The various challenges facing the United States that have led to the current global financial crisis are discussed. The US economy is effectively caught in a debt trap and is impelled to attract a ...net inflow of capital in order to finance its ever burgeoning and cumulative current account deficits.
Currency Competition is a major study of international currencies which focuses on the role of the Euro, and provides accessible answers to the key questions facing policy-makers, business people and ...scholars. Philipp Hartmann is a leading economist whose work has been featured in publications including The Wall Street Journal.
The paper analyzes foreign exchange market volatility in four Central European EU accession countries in 2001–2003. By using a Markov regime-switching model, it identifies two regimes representing ...high- and low-volatility periods. The estimation results show not only that volatilities are different between the two regimes, but also that some of the cross-correlations differ. Notably, cross-correlations increase substantially for two pairs of currencies (the Hungarian forint–Polish zloty and the Czech koruna–Slovak koruna) in the high-volatility period. The paper concludes by discussing the policy implications of these findings.
From 2016 into 2017 global governments and central banks, through financial engineering, met with success in extending the business cycle or maintaining economic momentum, but met with very limited ...success in overcoming chronic slow global growth, low to negative interest rates globally, and stubbornly low inflation rates. The problem for grain prices is that they are at decade low prices in real dollars, and with the decline of markets globally this past week, even rice, grains and soft commodities saw momentum and/or price weakness. A corrective period underway; this is a market that likely needs to redefine its near term bottom and define a 2018 trading range, given both global growth optimism and uncertainties; one still has to be concerned more about the upside than the downside in prices (Charts 29 to 31). $CRB Commodity Index: A dangerous potential retest of support is now underway; extreme caution is advised near term, an additional 10 percent global equity correction over the next 3 to 6 weeks would likely be very bearish for this index (Charts 26 and 28). A complex and volatile market focused on global uncertainties like Saudi Arabian and Iranian building friction; other Middle East challenges, North Korea, market structure, geopolitical considerations and building possibilities of a Venezuelan civil war are just some additional considerations, and all deserve heightened respect in a world with building economic, social, political and homeland security uncertainties.
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