Desert dust is currently recognized as a health risk factor. Therefore, the World Health Organization (WHO) is actively promoting the establishment of early warning systems for sand and dust storms. ...This study introduces a methodology to estimate the probability of African dust outbreaks occurring in eight different regions of the Iberian Peninsula and the Balearic Islands. In each region, a multilinear regression model was developed to calculate daily probabilities of dust events using three thermodynamic variables (geopotential thickness in the 1000–500 hPa layer, mean potential temperature between 925 and 700 hPa, and temperature anomalies at 850 hPa) as assessment parameters. All days with African dust transport over each study region were identified in the period 2001–2021 using a proven procedure. This information was then utilized to establish a functional relationship between the values of the thermodynamic parameters and the probability of African dust outbreaks occurring. The validation of this methodology involved comparing the daily probabilities of dust events generated by the models in 2001–2021 with the daily African dust contributions to PM10 regional background levels in each region. On average, daily dust contributions increased proportionally with the increase in daily probabilities, reaching zero for days with low probabilities. Furthermore, a well-defined seasonal evolution of probability values was observed in all regions, with the highest values in the summer months and the lowest in the winter period, ensuring the physical relevance of the models' results. Finally, upward trends were observed in all regions for the three thermodynamic parameters over 1940–2021. Thus, the probability of dust events development also increased in this period. It demonstrates that the aggravation of warm conditions in southern Europe in the last decades, have modified the frequency of North-African dust outbreaks over the western Mediterranean basin.
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•African dust events degrade air quality in SW Europe.•A new method for estimating the probability of dust events occurrence is proposed.•Thermodynamic atmospheric variables were used as assessing parameters.•Future estimations and past events can be assessed with this methodology.•The methodology could be replicated elsewhere with adequate assessing parameters.
The last two decades have seen a dramatic decline and strong year-to-year variability in Arctic winter sea ice, especially in the Barents-Kara Sea (BKS), changes that have been linked to extreme ...midlatitude weather and climate. It has been suggested that these changes in winter sea ice arise largely from a combined effect of oceanic and atmospheric processes, but the relative importance of these processes is not well established. Here, we explore the role of atmospheric circulation patterns on BKS winter sea ice variability and trends using observations and climate model simulations. We find that BKS winter sea ice variability is primarily driven by a strong anticyclonic anomaly over the region, which explains more than 50% of the interannual variability in BKS sea-ice concentration (SIC). Recent intensification of the anticyclonic anomaly has warmed and moistened the lower atmosphere in the BKS by poleward transport of moist-static energy and local processes, resulting in an increase in downwelling longwave radiation. Our results demonstrate that the observed BKS winter sea-ice variability is primarily driven by atmospheric, rather than oceanic, processes and suggest a persistent role of atmospheric forcing in future Arctic winter sea ice loss.
Spatial climate datasets of 1981-2010 long-term mean monthly average dew point and minimum and maximum vapor pressure deficit were developed for the conterminous United States at 30-arcsec (~800m) ...resolution. Interpolation of long-term averages (twelve monthly values per variable) was performed using PRISM (Parameter-elevation Relationships on Independent Slopes Model). Surface stations available for analysis numbered only 4,000 for dew point and 3,500 for vapor pressure deficit, compared to 16,000 for previously-developed grids of 1981-2010 long-term mean monthly minimum and maximum temperature. Therefore, a form of Climatologically-Aided Interpolation (CAI) was used, in which the 1981-2010 temperature grids were used as predictor grids. For each grid cell, PRISM calculated a local regression function between the interpolated climate variable and the predictor grid. Nearby stations entering the regression were assigned weights based on the physiographic similarity of the station to the grid cell that included the effects of distance, elevation, coastal proximity, vertical atmospheric layer, and topographic position. Interpolation uncertainties were estimated using cross-validation exercises. Given that CAI interpolation was used, a new method was developed to allow uncertainties in predictor grids to be accounted for in estimating the total interpolation error. Local land use/land cover properties had noticeable effects on the spatial patterns of atmospheric moisture content and deficit. An example of this was relatively high dew points and low vapor pressure deficits at stations located in or near irrigated fields. The new grids, in combination with existing temperature grids, enable the user to derive a full suite of atmospheric moisture variables, such as minimum and maximum relative humidity, vapor pressure, and dew point depression, with accompanying assumptions. All of these grids are available online at http://prism.oregonstate.edu, and include 800-m and 4-km resolution data, images, metadata, pedigree information, and station inventory files.
Free-stream turbulence (FST) and its effect on boundary-layer transition is an intricate problem. Elongated unsteady streamwise streaks of low and high speed are created inside the boundary layer and ...their amplitude and spanwise wavelength are believed to be important for the onset of transition. The transitional Reynolds number is often simply correlated with the turbulence intensity (${Tu}$), and the characteristic length scales of the FST are often considered to have a small to negligible influence on the transition location. Here, we present new results from a large experimental measurement campaign, where both the ${Tu}$ and the integral length scale ($\Lambda _x$) are varied ($1.8\,\% < {Tu}< 6.2\,\%$; $16\ \textrm {mm}< \Lambda _x < 26\ \textrm {mm}$). In the current experiments it has been noted that on the one hand, for small $Tu$, an increase in $\Lambda _x$ advances transition, which is in agreement with established results. On the other hand, for large $Tu$, an increase in $\Lambda _x$ postpones transition. This trend can be explained by the fact that an optimal ratio between FST length scale and boundary-layer thickness at transition onset exists. Furthermore, our results strengthen the fact that the streaks play a key role in the transition process by showing a clear dependence of the FST characteristics on their spanwise scale. Our measurements show that the aspect ratio of the streaky structures correlates with an FST Reynolds number and that the aspect ratio can change by a factor of two at the location of transition. Finally, we derive a semi-empirical transition prediction model, which is able to predict the influence of $\Lambda _x$ for both small and high values of ${Tu}$.
Tree-ring studies from tropical to subtropical regions are rarer than that from extratropical regions, which greatly limit our understanding of some critical climate change issues. Based on the ...tree-ring-width chronology of samples collected from the Dabie Mountains, we reconstructed the April–June mean temperature for this region with an explained variance of 46.8%. Five cold (1861–1869, 1889–1899, 1913–1920, 1936–1942 and 1952–1990) and three warm (1870–1888, 1922–1934 and 2000–2005) periods were identified in the reconstruction. The reconstruction not only agreed well with the instrumental records in and around the study area, but also showed good resemblance to previous temperature reconstructions from nearby regions, indicating its spatial and temporal representativeness of the temperature variation in the central part of eastern China. Although no secular warming trend was found, the warming trend since 1970 was unambiguous in the Dabie Mountains (0.064 °C/year). Further temperature comparison indicated that the start time of the recent warming in eastern China was regional different. It delayed gradually from north to south, starting at least around 1940 AD in the north part, around 1970 AD in the central part and around 1980s in the south part. This work enriches the high-resolution temperature reconstructions in eastern China. We expect that climate warming in the future would promote the radial growth of alpine
Pinus taiwanensis
in the subtropical areas of China, therefore promote the carbon capture and carbon storage in the
Pinus taiwanensis
forest. It also helps to clarify the regional characteristic of recent warming in eastern China.
•Tree-ring δ18O network indicates an east–west clustering pattern.•Regional variability of tree-ring δ18O is regulated by hydroclimatic changes.•Different patterns of tree-ring δ18O variability ...represent different moisture signals.•El Niño-Southern Oscillation modulates δ18Otree variability across southern China.
The East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) and Indian summer monsoon (ISM) are two interactive climate systems dominating the moisture variability of Monsoon Asia. However, ISM-EASM interactions and their effects on regional moisture dynamics remain unclear. This study investigated the spatiotemporal characteristics of monsoon-related hydroclimate variability by establishing a new tree-ring oxygen isotope ratio (δ18Otree) network of eight δ18Otree records covering the last 150 years in southern China, which differs from previous studies that used data from individual sites. The δ18Otree chronologies were found to be sensitive to regional hydroclimatic changes during the monsoon season. The δ18Otree network indicated an east–west clustering pattern in the ISM-EASM transitional zone, which demonstrates an asynchrony in δ18Otree variability in the west and east of this region. Regional variability of the west and east δ18Otree modes reflected the different moisture signals, as indicated by their significant correlations with modern observations and paleo-δ18O records in disparate upstream regions of moisture transport (the Indochina Peninsula and Southeast China). This finding was confirmed by the east–west distinct pattern of spatial isotopic depletion of monsoon rainfall that originates from coastal areas of tropical oceans (Bay of Bengal and South China Sea) to the study area, as well as the consistent present-day pattern of atmospheric vapor transport during the monsoon season. In addition, the west and east modes exhibited stronger associations with ISM variability, whereas the east–west δ18Otree gradient captured the EASM-related hydroclimatic signal, suggesting that summer moisture variability in the ISM-EASM transitional zone was regulated more by ISM than by EASM during the last 150 years. The relationships between δ18Otree and large-scale ocean–atmosphere interaction modes revealed that the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) dominantly modulates δ18Otree variability across southern China.
Knowledge of the seasonal positioning of the Intertropical Discontinuity (ITD) is critical to understanding seasonal moist convective processes and associated rainfall over West Africa. This study ...constitutes a new analysis of the seasonality of moist convection over West Africa, relative to the ITD, based on NASA's Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) measurements from 2003 to 2018. Results show that AIRS resolves the seasonal march of the ITD, including its inherent diurnal‐scale variations. AIRS captures the north–south daytime skin temperature dipole around the ITD, with greater relative temperatures to the north, especially during March–August. In the vicinity of the nighttime ITD, AIRS profiles indicate increased instability that is characteristic of nocturnal thunderstorm propagation. For seven Ghana weather stations, we show that AIRS positive moisture and equivalent potential temperature anomalies coincide with observed thunderstorm days. On these thunderstorm days, the mean latitude of the AIRS‐derived ITD is displaced 3°, 0.2°, and 2° north of its DJF, MAM, and SON climatological positions, respectively, and 1.2° south in JJA. Among four common thunderstorm initiation indices considered, the K‐index is determined to be most skillful. The findings of this study contribute to the Global Challenges Research Fund, African Science for Weather Information and Forecasting Techniques project's mission to build local tropical weather forecasting capacity and capabilities in West Africa.
This study constitutes a new analysis of the seasonality of moist convection over West Africa, relative to the ITD (dashed lines), based on AIRS measurements from 2003 to 2018. Results showed that, AIRS resolves the seasonal march of the ITD, including its inherent diurnal‐scale variations. On thunderstorm days, the AIRS‐derived ITD is displaced between 0.2° and 3° north (DJF, MAM and SON) and 1.2° south in JJA. The George's K‐index is most skillful for seasonal deep convection prediction.
The extratropical precipitation response to global warming is investigated within a 30-member initial condition climate model ensemble. As in observations, modeled cyclonic precipitation contributes ...a large fraction of extratropical precipitation, especially over the ocean and in the winter hemisphere. When compared to present day, the ensemble projects increased cyclone-associated precipitation under twenty-first century business-as-usual greenhouse gas forcing. While the cyclone-associated precipitation response is weaker in the near-future (2016–2035) than in the far-future (2081–2100), both future periods have similar patterns of response. Though cyclone frequency changes are important regionally, most of the increased cyclone-associated precipitation results from increased within-cyclone precipitation. Consistent with this result, cyclone-centric composites show statistically significant precipitation increases in all cyclone sectors. Decomposition into thermodynamic (mean cyclone water vapor path) and dynamic (mean cyclone wind speed) contributions shows that thermodynamics explains 92 and 95% of the near-future and far-future within-cyclone precipitation increases respectively. Surprisingly, the influence of dynamics on future cyclonic precipitation changes is negligible. In addition, the forced response exceeds internal variability in both future time periods. Overall, this work suggests that future cyclonic precipitation changes will result primarily from increased moisture availability in a warmer world, with secondary contributions from changes in cyclone frequency and cyclone dynamics.
We examine the effects of three basic but effective control strategies, namely uniform blowing, uniform suction, and body-force damping, on the intense Reynolds-stress events in the turbulent ...boundary layer (TBL) developing on the suction side of a NACA4412 airfoil. This flow is subjected to a non-uniform adverse pressure gradient (APG), which substantially modifies its turbulence statistics with respect to a zero-pressure-gradient (ZPG) boundary layer, and it also changes how control strategies affect the flow. The strong APG results in intense events that are shorter and more often detached from the wall than in ZPG TBLs. In a quadrant analysis, ejections remain the most relevant structures, but sweeps become more important than in ZPG TBLs, a fact that results in a lower contribution to the wall-normal velocity from intense Reynolds-stress events. Control effects are relatively less important on intense events than on the turbulent statistics. Uniform blowing has an impact similar to that of an even more intense APG, while uniform suction has more complex effects, most likely due to the particular behavior of the wall-normal velocity component near the wall. Body-force damping also reduces the probability of occurrence of very-large attached structures and that of intense events in the proximity of the actuation region. Our results show that intense Reynolds-stress events are robust features of the flow. If control strategies do not target directly these structures, their effects on the strong events is less pronounced than the effects on the mean flow.
•Control effects are less important on intense events than on the turbulent statistics.•Uniform blowing makes intense events slightly shorter.•Uniform suction makes intense events slightly longer.•Body-force damping reduces the probability of very-large wall-attached structures.
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