCVD score were compared with 4 commonly used risk scores-and their respective end points-in MESA after a 10.2-year follow-up.
The new AHA-ACC-ASCVD and 3 older Framingham-based risk scores overestimated cardiovascular events by 37% to 154% in men and 8% to 67% in women. Overestimation was noted throughout the continuum of risk. In contrast, the Reynolds Risk Score overestimated risk by 9% in men but underestimated risk by 21% in women. Aspirin, lipid-lowering or antihypertensive therapy, and interim revascularization did not explain the overestimation.
Comparability of MESA with target populations for primary prevention and possibility of missed events in MESA.
Of the 5 risk scores, 4, including the new AHA-ACC-ASCVD score, showed overestimation of risk (25% to 115%) in a modern, multiethnic cohort without baseline clinical ASCVD. If validated, overestimation of ASCVD risk may have substantial implications for individual patients and the health care system.
National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute.
To evaluate the 2013 American Heart Association (AHA)-American College of Cardiology (ACC)-Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease (ASCVD) risk score among four different race/ethnic groups and to ...ascertain which factors are most associated with risk overestimation by the AHA-ACC-ASCVD score.
The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA), a prospective community-based cohort, was used to examine calibration and discrimination of the AHA-ACC-ASCVD risk score in 6441 White, Black, Chinese, and Hispanic Americans (aged 45-79 years and free of known ASCVD at baseline). Using univariable and multivariable absolute risk regression, we modelled the impact of individual risk factors on the discordance between observed and predicted 10-year ASCVD risk. Overestimation was observed in all race/ethnic groups in MESA and was highest among Chinese (252% for women and 314% for men) and lowest in White women (72%) and Hispanic men (67%). Higher age, Chinese race/ethnicity (when compared with White), systolic blood pressure (treated and untreated), diabetes, alcohol use, exercise, lipid-lowering medication, and aspirin use were all associated with more risk overestimation, whereas family history was associated with less risk overestimation in a multivariable model (all P < 0.05).
The AHA-ACC-ASCVD risk score overestimates ASCVD risk among men, women, and all four race/ethnic groups evaluated in a modern American primary prevention cohort. Clinicians treating patients similar to those in MESA, particularly older individuals and those with factors associated with more risk overestimation, may consider interpreting absolute ASCVD risk estimates with caution.
Presence of coronary artery calcium (CAC), carotid plaque, and increased carotid intima-media thickness (IMT) may indicate elevated cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk; however, no large studies have ...compared them directly. This study compares predictive uses of CAC presence, carotid artery plaque presence, and high IMT for incident CVD events.
Participants were from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA). Predictive values of carotid plaque, IMT, and CAC presence were compared using Cox proportional hazards models, c-statistics, and net reclassification indices. The 6779 participants were mean (SD) 62.2 (10.2) years old; 49.9% had CAC, and 46.7% had carotid plaque. The mean left and right IMT were 0.754 (0.210) mm and 0.751 (0.187) mm, respectively. After 9.5 years (mean), 538 CVD events, 388 coronary heart disease (CHD) events, and 196 stroke/transient ischemic attacks were observed. CAC presence was a stronger predictor of incident CVD and CHD than carotid ultrasound measures. Mean IMT≥75th percentile (for age, sex, and race) alone did not predict events. Compared with traditional risk factors, c-statistics for CVD (c=0.756) and CHD (c=0.752) increased the most by the addition of CAC presence (CVD, 0.776; CHD, 0.784; P<0.001) followed by carotid plaque presence (CVD, c=0.760; CHD, c=0.757; P<0.05). Compared with risk factors (c=0.782), carotid plaque presence (c=0.787; P=0.045) but not CAC (c=0.785; P=0.438) improved prediction of stroke/transient ischemic attacks.
In adults without CVD, CAC presence improves prediction of CVD and CHD more than carotid plaque presence or high IMT. CAC and carotid ultrasound parameters performed similarly for stroke/transient ischemic attack event prediction.
Background
Coronary artery calcium (CAC) predicts coronary heart disease (CHD) events better than carotid wall plaque presence; however, differences in the utility of CAC burden and carotid plaque ...burden across the spectrum of cardiovascular disease (CVD) events is unknown.
Methods and Results
CVD, CHD and stroke/transient ischemic attack (TIA) events were evaluated prospectively in a multiethnic cohort without CVD at baseline. Carotid plaque score was determined by the number of ultrasound‐detected plaques in the common, bifurcation, and internal carotid artery segments. CAC was detected by computed tomography. Predictive values were compared using Cox proportional hazards models, C‐statistics, and net reclassification, adjusting for traditional CVD risk factors. At baseline, the 4955 participants were mean (SD) 61.6 (10.1) years old and 52.8% female; 48.9% had CAC >0 and 50.8% had at least 1 carotid plaque. After 11.3 (3.0) years of follow‐up, 709 CVD, 498 CHD, and 262 stroke/TIA events occurred. CAC score compared to carotid plaque score was a stronger predictor of CVD (hazard ratio HR, 1.78; 95% CI, 1.16–1.98; P<0.001 vs HR, 1.27; 95% CI, 1.16–1.40; P<0.001) and CHD events (HR, 2.09; 95% CI, 1.84–2.38; P<0.001 vs HR, 1.35; 95% CI, 1.21–1.51; P<0.001). CAC score and carotid plaque score were weak predictors of stroke/TIA. CAC score had better reclassification statistics than carotid plaque score, except for stroke/TIA, which had similar predictive values.
Conclusions
CAC score improved prediction, discrimination, and reclassification of CVD and CHD better than carotid ultrasound measures, although prediction and discrimination were similar for stroke/TIA.
The term frailty is being increasingly used by clinicians, however there is no strict consensus on the best screening method. The expectation in England is that all older patients should have the ...Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS) completed on admission. This will frequently rely on junior medical staff and nurses, raising the question as to whether there is consistency. We asked 124 members of a multidisciplinary team (consultants, junior doctors, nurses, and allied health professionals; physiotherapists, occupational therapists, dietitians, speech and language therapists) to complete the CFS for seven case scenarios. The majority of the participants, 91/124 (72%), were trainee medical staff, 16 were senior medical staff, 12 were allied health professions, and 6 were nurses. There was broad agreement both between the professions and within the professions, with median CFS scores varying by a maximum of only one point, except in case scenario G, where there was a two-point difference between the most junior trainees (FY1) and the nursing staff. No difference (using the Mann–Whitney U test) was found between the different staff groups, with the median scores and range of scores being similar. This study has confirmed there is agreement between different staff members when calculating the CFS with no specific preceding training.
Background and Purpose- Dietary sodium reduction with concurrent increase in potassium intake is a current public health priority to reduce risk of cardiovascular events. This study explored ...associations between the spot urine sodium-to-potassium ratio and cardiovascular events in the MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis) longitudinal cohort. Methods- The MESA is a prospective cohort study of 6814 adults from 4 ethnic groups (European-, Asian-, African- and Hispanic-American) with a mean age of 62 (±10.2) years and an average of 11.7 (±2.2) years of follow-up. Participants were free of clinical cardiovascular disease at baseline. Spot urine sodium and potassium excretion, as a marker of dietary intake, was collected at baseline. The impact of urinary sodium-to-potassium ratio on adjudicated cardiovascular events was assessed using Cox proportional hazards models. Results- Only 39% of MESA participants had a urinary sodium-to-potassium ratio ≤1, and these participants experienced only 74 of the 236 strokes. A sodium-to-potassium ratio >1 was associated with a hazard ratio of 1.47 (95% CI,1.07-2.00) for risk of stroke, adjusting for age, sex, race, cardiovascular risk factors, socio-demographic characteristics, body size, and kidney function. Conclusions- The spot urine sodium-to-potassium ratio (measurable in routine care) is associated with stroke. A urine sodium-to-potassium ratio of ≤1, may be related to a clinically relevant reduction in stroke risk and is a feasible target for health interventions.
Vitamin K-dependent proteins (VKDPs), which require post-translational modification to achieve biological activity, seem to contribute to thrombus formation, vascular calcification, and vessel ...stiffness. Whether VKDP activity is prospectively associated with incident cardiovascular disease has not been studied.
VKDP activity was determined by measuring circulating des-γ-carboxy prothrombin concentrations in a random sample of 709 multiethnic adults free of cardiovascular disease drawn from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA). Lower des-γ-carboxy prothrombin concentrations reflect greater VKDP activity. Subjects were followed up for the risk of ischemic cardiovascular disease (coronary heart disease, stroke, and fatal cardiovascular disease) for 11.0 years of follow-up. A total of 75 first ischemic CVD events occurred during follow-up. The incidence of ischemic cardiovascular disease increased progressively across des-γ-carboxy prothrombin quartiles, with event rates of 5.9 and 11.7 per 1000 person-years in the lowest and highest quartiles. In analyses adjusted for traditional cardiovascular risk factors and measures of vitamin K intake, a doubling of des-γ-carboxy prothrombin concentration was associated with a 1.53 (95% confidence interval, 1.09-2.13; P=0.008) higher risk of incident ischemic cardiovascular disease. The association was consistent across strata of participants with diabetes mellitus, hypertension, renal impairment, and low vitamin K nutritional intake.
In this sample of middle-aged and older adults, VKDP activity was associated with incident ischemic cardiovascular events. Further studies to understand the role of this large class of proteins in cardiovascular disease are warranted.
Background We hypothesized that measures of common carotid artery echolucency and grayscale texture features were associated with cardiovascular disease ( CVD ) risk factors and could predict CVD ...events. Methods and Results Using a case-cohort design, we measured common carotid artery ultrasound images from 1788 participants in Exam 1 of the MESA study (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis) to derive 4 grayscale features: grayscale median, entropy, gray level difference statistic-contrast, and spatial gray level dependence matrices-angular second moment. CVD risk factor associations were determined by linear regression. Cox proportional hazard models with inverse selection probability weighting and adjustments for age, sex, race/ethnicity, CVD risk factors, and C-reactive protein were used to determine if standardized values for grayscale median, entropy, gray level difference statistic-contrast, and spatial gray level dependence matrices-angular second moment could predict incident coronary heart disease, stroke, and total CVD events over a median 13 years follow-up. Participants were mean ( SD ) 63.1 (10.3) years of age, 52.6% female, 32.1% white, 27.8% black, 23.3% Hispanic, and 16.8% Chinese. There were 283 coronary heart disease, 120 stroke, and 416 CVD events. Several associations of grayscale features with CVD risk factors were identified. In fully adjusted models, higher gray level difference statistic-contrast was associated with a lower risk of incident coronary heart disease (hazard ratio 0.82, 95% CI 0.71-0.94, p
=0.005) and CVD events (hazard ratio 0.87, 95% CI 0.77-0.98, p
=0.018); higher spatial gray level dependence matrices-angular second moment was associated with a higher risk of CVD events (hazard ratio 1.09, 95% CI 1.00-1.19, p
=0.044). Conclusions Gray level difference statistic-contrast and spatial gray level dependence matrices-angular second moment predicted CVD events independent of risk factors, indicating their potential use as biomarkers to assess future CVD risk.
This pilot study determined if the ultrasound texture feature "contrast" was associated with cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors and subclinical arterial disease.
We evaluated ultrasound images ...of the right common carotid artery (CCA) from a convenience sample of 151 participants and examined relationships between contrast, CVD risk factors, carotid intima-media thickness (IMT) and coronary artery calcium (CAC). Grey level difference statistics algorithms were used to evaluate the texture feature "contrast" from carotid ultrasound images. Right CCA IMT measurements were made in triplicate in the distal 1 cm segment of the far wall of the artery and CAC score was measured using the Agatston scoring method.
In individual models that included age, sex and race, grey level difference statistics contrast (outcome) was associated independently with age beta (standard error) = -0.87 (0.38) per year; p = 0.02, C-reactive protein -2.22 (0.96) per mg dl
; p = 0.02, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol 0.61 (0.24) per mg dl
; p = 0.01 and CCA IMT -0.06 (0.02) microns; p = 0.001. Other CVD risk factors and CAC were not associated independently with contrast.
These findings support the potential use of the ultrasound texture contrast for evaluating arterial injury and CVD risk. Advances in knowledge: This paper contributes to the literature in that it describes how the greyscale texture feature "contrast" is related to CVD risk factors.
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