The region's prospects continue to be promising, but global developments pose increased risks to the outlook. Growth in sub-Saharan Africa should again average about 6½ percent in 2008 with oil ...exporters leading the way; meanwhile, growth in oil importers is expected to taper off, though only modestly. With food and energy prices still rising, inflation is projected to average about 8½ percent this year for countries in the region, setting aside Zimbabwe. Risks in 2008 are tilted to the downside, but the region is better placed today to withstand a worsening of the global environment.
The Annual Report on Exchange Arrangements and Exchange Restrictions (AREAER) has been published by the IMF since 1950. It is a unique publication based on a database maintained by the IMF that ...tracks exchange arrangements and foreign exchange systems for all member countries on an annual basis and also provides historical information on these. The introduction to the volume provides a summary of recent global trends and developments in the areas covered by the publication. Individual country chapters report exchange measures in place, the structure and setting of the exchange rate, arrangements for payments and receipts, procedures for resident and nonresident accounts, mechanisms for import and export payments and receipts, controls on capital transactions, and provisions specific to the financial sector. A separate section in each chapter lists changes made during 2005 and the first part of 2006. The AREAER draws on information made available to the IMF from a number of sources, including during official staff visits to member countries, and has been prepared in close consultation with national authorities. The information is presented in a tabular format.
A key issue in creating a new currency union is setting the rates to convert national currencies into the new union currency. Planned unions in the Gulf region and Africa are seeking methods to set ...the conversion rates when their new currencies are created. We propose a forward-looking econometric methodology to determine conversion rates by calculating the degree of misalignment in the real exchange rate, and apply it to the GCC currency union. For each GCC currency, we identify the year at which the economy is the closest to its internal and external equilibrium, and then estimate the degree of misalignment in the bilateral real exchange rate vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar based on WEO forecasts until 2013. Application of the methodology to other regions is also considered.
This study examines the relationship between the foreign exchange regime and macroeconomic performance in Eastern Africa. The study focuses on seven countries, five of which decisively liberalized ...their foreign exchange regimes. The study assesses the relationship between (i) growth and various determinants, including the exchange regime, the real exchange rate, and current account liberalization; and (ii) inflation and various determinants, including lagged inflation, the nominal exchange rate, the exchange regime, and liberalization. We find that in our sample, for the determinants of growth, investment and the real exchange rate are significant determinants but not the exchange regime or liberalization; and for inflation, the lagged inflation rate, nominal exchange rate, and the de facto regime are significant. Exchange rate pass-through is limited.
