Multi-criteria analysis applied to aircraft selection by Brazilian Navy Maêda, Sérgio Mitihiro do Nascimento; Costa, Igor Pinheiro de Araújo; Castro Junior, Marcos Alexandre Pinto de ...
Produção : uma publicação da Associação Brasileira de Engenharia de Produção,
2021, Letnik:
31
Journal Article
Recenzirano
Odprti dostop
Abstract Paper aims This paper aims to select the best helicopter to be acquired by the Brazilian Navy (BN), enabling greater logistical and combat capacity in marine operations. For this purpose, we ...applied the AHP-TOPSIS-2N, a hybrid multicriteria method composed by the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) and two normalization procedures (2N). Originality In this paper, a real military case study is conducted to support the decision-making process in BN, contributing to the better performance of the Brazilian Armed Forces. The application of the methodology resulted in two lists of ordering and prioritization of helicopters, providing transparency and simplicity to the decision-making process. Research method We analyzed six aircraft models, considering attack helicopters used by the Armed Forces of developed countries, in the light of their operational and tactical criteria. The selected helicopter would be employed in the fire support and reconnaissance, required by the Brazilian Marine Corps Amphibious Operations. Main findings After the application of the method, the AH-64E APACHE was chosen as the most suitable helicopter to be acquired by the Brazilian Navy. Implications for theory and practice This study brings valuable contribution to academia and society, since it represents the application of a Multi-criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) method in the state of the art to contribute to the solution of a real problem of the BN. The methodology presented in this paper can notably be used to solve real problems of the most varied types – tactical, operational and strategic – thus being a very useful method for decision-making.
Background
Central nervous system (CNS) infections in cattle are a major cause of economic loss and mortality. Machine learning (ML) techniques are gaining widespread application in solving ...predictive tasks in both human and veterinary medicine.
Objectives
Our primary aim was to develop and compare ML models that could predict the likelihood of a CNS disorder of infectious or inflammatory origin in neurologically‐impaired cattle. Our secondary aim was to create a user‐friendly web application based on the ML model for the diagnosis of infection and inflammation of the CNS.
Animals
Ninety‐eight cattle with CNS infection and 86 with CNS disorders of other origin.
Methods
Retrospective observational study. Six different ML methods (logistic regression LR; support vector machine SVM; random forest RF; multilayer perceptron MLP; K‐nearest neighbors KNN; gradient boosting GB) were compared for their ability to predict whether an infectious or inflammatory disease was present based on demographics, neurological examination findings, and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) analysis.
Results
All 6 methods had high prediction accuracy (≥80%). The accuracy of the LR model was significantly higher (0.843 ± 0.005; receiver operating characteristic ROC curve 0.907±0.005) than the other models and was selected for implementation in a web application.
Conclusion and Clinical Importance
Our findings support the use of ML algorithms as promising tools for veterinarians to improve diagnosis. The open‐access web application may aid clinicians in achieving correct diagnosis of infectious and inflammatory neurological disorders in livestock, with the added benefit of promoting appropriate use of antimicrobials.
Set pair analysis (SPA) is an updated theory for dealing with the uncertainty, which overlaps with the other existing theories such as vague, fuzzy, intuitionistic fuzzy set (IFS). Keeping the ...advantages of it, in this paper, we propose some novel similarity measures to measure the relative strength of the different intuitionistic fuzzy sets (IFSs) after pointing out the weakness of the existing measures. For it, a connection number, the main component of SPA theory is formulated in the form of the degrees of identity, discrepancy, and contrary. Then, based on it some new similarity and weighted similarity measures between the connection number sets are defined. A comparative analysis of the proposed and existing measures are formulated in terms of the counter-intuitive cases for showing the validity of it. Finally, an illustrative example is provided to demonstrate it.
Ecosystem-based management requires an assessment of the cumulative effects of human pressures and environmental change. The operationalization and integration of cumulative effects assessments (CEA) ...into decision-making processes often lacks a comprehensive and transparent framework. A risk-based CEA framework that divides a CEA in risk identification, risk analysis and risk evaluation, could structure such complex analyses and facilitate the establishment of direct science-policy links. Here, we examine carefully the operationalization of such a risk-based CEA framework with the help of eleven contrasting case studies located in Europe, French Polynesia, and Canada. We show that the CEA framework used at local, sub-regional, and regional scales allowed for a consistent, coherent, and transparent comparison of complex assessments. From our analysis, we pinpoint four emerging issues that, if accurately addressed, can improve the take up of CEA outcomes by management: 1) framing of the CEA context and defining risk criteria; 2) describing the roles of scientists and decision-makers; 3) reducing and structuring complexity; and 4) communicating uncertainty. Moreover, with a set of customized tools we describe and analyze for each case study the nature and location of uncertainty as well as trade-offs regarding available knowledge and data used for the CEA. Ultimately, these tools aid decision-makers to recognize potential caveats and repercussions of management decisions. One key recommendation is to differentiate CEA processes and their context in relation to governance advice, marine spatial planning or regulatory advice. We conclude that future research needs to evaluate how effective management measures are in reducing the risk of cumulative effects. Changing governance structures takes time and is often difficult, but we postulate that well-framed and structured CEA can function as a strategic tool to integrate ecosystem considerations across multiple sectorial policies.
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•Eleven contrasting case studies reveal key issues for the operationalization of a risk-based CEA framework•General need to better define CEA context, risk criteria and the roles of scientists, managers and stakeholders•Customized tools for the communication of uncertainty and trade-offs of knowledge and data are demonstrated•Need to differentiate CEA by purpose informing either governance advice, marine spatial planning or regulatory processes•Well-framed CEA as a strategic tool to integrate ecosystem considerations across sectors
•Social interaction activities embedded in social commerce sites influence the intention to purchase.•Positive valence WOM and WOM content significantly affect consumers’ intention to buy a ...product.•Intention to purchase driven by social interaction facilitates the likelihood of actual buying and sharing information with peers.•Observing and learning other consumers’ behaviors increases the intention to purchase.
Social commerce mediated by social media and social network platforms has led to the development of new business models in e-commerce and digitized the consumer decision journey. Social interaction is considered as a prerequisite for successful social commerce since consumers now expect an interactive and social experience while making purchase decisions. Drawing on word of mouth (WOM) and observational learning theories, we conceptualize social interactions in social commerce environments into two forms: WOM communication and observing other consumers’ purchases, and examine their impact on consumer purchase intention and actual purchase behavior. Analyzing primary data (n=217) collected from surveyed active consumers within social commerce sites at two stages (pre-purchase and post-purchase), we found that positive and negative valence WOM, WOM content, and observing other consumers’ purchases significantly affect consumers’ intention to buy a product, thereby increasing the likelihood of actual buying and sharing product information with others on social commerce sites.
Marketing experts are tasked with making important decisions that influence firms' performance. Some decision tasks are decomposable and can be broken down into smaller parts (e.g., pricing new ...products). Others are non‐decomposable and are challenging to break down (e.g., selecting creative work for advertising campaigns). The literature remains divided on whether expertise aids decision‐makers in addressing these different decision tasks, as well as how different decision‐making processes (critical analysis, intuition, introspection) improve decision‐makers' performance when they face these tasks. Using experiments with comparative samples of senior marketing managers (experts) and general public participants (non‐experts), we test whether expertise provides advantages when making decisions. Our results suggest that experts perform better than the general public with decomposable decision tasks, though not with non‐decomposable decision tasks. Furthermore, decision‐makers who rely on critical analysis perform better compared to intuition when addressing decomposable decision tasks, but the decision process is less important with non‐decomposable decision tasks. These findings provide insight into the conceptual boundaries of marketing professionals' expertise. Managers could apply these insights to potentially save resources (e.g., time, finances) by delegating decisions to more junior staff or even by leveraging external counsel through crowdsourcing.
•Explores information sharing from a strategic view point.•Basic question is share or not share, not how to distribute savings after sharing.•Based on valuing different aspects of information that ...might be shared.•Game theory and Pareto optimal approaches applied to simple examples.
There are well-documented examples of successful, mutually beneficial collaborations in supply chains; however, the failure rate of collaborations that are initiated is surprisingly high. This research focuses on one cornerstone of a successful collaboration, information sharing. The idea is to help companies who are considering a collaborative opportunity to evaluate the value of the information that would be shared so efforts are only expended on potential collaborations that have an acceptable reward for the risk. This proposed methodology is an optimality-based approach that uses game theory and considers information sharing in both the competition-cooperation and coopetition environments. Value is first assigned to information along several dimensions that allows payoff matrices to be constructed. Using these, Nash equilibrium and Pareto optimality are used to provide insights for decision makers.
This paper empirically identifies the attitude‐behaviour gap phenomenon, which has been witnessed frequently in environmentally friendly products, by suggesting a general and flexible Bayesian ...multivariate model and applying it to survey data. Since cognitive, affective and conative stages, which are closely related to the attitude‐behaviour gap, are successive stages in the consumer decision‐making process, these must be considered simultaneously in empirical analysis. For this reason, a recursive multivariate probit model is proposed. According to the empirical analysis, the affective stage (interest and preference) does not lead to the conative stage (intention to use and intention to purchase) in an analysis of eco‐friendly detergent. By contrast, in an electric vehicle analysis, the affective stage partially influences the conative stage through the relationship between preference and usage intention, and through the relationship between interest and purchase intention. It was also found that high compatibility and low complexity must be emphasized in eco‐friendly detergent, and that high relative advantage and compatibility must be emphasized for an electric vehicle in order to bridge the attitude‐behaviour gap successfully.
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