•The interest–growth difference (r-g) is a key factor of public debt sustainability.•We study the determinants of r-g in a panel of 17 OECD countries since 1981.•Main predictors: technical progress, ...employment growth, life expectancy and inequality.•Baseline expectation: r-g remains negative in European countries in the next two decades, but not in the US.•Fiscal policy implication: the debt capacity of governments is substantially higher than in the 1980s or 1990s.
The difference between the implicit nominal interest rate and the growth rate of nominal GDP is a key determinant of the dynamics and the sustainability of public debt. This paper studies the determinants of r-g in a panel of 17 OECD countries since the early 1980s. Whereas the focus of existing empirical studies is mainly on fiscal, monetary and financial factors behind the interest–growth difference, our approach and contribution are to highlight in particular the role of real long-run determinants, such as technical progress, employment growth, demographic change, and income inequality. This allows us to derive empirically based projections for r-g beyond the next five or ten years. Our baseline expectation is that r-g will stay below zero for the next two decades in most European countries that we study. An important policy implication is that the debt-carrying capacity of governments is substantially higher now than in the 1980s or 1990s. For the United States, however, our baseline projection of r-g is positive.
•Ninety percent of Africa’s surplus arable land is concentrated in a few countries.•Africa’s rural populations are highly clustered in relatively densely populated areas.•Median farm size is ...generally declining and land ownership concentration is rising.•Unsustainable forms of land intensification apparent in high-density farming areas.•Land access will be important for absorbing youth into gainful employment.
Evidence assembled in this special issue of Food Policy shows that rising rural population densities in parts of Africa are profoundly affecting farming systems and the region’s economies in ways that are underappreciated in current discourse on African development issues. This study synthesizes how people, markets and governments are responding to rising land pressures in Africa, drawing on key findings from the various contributions in this special issue. The papers herein revisit the issue of Boserupian agricultural intensification as an important response to land constraints, but they also go further than Boserup and her followers to explore broader responses to land constraints, including non-farm diversification, migration, and reduced fertility rates. Agricultural and rural development strategies in the region will need to more fully anticipate the implications of Africa’s rapidly changing land and demographic situation, and the immense challenges that mounting land pressures pose in the context of current evidence of unsustainable agricultural intensification, a rapidly rising labor force associated with the region’s current demographic conditions, and limited nonfarm job creation. These challenges are manageable but will require explicit policy actions to address the unique development challenges in densely populated rural areas.
This article explores the impact that Professor Stafford Hood had on the development of culturally responsive evaluation and assessment (CRE/A) in Ireland. Starting with a brief outline of the ...demographic and cultural changes that have happened in Ireland since the mid‐1990s, the article discusses the initial encounters with Professor Hood and his introduction of the theories, practice and praxis of CRE/A to a group of Irish scholars. This engagement was formalized by the establishment of the CREA‐Dublin, hosted in Dublin City University. The article examines how CREA‐Dublin has used the culturally responsive lens to critique evaluation, assessment, and quality assurance practices within Ireland and across the European Union (EU). Outlining the impact of several major EU funded projects as well as locally initiated research, the article concludes by highlighting the centrality of Professor Hood as a scholar and an individual to the transformation of research and practice in the fields of evaluation and assessment on the island of Ireland and beyond.
Abstract
Nearly 4.6 million direct care workers—including personal care aides, home health aides, and nursing assistants—provide daily support to older adults and people with disabilities across a ...range of settings in the United States, predominantly in long-term care (LTC). Even as the population grows older and drives up demand for LTC, the sector continues its decades-long struggle to fill direct care positions and stabilize this essential workforce. Recent events and emerging trends have converged, however, to produce new opportunities to address this longstanding workforce crisis, including the unprecedented attention generated by the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic and the systemic shifts to managed care and value-based payment in LTC. This Forum article outlines the pressing direct care workforce challenges in LTC before describing these potential levers of change, emphasizing the importance of not just expanding the workforce but also maximizing direct care workers’ contributions to the delivery of high-quality services for a growing and evolving population of LTC consumers.
Languages differ widely in the ways they encode time. I test the hypothesis that the languages that grammatically associate the future and the present, foster future-oriented behavior. This ...prediction arises naturally when well-documented effects of language structure are merged with models of intertemporal choice. Empirically, I find that speakers of such languages: save more, retire with more wealth, smoke less, practice safer sex, and are less obese. This holds both across countries and within countries when comparing demographically similar native households. The evidence does not support the most obvious forms of common causation. I discuss implications for theories of intertemporal choice.
Energy consumption in the residential sector offers an important opportunity for conserving resources. However, much of the current debate regarding energy efficiency in the housing market focuses on ...the physical and technical determinants of energy consumption, neglecting the role of the economic behavior of resident households. In this paper, we analyze the extent to which the use of gas and electricity is determined by the technical specifications of the dwelling as compared to the demographic characteristics of the residents. Our analysis is based on a sample of more than 300,000 Dutch homes and their occupants. The results indicate that residential gas consumption is determined principally by structural dwelling characteristics, such as the vintage, building type, and characteristics of the dwelling, while electricity consumption varies more directly with household composition, in particular income and family composition. Combining these results with projections on future economic and demographic trends, we find that, even absent price increases for residential energy, the aging of the population and their increasing wealth will roughly offset improvements in the energy efficiency of the building stock resulting from policy interventions and natural revitalization.
► The behavioral component is frequently ignored in analyses of household energy use. ► We examine gas and electricity consumption for more than 300,000 households. ► Household composition is paramount for residential electricity demand. ► Gas consumption in dwellings constructed before 1980 is about 50 percent higher. ► The aging of the population will affect significantly the future demand for energy.
This study analyses the effect of Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 on the future of Ukraine's population. We conduct a series of population projections with different assumptions on the ...proportion of refugees that may return to Ukraine. Our projections show that if past demographic trends continue, Ukraine's population is projected to decline by one‐sixth over the next two decades and become older. These trends are largely driven by past and current demographic developments: continued very low fertility and large‐scale emigration at the turn of the century. With war casualties and a large portion of the Ukrainian population seeking safety abroad from the conflict, the country's population is projected to decline by one‐third. The decline would be even larger among the working‐age population and children. Russia's invasion has not only led to immense human and economic costs in Ukraine in the present but also carries long‐term demographic repercussions.
Background:
Previous studies showed increasing number of children with a life-limiting or life-threatening condition who may benefit from input from pediatric palliative care services.
Aim:
To ...estimate the current prevalence of children with a life-limiting condition and to model future prevalence of this population.
Design:
Observational study using national inpatient hospital data. A population-based approach utilizing ethnic specific population projections was used to estimate future prevalence.
Setting/participants:
All children aged 0–19 years with a life-limiting condition diagnostic code recorded in Hospital Episodes Statistics data in England from 2000/01 to 2017/18.
Results:
Data on 4,543,386 hospital episodes for 359,634 individuals were included. The prevalence of children with a life-limiting condition rose from 26.7 per 10,000 (95%CI 26.5–27.0) in 2001/02 to 66.4 per 10,000 (95% CI: 66.0–66.8) in 2017/18. Using a more restricted definition of a life-limiting condition reduced the prevalence from 66.4 to 61.1 per 10,000 (95%CI 60.7–61.5) in 2017/18. Highest prevalence was in the under 1-year age group at 226.5 per 10,000 and children with a congenital abnormality had the highest prevalence (27.2 per 10,000 (95%CI: 26.9–27.5)).
The prevalence was highest among the most deprived group and in children of Pakistani origin.
Predicted future prevalence of life-limiting conditions ranged from 67.0 (95%CI 67.7–66.3) to 84.22 (95%CI 78.66–90.17) per 10,000 by 2030.
Conclusions:
The prevalence of children with a life-limiting or life-threatening condition in England has risen over the last 17 years and is predicted to increase. Future data collections must include the data required to assess the complex health and social care needs of these children.
The report appraises the impact of economic development, or lack thereof, on the welfare of the Colombian population, and the poor in particular, over the last two decades, and, identifies priority ...areas for public policy action, vis-e-vis the most vulnerable groups. The welfare assessment covers three key areas - income, access to social services, and personal security, while it also compares welfare indicators between urban, and rural areas, and across other regional partitions. Questions are raised on the depths of poverty, and, on the Government's responsiveness to the incidence of poverty. Findings suggest that despite substantial long-term progress, a recent setback fostered an extreme urban poverty, and, although during the period social indicators reflect positive social development trends, homicide and domestic violence for the poor, and property crime for the non-poor have escalated to unprecedented rates, where the burden of crime is disproportionately borne by poor women. This violence disrupts the market economy, imposing a considerable psychological cost on those who are not directly victimized as well. Government actions nonetheless, show huge public expenditure efforts in social sectors, but with mixed results; therefore, the study addresses the imperative need for high economic growth to reverse poverty, through social programs prioritizing on childcare, health, and basic infrastructure. Likewise, an environment of increasing economic insecurity calls for valuable policy instruments, namely, safety-net programs, to enhance social protection.
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