The climate is changing, and the Eastern Europe and Central Asia (ECA) region is vulnerable to the consequences. Many of the region's countries are facing warmer temperatures, a changing hydrology, ...and more extremes, droughts, floods, heat waves, windstorms, and forest fires. This book presents an overview of what adaptation to climate change might mean for Eastern Europe and Central Asia. It starts with a discussion of emerging best-practice adaptation planning around the world and a review of the latest climate projections. It then discusses possible actions to improve resilience organized around impacts on health, natural resources (water, biodiversity, and the coastal environment), the 'unbuilt' environment (agriculture and forestry), and the built environment (infrastructure and housing). The last chapter concludes with a discussion of two areas in great need of strengthening given the changing climate: disaster preparedness and hydro- meteorological services. This book has four key messages: a) contrary to popular perception, Eastern Europe and Central Asia face significant threats from climate change, with a number of the most serious risks already in evidence; b) vulnerability over the next 10 to 20 years is likely to be dominated by socioeconomic factors and legacy issues; c) even countries and sectors that stand to benefit from climate change are poorly positioned to do so; and d) the next decade offers a window of opportunity for ECA countries to make their development more resilient to climate change while reaping numerous co-benefits.
Adapting to climate change is not a new phenomenon for the Arab world. For thousands of years, the people in Arab countries have coped with the challenges of climate variability by adapting their ...survival strategies to changes in rainfall and temperature. Their experience has contributed significantly to the global knowledge on climate change and adaptation. But over the next century global climatic variability is predicted to increase, and Arab countries may well experience unprecedented extremes in climate. Temperatures may reach new highs, and in most places there may be a risk of less rainfall. Under these circumstances, Arab countries and their citizens will once again need to draw on their long experience of adapting to the environment to address the new challenges posed by climate change. This report prepared through a consultative process with Government and other stakeholders in the Arab world assesses the potential effects of climate change on the Arab region and outlines possible approaches and measures to prepare for its consequences. It offers ideas and suggestions for Arab policy makers as to what mitigating actions may be needed in rural and urban settings to safeguard key areas such as health, water, agriculture, and tourism. The report also analyzes the differing impacts of climate change, with special attention paid to gender, as a means of tailoring strategies to address specific vulnerabilities. The socioeconomic impact of climate change will likely vary from country to country, reflecting a country's coping capacity and its level of development. Countries that are wealthier and more economically diverse are generally expected to be more resilient. The report suggests that countries and households will need to diversify their production and income generation, integrate adaptation into all policy making and activities, and ensure a sustained national commitment to address the social, economic, and environmental consequences of climate variability. With these coordinated efforts, the Arab world can, as it has for centuries, successfully adapt and adjust to the challenges of a changing climate.
This book analyzes the risks to Nigeria's development prospects that climate change poses to agriculture, livestock, and water management. These sectors were chosen because they are central to ...achieving the growth, livelihood, and environmental objectives of Vision 20: 2020; and because they are already vulnerable to current climate variability. Since other sectors might also be affected, the findings of this research provide lower-bound estimates of overall climate change impacts. Agriculture accounts for about 40 percent of Nigeria's Gross Domestic product (GDP) and employs 70 percent of its people. Because virtually all production is rain-fed, agriculture is highly vulnerable to weather swings. It alerts us that increases in temperature, coupled with changes in precipitation patterns and hydrological regimes, can only exacerbate existing vulnerabilities. The book proposes 10 practical short-term priority actions, as well as complementary longer-term initiatives, that could help to mitigate the threat to vision 20: 2020 that climate change poses. Nigeria's vision can become a reality if the country moves promptly to become more climate-resilient. Climate variability is also undermining Nigeria's efforts to achieve energy security. Though dominated by thermal power, the country's energy mix is complemented by hydropower, which accounts for one-third of grid supply. Because dams are poorly maintained, current variability in rainfall results in power outages that affect both Nigeria's energy security and its growth potential. In particular, climate models converge in projecting that by mid-century water flows will increase for almost half the country, decrease in 10 percent of the country, and be uncertain over one-third of Nigeria's surface. The overall feasibility of Nigeria's hydropower potential is not in question. On grounds of energy diversification and low carbon co-benefits, exploiting the entire 12 gigawatts (GW) of hydropower potential should be considered. Nigeria has a number of actions and policy choices it might consider for building up its ability to achieve climate-resilient development.
Climate change is beginning to have effects on climate, weather and resource availability in ways that need to be anticipated when planning for the future. In particular, changes in rainfall patterns ...and temperature may impact the intensity or schedule of water availability. Also the retreat of tropical glaciers, the drying of unique Andean wetland ecosystems, as well as increased weather variability and weather extremes will affect water regulation. These changes have the potential to impact the energy and other sectors, such as agriculture, and could have broader economic effects.Anticipating the impacts of climate change is a new frontier. There are few examples of predictions of the impact of climate change on resource availability and even fewer examples of the applications of such predictions to planning for sustainable economic development. However, having access to an effective methodology would allow planners and policy makers to better plan for adaptation measures to address the consequences of climate change on the power and water sectors.This report presents a summary of the efforts to develop methodological tools for the assessment of climate impacts on surface hydrology in the Peruvian Andes. It is targeted to decision makers in Peru and in other countries to give them guidance on how to choose available and suitable tools and make an assessment of climate impacts on water regulation.
Will African Agriculture Survive Climate Change? Kurukulasuriya, Pradeep; Mendelsohn, Robert; Hassan, Rashid ...
The World Bank economic review,
01/2006, Letnik:
20, Številka:
3
Journal Article
Recenzirano
Odprti dostop
Measurement of the likely magnitude of the economic impact of climate change on African agriculture has been a challenge. Using data from a survey of more than 9,000 farmers across 11 African ...countries, a cross-sectional approach estimates how farm net revenues are affected by climate change compared with current mean temperature. Revenues fall with warming for dryland crops (temperature elasticity of −1.9) and livestock (−5.4), whereas revenues rise for irrigated crops (elasticity of 0.5), which are located in relatively cool parts of Africa and are buffered by irrigation from the effects of warming. At first, warming has little net aggregate effect as the gains for irrigated crops offset the losses for dryland crops and livestock. Warming, however, will likely reduce dryland farm income immedia-tely. The final effects will also depend on changes in precipitation, because revenues from all farm types increase with precipitation. Because irrigated farms are less sensitive to climate, where water is available, irrigation is a practical adaptation to climate change in Africa.
This Economics of Climate Change in the Arab World is presents detailed case studies on the impacts of climate change in the Syrian Arab Republic, Tunisia, and the Republic of Yemen that were ...summarized. The Arab region is already being impacted by climate change through more frequent cyclones, floods, and prolonged droughts. Thousands of rural producers have seen their crops and herds devastated by extreme conditions, and have been forced to abandon their traditional way of life and migrate to crowded urban areas. Those who stay behind in rural areas struggle to cope with shortages of food and water. Climate change affects countries' economies and households through a variety of channels. Rising temperatures and changes in rainfall patterns affect agricultural yields of both rainfed and irrigated crops, and thus global and local food markets. Adaptation is a process that will take place over decades as new information makes policy makers reevaluate their climate vulnerabilities. Still, by seizing the opportunity to act now and act together, the Arab region can not only meet the immense challenges of climate change but advance the development of its entire people.
The importance of weather, climate, and water1 information is rising because of the need to serve more elaborate societal needs, minimize growing economic losses, and help countries adapt to climate ...change. Weather, climate, and water affect societies and economies through extreme events, such as tropical cyclones, floods, high winds, storm surges, and prolonged droughts, and through high-impact weather and climate events that affect demand for electricity and production capacity, planting and harvesting dates, management of construction, transportation networks and inventories, and human health. The key players are the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs), which are the backbone of the global weather and climate enterprise. By international agreement under the auspices of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), they are the government's authoritative source of weather, climate, and water information, providing timely input to emergency managers, national and local administrations, the public, and critical economic sectors. The report underscores the urgent need to strengthen NMHSs, especially those in developing countries, and provides cost-benefit estimates of the return that countries can hope to achieve. It also offers a recommended approach that has been tested and implemented in Europe, in Central and South Asia, and countries in other regions. The NMHSs make a significant contribution to safety, security, and economic well-being by observing, forecasting, and warning of pending weather, climate, and water threats.
While the energy sector is a primary target of efforts to arrest and reverse the growth of greenhouse gas emissions and lower the carbon footprint of development, it is also expected to be ...increasingly affected by unavoidable climate consequences from the damage already induced in the biosphere. Energy services and resources, as well as seasonal demand, will be increasingly affected by changing trends, increasing variability, greater extremes and large inter-annual variations in climate parameters in some regions. All evidence suggests that adaptation is not an optional add-on but an essential reckoning on par with other business risks. Existing energy infrastructure, new infrastructure and future planning need to consider emerging climate conditions and impacts on design, construction, operation, and maintenance. Integrated risk-based planning processes will be critical to address the climate change impacts and harmonize actions within and across sectors. Also, awareness, knowledge, and capacity impede mainstreaming of climate adaptation into the energy sector. However, the formal knowledge base is still nascent?information needs are complex and to a certain extent regionally and sector specific. This report provides an up-to-date compendium of what is known about weather variability and projected climate trends and their impacts on energy service provision and demand. It discusses emerging practices and tools for managing these impacts and integrating climate considerations into planning processes and operational practices in an environment of uncertainty. It focuses on energy sector adaptation, rather than mitigation which is not discussed in this report. This report draws largely on available scientific and peer-reviewed literature in the public domain and takes the perspective of the developing world to the extent possible.
The increasing resilience to climate change in the agricultural sector report presents local-level priorities, informed by stakeholder input, to build agricultural resilience in both countries. The ...objectives of this study were threefold: (1) to improve the understanding of climate change projections and impacts on rural communities and livelihoods in selected regions of Jordan and Lebanon, specifically the Jordan River Valley and Lebanon's Bekaa Valley; (2) to engage local communities, farmers, local experts, and local and national government representatives in a participatory fashion in helping craft agricultural adaptation options to climate change; and (3) to develop local and regional climate change action plans that formulate recommendations for investment strategies and strategic interventions in local agricultural systems. The climate challenges confronting development in the Middle East are particularly stark. This region, and in particular its rural people, face what might be called a `triple threat` from climate change. First, the Middle East is already one of the driest and most water-scarce regions of the world (World Bank 2011) and faces severe challenges posed by high temperatures and limited water supplies. This report to assist Jordan and Lebanon in understanding the specific challenges and opportunities posed by climate change in the agricultural sector.
Changes in climate and their impact on agricultural systems and rural economies are already evident throughout Europe and Central Asia (ECA). Adaptation measures now in use in Moldova, largely ...piecemeal efforts, will be insufficient to prevent impacts on agricultural production over the coming decades. There is growing interest at country and development partner levels to have a better understanding of the exposure, sensitivities, and impacts of climate change at farm level, and to develop and prioritize adaptation measures to mitigate the adverse consequences. The approach of this volume is predicated on strong country ownership and participation, and is defined by its emphasis on 'win-win' or 'no regrets' solutions to the multiple challenges posed by climate change for the farmers of Eastern Europe and Central Asia. The solutions are measures that increase resilience to future climate change, boost current productivity despite the greater climate variability already occurring, and limit greenhouse gas emissions-also known as 'climate-smart agriculture.' Specifically, this report provides a menu of climate change adaptation options for the agriculture and water resources sectors, along with specific recommendations that are tailored to three distinct Agro-Ecological Zones (AEZs) within Moldova. This menu reflects the results of three inter-related activities, conducted jointly by the team and local partners: 1) quantitative economic modeling of baseline conditions and the effects of climate change and an array of adaptation options; 2) qualitative analysis conducted by the expert team of agronomists, crop modelers, and water resources experts; and 3) input from a series of participatory workshops for national decision makers and farmers in each of the AEZs. This report provides a summary of the methods, data, results, and adaptation options for each of these activities.
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