In Slovenia, longevity is increasing rapidly. From 1997 to 2014, life expectancy at birth increased by 7 and 5 years for men and women, respectively. This paper explores how this gain in life ...expectancy at birth can be attributed to reduced mortality from five major groups of causes of death by 5-year age groups. It also estimates potential future gains in life expectancy at birth.
The importance of the five major causes of death was analysed by cause-elimination life tables. The total elimination of individual causes of death and a partial hypothetical adjustment of mortality to Spanish levels were analysed, along with age and cause decomposition (Pollard).
During the 1997-2014 period, the increase in life expectancy at birth was due to lower mortality from circulatory diseases (ages above 60, both genders), as well as from lower mortality from neoplasms (ages above 50 years) and external causes (between 20 and 50 years) for men. However, considering the potential future gains in life expectancy at birth, by far the strongest effect can be attributed to lower mortality due to circulatory diseases for both genders. If Spanish mortality rates were reached, life expectancy at birth would increase by more than 2 years, again mainly because of lower mortality from circulatory diseases in very old ages.
Life expectancy analyses can improve evidence-based decision-making and allocation of resources among different prevention programmes and measures for more effective disease management that can also reduce the economic burden of chronic diseases.
The longevity of Slovenian Holstein population was analysed using survival analysis with a Weibull proportional hazard model. Data spanned the period between January 1991 and January 2010 for 116,200 ...cows from 3,891 herds. Longevity was described as the length of productive life - from first calving till culling or censoring. Records above the sixth lactation were censored to partially avoid preferential treatment. Statistical model included the effect of age at first calving, stage of lactation within parity, yearly herd size deviation, season defined as year, herd, and sire-maternal grandsire (mgs). Some effects had time varying covariates, which lead to 1,839,307 or on average 16 elementary records per cow. Herd and sire-maternal grandsire effects were modelled hierarchically. Pedigree for sires and maternal grandsires included 2,284 entries. Estimated variance between herds was 0.12, while between sire variance was 0.04. Heritability was evaluated at 0.14. Genetic trend for sires was unfavourable, but not significant. A further research is needed to define the required number of daughters per sire and the dynamics of genetic evaluation for sires whose majority of daughters still have censored records.
Za analizo dolgoživosti smo pri slovenski črno-beli populaciji govedi uporabili metodologijo analize preživetja in Weibullov model sorazmernih ogroženosti. V analizo smo vključili podatke 116.200 krav iz 3.891 čred skozi obdobje od januarja 1991 do januarja 2010. Dolgoživost je bila predstavljena kot doba produktivnega življenja, ki je definirana kot število od prve telitve do izločitve ali do datuma zajema podatkov za živali, ki so na ta datum bile še žive. Šesto in kasnejše laktacije smo okrnili na konec šeste laktacije, da smo omilili precenjenost boljših živali. V statistični model smo vključili vpliv starosti ob prvi telitvi, stadija laktacije ločeno za vsako zaporedno laktacijo, spreminjanje velikosti črede med leti, leto telitve, čredo, očeta in materinega očeta. Ravni nekaterih vplivov so časovno spremenljivi, kar povzroči, da smo v analizi obravnavali 1.839.307 zapisov ali povprečno 16 osnovnih zapisov na kravo. Čreda in vpliv očeta z materinim očetom sta bila v model vključena hierarhično. Rodovnik za očete in materine očete je obsegal 2.284 zapisov. Ocenjena varianca za vpliv črede je znašala 0,12, medtem ko je ocena variance med očeti znašala 0,04. Dednostni delež je bil ocenjen na 0,14. Genetski trend ima negativno smer, a ni statistično značilen. Potrebne bodo nadaljnje raziskave, da bomo določili zadostno število hčera po biku in dinamiko obračunov plemenskih vrednosti za bike, ki imajo večino hčera še v fazi prireje.
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