The management of social-ecological systems often presents a complex and wicked problem due to interactions between natural processes and varied, sometimes opposing, stakeholder goals. The adaptive ...management and participatory modelling processes are often used either to manage or in support of the management of social-ecological systems but are not always used in concert. We suggest that these processes are naturally complementary with overlapping components and between-process feedback. As such, we advocate that adaptive management should make use of participatory modelling for the management of social-ecological systems to increase stakeholder communication, confidence, and participation, streamline management strategy development, and improve management strategy application and durability. We present a translation of the typical adaptive management cycle concept to a spiral format, as well as a representation of adaptive management and participatory modelling proceeding together as interconnected spirals.
A conceptual representation showing the relationship between the adaptive management (AM) spiral (blue curve) and the participatory modelling (AM) spiral (green curve, modified after Parrott, 2017). The PM spiral is constrained by the trajectory of the AM spiral, but model development and management processes can proceed at independent rates. With each revolution of the spirals, the radii of both the AM and PM spirals increase, indicating the improved management effectiveness as learning occurs over time and models and management approaches grow more appropriate to the system under evaluation. This representation highlights that the modelling spiral does not occur at a single specific stage during the adaptive management spiral and instead that the two processes iterate at independent rates with constant potential for feedback within and between processes. Display omitted
•Adaptive management and participatory modelling have common methods and goals.•We propose linking the two processes as intertwined spirals.•This linkage may increase stakeholder engagement and management impact.
The purpose of this article is to investigate effective reformism: strategies that innovation networks deploy to create changes in their environment in order to establish a more conducive context for ...the realization and durable embedding of their innovation projects. Using a case study approach, effective reformism efforts are analyzed in a technological innovation trajectory related to the implementation of a new poultry husbandry system and an organizational innovation trajectory concerning new ways of co-operation among individual farms to establish economies of scale. The findings reinforce the idea, emerging from a complexity perspective on agricultural innovation systems, that interaction between innovation networks and their environment is only steerable to a limited extent. Nonetheless, innovation networks can enhance effective reformism by creating tangible visions that serve as vehicles to create understanding about the innovation and mobilize support for it, and by employing several kinds of boundary spanning individuals that are able to forge effective connections between innovation networks and their environment. Because innovation networks can only partially influence their institutional environment, and because unintended consequences of actions and random events influence the course of the innovation process, innovation network actors need to continuously re-interpret the contexts in which they move. This constant reflection by the innovating actors on their position vis-à-vis their environment needs to be supported by dedicated facilitators and monitoring and evaluation methods aimed at system learning. This implies that agricultural innovation policies should, instead of aiming to fully plan and control innovation, foster the emergence of such flexible support instruments that enable adaptive innovation management.
There is an increasing interest in introducing ecosystem services (ESs) and landscape ecological risk (LER) into environmental policies and governance. Yet, we know little about how to integrate LER ...into real decision-making and ESs management. Using the ESs valuation method and the models of InVEST and LER, this study analyzed the spatiotemporal changes of cropland food production, carbon storage, water yield, biodiversity index and LER of Bailongjiang watershed (BLJW), China in 1990, 2002 and 2014, and the relationship between them. We found clear spatial differences in both ESs and LER levels in BLJW during the study period. The cropland food production service kept rising, and the areas of high yield mainly distributed in the loessal regions of BLJW with intensive human population. The carbon storage, water yield and biodiversity index first decreased and then increased. The LER was higher in the areas along the valleys with low elevation and intensive human activities. The regional ecological zoning based on overlay analysis of ESs with LER is effective for providing interactive spatial knowledge for adaptive landscape management. Our results illustrate the integrative approach on linking landscape ecological risk with ecosystem services is a comprehensive and helpful methodology for both regional risk reduction and ecosystem services enhancement at landscape scale.
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•Watershed ecosystem services and landscape ecological risk were assessed and mapped.•Clear spatial changes in ecosystem services and landscape ecological risk were found.•A novel method proposed to link landscape ecological risk with ecosystem services.•Overlay zoning lays scientific foundation to implement adaptive landscape management.
Iterative near-term ecological forecasting Dietze, Michael C.; Fox, Andrew; Beck-Johnson, Lindsay M. ...
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences - PNAS,
02/2018, Letnik:
115, Številka:
7
Journal Article
Recenzirano
Odprti dostop
Two foundational questions about sustainability are “How are ecosystems and the services they provide going to change in the future?” and “How do human decisions affect these trajectories?” Answering ...these questions requires an ability to forecast ecological processes. Unfortunately, most ecological forecasts focus on centennial-scale climate responses, therefore neither meeting the needs of near-term (daily to decadal) environmental decision-making nor allowing comparison of specific, quantitative predictions to new observational data, one of the strongest tests of scientific theory. Near-term forecasts provide the opportunity to iteratively cycle between performing analyses and updating predictions in light of new evidence. This iterative process of gaining feedback, building experience, and correcting models and methods is critical for improving forecasts. Iterative, near-term forecasting will accelerate ecological research, make it more relevant to society, and inform sustainable decision-making under high uncertainty and adaptive management. Here, we identify the immediate scientific and societal needs, opportunities, and challenges for iterative near-term ecological forecasting. Over the past decade, data volume, variety, and accessibility have greatly increased, but challenges remain in interoperability, latency, and uncertainty quantification. Similarly, ecologists have made considerable advances in applying computational, informatic, and statistical methods, but opportunities exist for improving forecast-specific theory, methods, and cyberinfra-structure. Effective forecasting will also require changes in scientific training, culture, and institutions. The need to start forecasting is now; the time for making ecology more predictive is here, and learning by doing is the fastest route to drive the science forward.
Marine heatwaves are increasingly affecting marine ecosystems, with cascading impacts on coastal economies, communities, and food systems. Studies of heatwaves provide crucial insights into potential ...ecosystem shifts under future climate change and put fisheries social‐ecological systems through “stress tests” that expose both vulnerabilities and resilience. The 2014–16 Northeast Pacific heatwave was the strongest and longest marine heatwave on record and resulted in profound ecological changes that impacted fisheries, fisheries management, and human livelihoods. Here, we synthesize the impacts of the 2014–2016 marine heatwave on US and Canada West Coast fisheries and extract key lessons for preparing global fisheries science, management, and industries for the future. We set the stage with a brief review of the impacts of the heatwave on marine ecosystems and the first systematic analysis of the economic impacts of these changes on commercial and recreational fisheries. We then examine ten key case studies that provide instructive examples of the complex and surprising challenges that heatwaves pose to fisheries social‐ecological systems. These reveal important insights into improving the resilience of monitoring and management and increasing adaptive capacity to future stressors. Key recommendations include: (1) expanding monitoring to enhance mechanistic understanding, provide early warning signals, and improve predictions of impacts; (2) increasing the flexibility, adaptiveness, and inclusiveness of management where possible; (3) using simulation testing to help guide management decisions; and (4) enhancing the adaptive capacity of fishing communities by promoting engagement, flexibility, experimentation, and failsafes. These advancements are important as global fisheries prepare for a changing ocean.
The Natural Sediment Regime in Rivers WOHL, ELLEN; BLEDSOE, BRIAN P.; JACOBSON, ROBERT B. ...
Bioscience,
04/2015, Letnik:
65, Številka:
4
Journal Article
Recenzirano
Odprti dostop
Water and sediment inputs are fundamental drivers of river ecosystems, but river management tends to emphasize flow regime at the expense of sediment regime. In an effort to frame a more inclusive ...paradigm for river management, we discuss sediment inputs, transport, and storage within river systems; interactions among water, sediment, and valley context; and the need to broaden the natural flow regime concept. Explicitly incorporating sediment is challenging, because sediment is supplied, transported, and stored by nonlinear and episodic processes operating at different temporal and spatial scales than water and because sediment regimes have been highly altered by humans. Nevertheless, managing for a desired balance between sediment supply and transport capacity is not only tractable, given current geomorphic process knowledge, but also essential because of the importance of sediment regimes to aquatic and riparian ecosystems, the physical template of which depends on sediment-driven river structure and function.
Background
Climate change and human activities continue to drive a widespread decline in global mangrove coverage, undermining their capacity to provide ecosystem benefits. While global and local ...scale drivers of change on mangroves are widely acknowledged, the relative importance and the exposure of mangroves to climatic, geomorphological, and direct human threats vary spatially. Understanding the role and relative importance of the multiscale and multiple threats to mangroves and how these vary spatially is fundamental for formulating a spatially adaptive approach to their management and conservation.
Aim
Our study investigated the role of multiple threats on mangroves and the relative exposure.
Location
Western Indian Ocean (WIO) region.
Time period
Recent past (2002–2019 and future (2050–2060).
Major taxa studied
Mangrove.
Methods
Using satellite‐derived indicators of mangrove condition aggregated over 19 years (2002 to 2019) and 14 proxies of climate, human activity, and geomorphology, we applied machine learning methods to determine the role and relative importance of the change drivers. Using outputs from this deductive statistical process, we applied inductive methods to map mangrove exposure spatially.
Results
Model results highlight the importance of catchment erosion, human pressure, sea level, and macroclimate as the main drivers of the present‐day ecological condition of mangroves in the WIO. Normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) was more sensitive to the identified drivers than the vegetation condition index (VCI), with the relative importance of variables varying across the two vegetation indicators.
Main conclusions
In anticipation of a stronger manifestation of climate change impacts, the resilience of mangroves in the WIO could be improved through adaptive management over time and space. Testing the efficacy of the essential biodiversity variables (EBV) is critical for understanding the mechanisms of ecosystem change and managing biodiversity change.
Maintaining the recovery of the formerly federally endangered Kirtland’s warbler (Setophaga kirtlandii) requires continual creation of early-successional jack pine (Pinus banksiana) habitat every ...year, which, in turn, requires a steady supply of commercial timber sales. However, dedicated Kirtland’s warbler habitat plantations are established at high stem densities (ca. 3600 trees ha−1) which can delay the production of marketable timber compared to a conventional forestry planting density (ca. 1900 trees ha−1). We used a retrospective approach to assess the impacts of tree density on Kirtland’s warbler occupancy, and an experimental approach to understand benefits and costs of pre-commercial thinning of Kirtland’s warbler habitat plantations. We observed an unexpected negative relationship between realized plantation density and maximum occupancy by Kirtland’s warbler singing males. We found that thinning of high-density jack pine planted for Kirtland’s warbler habitat resulted in increased diameter growth, increased live crown ratio, and a trend towards increased intrinsic water-use efficiency in the older age classes. These findings provide strong support for the importance of using adaptive management approaches to more rigorously evaluate the impacts of plantation spacing on Kirtland’s warbler productivity. Although increases in volume growth and timber prices following thinning are unlikely to ever recoup the costs of implementation, we argue that thinning could still be an important tool to accelerate the rate at which these stands attain marketability for the timber sales that are necessary to create a continuous supply of Kirtland’s warbler breeding habitat.
•Kirtland’s warbler occupancy did not increase with increasing stem density.•Kirtland’s warbler occupancy was influenced by stand age and habitat connectivity.•Plantations that had aged out of breeding habitat showed no evidence of stagnation.•Financial returns are unlikely to ever recoup the costs of pre-commercial thinning.
The world is currently facing uncertainty caused by environmental, social, and economic changes and by political shocks. Fostering social-ecological resilience by enhancing forests’ ability to ...provide a range of ecosystem services, including carbon sequestration, habitat provision, and sustainable livelihoods, is key to addressing such uncertainty. However, policy makers and managers currently lack a clear understanding of how to operationalise the shaping of resilience through the combined challenges of climate change, the biodiversity crisis, and changes in societal demand. Based on a scientific literature review, we identified a set of actions related to ecosystem services, biodiversity conservation, and disturbance and pressure impacts that forest managers and policy makers should attend to enhance the resilience of European forest systems. We conclude that the resilience shaping of forests should (1) adopt an operational approach, which is currently lacking, (2) identify and address existing and future trade-offs while reinforcing win–wins and (3) attend to local particularities through an adaptive management approach.
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