Asset Price Bubbles and Systemic Risk Brunnermeier, Markus; Rother, Simon; Schnabel, Isabel
The Review of financial studies,
09/2020, Letnik:
33, Številka:
9
Journal Article
Recenzirano
We analyze the relationship between asset price bubbles and systemic risk, using bank-level data covering almost 30 years. Banks’ systemic risk already rises during a bubble’s buildup and even more ...so during its bust. The increase in risk strongly differs across banks and by bubble. It depends on bank characteristics (especially bank size) and bubble characteristics and can become very large: in a median real estate bust, systemic risk increases by almost 70% of the median for banks with unfavorable characteristics. These results emphasize the importance of bank-level factors in the buildup of financial fragility during bubble episodes.
We investigate the transmission of monetary policy to household consumption using administrative data on the universe of households in Norway. On the basis of identified monetary policy shocks, we ...estimate the dynamic responses of consumption, income, and saving along the liquid asset distribution of households. For low-liquidity but also for high-liquidity households, changes in disposable income are associated with a sizable consumption reaction. The impact consumption response is closely linked to interest rate exposure, which is negative at the bottom but positive at the top of the distribution. Indirect effects of monetary policy gradually build up and eventually outweigh the direct effects.
Daughters and Divorce Kabátek, Jan; Ribar, David C
The Economic journal (London),
07/2021, Letnik:
131, Številka:
637
Journal Article
Recenzirano
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Abstract
Are couples with daughters more likely to divorce than couples with sons? Using Dutch registry and US survey data, we show that couples with daughters face higher risks of divorce, but only ...when daughters are 13- to 18-years-old. These age-specific results run counter to explanations involving overarching, time-invariant preferences for sons and sex-selection into live birth. We propose another explanation that involves relationship strains in families with teenage daughters. In subsample analyses, we find larger child-gender differences in divorce risks for parents whose attitudes towards gender-roles are likely to differ from those of their daughters and partners. We also find survey evidence of relationship strains in families with teenage daughters.
We examine whether, how, and why acquirer shareholder voting matters. We show that acquirers with low institutional ownership, high deal risk, and high agency costs are more likely to bypass ...shareholder voting. Such acquirers have lower announcement returns and make higher offers than those who do not. To avoid a shareholder vote, acquirers increase equity issuance and cut payouts to raise the portion of cash in mixed-payment deals. Employing a regression discontinuity design, we show a positive effect on acquirer announcement returns concentrated in acquirers with higher institutional ownership. We conclude that shareholder voting mitigates agency problems in corporate acquisitions.
The US Gains From Trade Costinot, Arnaud; Rodríguez-Clare, Andrés
The Journal of economic perspectives,
04/2018, Letnik:
32, Številka:
2
Journal Article
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About eight cents out of every dollar spent in the United States is spent on imports. What if, because of a wall or some other extreme policy intervention, imports were to remain on the other side of ...the US border? How much would US consumers be willing to pay to prevent this hypothetical policy change from taking place? The answer to this question represents the welfare cost from autarky or, equivalently, the welfare gains from trade. In this article, we discuss how to evaluate these gains using estimates of the demand for foreign factor services.
Abstract
This article studies the impact of the Great Recession on the relationship between reallocation and productivity dynamics in Lithuania. Using detailed micro-level data, we first document the ...aggregate contribution of firm dynamics and employment reallocation to productivity growth. Next, we estimate firm-level regressions to confirm the findings and to perform a heterogeneity analysis. The analysis shows that productivity shielded firms from exit, and that this relationship became stronger during the Great Recession. Moreover, we demonstrate that more productive firms experienced on average lower employment losses, especially during the economic slump. Taken together, our results suggest that reallocation was productivity-enhancing during the Great Recession. However, the analysis also indicates that the intensity varied with the sector’s dependence on external financing or international trade as well as market concentration.
Abstract
How do events that highlight a policy issue impact political preferences? In this paper, I analyze the impact of mass shootings on voter behavior. I show that, conditional on population, ...mass shootings are largely random events. Using a difference-in-differences strategy, I find that mass shootings result in a 1.7 percentage point loss in Republican vote share in counties where they occur. Identification that relies on comparing successful and failed mass shootings yields similar results. Mass shootings lead to an increase in the salience of gun policy and increase the divide on gun policy among both voters and politicians. Democrats (Republicans) tend to demand even stricter (looser) gun control after mass shootings. These results suggest that increasing the salience of an issue may polarize the electorate.
We seek to identify the causal effect of sentiment innovations on consumption. Using unique Australian consumer sentiment survey data, we show that, immediately after elections with a change of ...government, supporters of the winning party report substantially more optimistic beliefs about economic conditions than supporters of the losing party. We argue that this variation in beliefs is orthogonal to changes in fundamentals and find robust evidence that the shifts in sentiment affect spending intentions. Furthermore, using geographic variation in sentiment, vote shares, and automobile purchases, we find evidence that stated spending intentions are indicative of actual spending.
Although party system change has been widely explored, it is less so for the regional level. The article provides the first systematic attempt to discuss party system change at the regional level in ...Italy. Through a comprehensive overview of the five 1995-2015 regional elections, indicators of party system change, based on an original database, are explored. It will be showed that in the 2013-15 election cycle while party system fragmentation, volatility and recomposition reached their maximum high - parallel to what happened in 1995 - the level of bipolarism, one of the main features of Italian party system since the mid-1990s, dramatically dropped replaced by a three-pole configuration. These results, and their consistency with the relevant junctures at the national level in 1994 and 2013, may allow to state that a party system change at the regional level occurred and thus to consider 2013-15 elections as critical.
We analyse whether individual financial risk propensity changes over time with background financial conditions, as well as personal and subjective portfolio risk exposure. We elicit risk propensity ...from six different self‐assessed facets collected in a long panel data set from the DNB Household Survey, annually covering the period 1995–2015. Risk propensity is generally higher during periods of economic growth and lower during periods of recession, but is untrended when elicited, using questions referring to safe investments. Our risk propensity measure is also higher following positive stock market returns or subjectively large risk exposure in own past investments.
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