How do leaders communicate during domestic crises? We provide the first global analysis of world leader communication on social media during social unrest. We develop a theory of leaders’ digital ...communication strategies, building on the diversionary theory of foreign policy, as well as research on the role of democratic institutions in explaining elite responsiveness. To test our theory, we construct a new dataset that characterizes leader communication through social media posts published by any head of state or government on Twitter or Facebook, employing a combination of automated translation and supervised machine learning methods. Our findings show that leaders increase their social media activity and shift the topic from domestic to foreign policy issues during moments of social unrest, which is consistent with a conscious strategy to divert public attention when their position could be at risk. These effects are larger in democracies and in particular in the run-up to elections, which we attribute to incentives created by democratic institutions. Our results demonstrate how social media provide meaningful comparative insight into leaders’ political behavior in the digital age.
This article explores the relation between issue politicization and crisis‐induced learning by the EU. We performed a political claims analysis on the political response to the four major oil spill ...disasters that have occurred in European waters since 1993. Political claims that we observed in three arenas (mass media, national parliaments, and the European Parliament) were compared with recommendations in post‐crisis evaluation reports and the EU's legislative responses. For all three political arenas our findings indicate that politicization of issues either promotes or impedes crisis‐induced EU learning, which points to the existence of determining intervening factors. EU legislation that is adopted in response to oil spill disasters appears to a large extent grounded in crisis evaluation reports. Characteristics of crisis evaluation reports, especially the degree of international focus, seem to offer a more plausible explanation for variance in crisis‐induced learning outcomes than politicization.
This article draws on Walter Bagehot's distinction between efficient and dignified institutions to examine an understudied facet of the monarchy in Canada: the Crown's role in Canadian foreign ...policy. The Canadian Crown acts in global affairs in two ways: through the efficient prerogative powers of the Crown exercised by Cabinet, and by means of the dignified “public diplomacy” performed by the office of the governor general. The article demonstrates that the Crown's prerogative powers remain the underlying authority that Canadian governments exercise when pursuing foreign policy objectives and acting in the world. The article then traces the growth of the vice-regal office's foreign policy functions, as well how the governor general's public diplomacy efforts contribute to Canada's global engagement. The article concludes with a brief discussion of King Charles III's place in Canadian foreign affairs as the head of state of multiple, independent realms.
In The New Imperial Presidency, Andrew Rudalevige suggests that the congressional framework meant to advise and constrain presidential conduct since Watergate has slowly eroded. Rudalevige describes ...the evolution of executive power in our separated system of governance. He discusses the abuse of power that prompted what he calls the "resurgence regime" against the imperial presidency and inquires as to how and why—over the three decades that followed Watergate—presidents have regained their standing. Chief executives have always sought to interpret constitutional powers broadly. The ambitious president can choose from an array of strategies for pushing against congressional authority; finding scant resistance, he will attempt to expand executive control. Rudalevige's important and timely work reminds us that the freedoms secured by our system of checks and balances do not proceed automatically but depend on the exertions of public servants and the citizens they serve. His story confirms the importance of the "living Constitution," a tradition of historical experiences overlaying the text of the Constitution itself.
"No basta ser escritor sino parecerlo. Alberto Lleras era la imagen típica de un escritor de su tiempo encarnado en su propia caricatura: las espaldas triangulares, la palidez conventual, los huesos ...duros, las manos chamuscadas de fumador empedernido. Por ser periodista con todos sus vicios, no escribía con la caligrafía romántica de los letrados de entonces, sino en una Remington portátil de andar por ahí, y mejor que mejor con el susto de la última hora. O como dicen los periodistas: con la angustia del cierre. Los escritores fabricados por simple voluntarismo propio o ajeno, que son muchos y no siempre frustrados, hacen su oficio con rigor de cajero de banco. Los escritores naturales son devotos del azar. Escriben primero dentro de la cabeza y después ponen lo pensado en el papel cuando ya no hay más remedio. Si se logra la esquiva simetría entre los dos extremos, se genera el estado de gracia que los bisabuelos llamaban la inspiración." Gabriel García Márquez, en el prólogo a Memorias, de Alberto Lleras (Bogotá: Banco de la República y El Áncora Editores, 1997)
The Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 jeopardizes the country's independence and its chances for Western-style development. However, the heroic attitude of the Ukrainian people, combined with a ...solidifying national identity, makes the domestic foundations for a western turn stronger than ever. After the invasion, building strong foundations of liberal democracy will be a top priority. In addition to alleviating immediate problems, the country must also address its post-communist legacy and address the constraints of patronalism. The authors of this edited volume, leading Ukrainian scholars supplemented by colleagues from Hungary, examine the chances of an anti-patronal transformation after the war. The book provides an overview of the development of Ukraine's political-economic system: color revolutions in 2004 and 2014 brought democratic transformation, but no change in the patronage system The result was patronal regime cycles instead of the emergence of a Western-type liberal democracy in the country. Building on the conceptual framework of the editors' The Anatomy of Post-Communist Regimes (CEU Press, 2020), the 12 chapters examine the impact of the war on patronal democracy, the relational economy, clientelist society, and the international environment in which Ukraine operates. This collection is complemented by the book entitled Russia. Imperial Endeavor and Geopolitical Consequences.
Ramona Pedretti offers a comprehensive assessment of customary law rules on immunity of Heads of State and other State officials in the context of crimes pursuant to international law and their ...relationship with core principles of international law.
How do domestic political conditions shape when leaders get punished for backing down in international crises? We explore how three factors—the president’s partisanship, the reaction of other elites, ...and whether the president justifies his decision on the basis of new information—influence the size of domestic audience costs. While standard theories in American politics suggest that partisanship should exert a large effect over voter behavior, we offer an alternative theory explaining why the president’s unique informational advantage following a crisis will mute partisanship’s effect on audience costs. We argue that the president’s justification for why he backed down, however, will have a large effect on audience costs. Using a series of original survey experiments, we find strong support for our theoretical argument. We conclude by discussing the implications of these findings for the role of partisanship, framing, and the audience costs literature more broadly.
Old-fashioned racism (OFR) was unrelated to white Americans’ partisan preferences throughout the post-civil rights era. This study argues OFR could return to white partisanship following decades of ...dormancy because of Obama’s presidency. After first demonstrating that such attitudes were significantly stronger predictors of opposition to Obama than ideologically similar white Democrats, I support that spillover hypothesis with the following evidence: opposition to interracial dating was correlated with white partisanship in 2009 despite being unrelated to party identification in 12 earlier surveys; moreover, evaluations of Obama completely mediated that relationship between OFR and partisanship; old-fashioned racism predicted changes in white panelists’ partisanship between 2006 and 2011; these attitudes were also a stronger determinant of midterm vote preferences in 2010 than they were in 2006, with that relationship once again mediated by President Obama; and experimentally connecting Obama to congressional candidates significantly increased the relationship between OFR and 2010 preferences.
In liberal democracies, the approval ratings of political leaders have been shown to track citizens' perceptions of the state of the economy. By contrast, in illiberal democracies and competitive ...autocracies, leaders are often thought to boost their popularity by exploiting nationalism, exaggerating external threats, and manipulating the media. Using time-series data, I examine the determinants of presidential approval in Russia since 1991, a period in which leaders' ratings swung between extremes. I find that Yeltsin's and Putin's ratings were, in fact, closely linked to public perceptions of economic performance, which, in turn, reflected objective economic indicators. Although media manipulation, wars, terrorist attacks, and other events also mattered, Putin's unprecedented popularity and the decline in Yeltsin's are well explained by the contrasting economic circumstances over which each presided.
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