Economic impacts of AI-augmented R&D Besiroglu, Tamay; Emery-Xu, Nicholas; Thompson, Neil
Research policy,
September 2024, 2024-09-00, Letnik:
53, Številka:
7
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Since its emergence around 2010, deep learning has rapidly become the most important technique in Artificial Intelligence (AI), producing an array of scientific firsts in areas as diverse as protein ...folding, drug discovery, integrated chip design, and weather prediction. As scientists and engineers adopt deep learning, it is important to consider what effect widespread deployment would have on scientific progress and, ultimately, economic growth. We assess this impact by estimating the idea production function for AI in two computer vision tasks that are considered key test-beds for deep learning and show that AI idea production is notably more capital-intensive than traditional R&D. Because increasing the capital-intensity of R&D accelerates the investments that make scientists and engineers more productive, our work suggests that AI-augmented R&D has the potential to speed up technological change and economic growth.
•Capital-intensive technologies in R&D may speed up innovation and economic growth.•We present a dataset on human and computational capital in deep learning.•A new machine learning approach more accurately measures scientists’ human capital.•Deep learning is found to be more capital-intensive than most U.S. STEM R&D fields.•If deep learning in R&D diffuses widely, the U.S. economic growth rate may double.
Although the economy of China has grown very strongly over the last few decades, this spectacular performance has come at the expense of rapid environmental deterioration. Amidst animated debate on ...the issue of global warming, this study attempts to explore the determinants of CO2 emissions in China using aggregate data for more than half a century. Adopting an analytical framework that combines the environmental literature with modern endogenous growth theories, the results indicate that CO2 emissions in China are negatively related to research intensity, technology transfer and the absorptive capacity of the economy to assimilate foreign technology. Our findings also indicate that more energy use, higher income and greater trade openness tend to cause more CO2 emissions.
Contemporary theories of entrepreneurship generally focus on the recognition of opportunities and the decision to exploit them. Although the entrepreneurship literature treats opportunities as ...exogenous, the prevailing theory of economic growth suggests they are endogenous. This paper advances the microeconomic foundations of endogenous growth theory by developing a knowledge spillover theory of entrepreneurship. Knowledge created endogenously results in knowledge spillovers, which allow entrepreneurs to identify and exploit opportunities.
•A theoretical framework to explore economic impacts of entrepreneurial university's activities.•We test our model using UK data from 2005 to 2007 for 147 universities located in 74 NUTS-3 ...regions.•Results show the positive and significant economic impact of universities’ activities.•Higher economic impact of the Russell Group is explained by entrepreneurial spin-offs.•The impact of the rest of UK's universities is associated with knowledge transfer activities.
Throughout economic history, institutions have established the rules that shape human interaction. In this sense, political, socio-cultural, and economic issues respond to particular forces: managed economy or entrepreneurial economy. In the entrepreneurial economy, the dominant production factor is knowledge capital that is the source of competitive advantage, which is complemented by entrepreneurship capital, representing the capacity to engage in and generate entrepreneurial activity. Thus, an entrepreneurial economy generates scenarios in which its members can explore and exploit economic opportunities and knowledge to promote new entrepreneurial phenomena that have not been previously visualised. In this context, the entrepreneurial university serves as a conduit of spillovers contributing to economic and social development through its multiple missions of teaching, research, and entrepreneurial activities. In particular, the outcomes of its missions are associated with the determinants of production functions (e.g. human capital, knowledge capital, social capital, and entrepreneurship capital). All these themes are still considerate potentially in the research agenda in academic entrepreneurship literature. This paper modestly tries to contribute to a better understanding of the economic impact of entrepreneurial universities’ teaching, research, and entrepreneurial activities. Taking an endogenous growth perspective, the proposed conceptual model is tested using data collected from 2005 to 2007 for 147 universities located in 74 Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics-3 (NUTS-3) regions of the United Kingdom. The results of this exploratory analysis show the positive and significant economic impact of teaching, research, and entrepreneurial activities. Interestingly, the higher economic impact of the United Kingdom's entrepreneurial universities (the Russell Group) is explained by entrepreneurial spin-offs. However, our control group composed by the rest of the country's universities, the highest economic impact is associated with knowledge transfer (knowledge capital).
The increasing environmental degradation is a major obstacle, despite the fact that the world has done a good job of dealing with sustainable development recently. This research sets out to fill that ...gap by examining 38 Asian economies from 2000 to 2021 in an effort to identify the novel factors that will determine sustainable growth. Progress in technology, availability of raw materials, technological advancement, and entrepreneurship are some of the factors that determine this. Similar to previous empirical research, this study's aims are investigated using the following tests: system GMM, quantile GMM, GMM, two-stage system, and one-step system GMM. Nonetheless, the results of the study show that technological innovation, gross capital creation, and the domestic labor force all contribute positively to economic development. In a similar vein, the endogenous growth hypothesis predicts that when economies develop rapidly, their use of natural resources would decrease. Additionally, some economies see a rise in growth when they engage in entrepreneurial activity and use renewable energy sources. This report also recommends some viable approaches for Asian countries to achieve fast development through the management of natural resources.
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•Is technical progress a supportive instrument for the Endogenous Growth Theory?•Natural Resources rents significantly reduce the level of growth.•Entrepreneurship and renewable energy significantly increase growth level.•Advanced series of estimators have been used for robust outcomes.•Policy recommendations are suggested to attain the rapid growth level.
Globalization and Growth Grossman, Gene M.; Helpman, Elhanan
The American economic review,
05/2015, Letnik:
105, Številka:
5
Journal Article
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How does globalization affect economic growth? We discuss mechanisms that link international integration to the incentives for knowledge accumulation and the efficacy of that process. First, ...integration facilitates the flow of knowledge across national borders. Second, integration affords innovators a larger potential market even as it subjects them to additional competition from foreign rivals. Third, integration encourages specialization according to comparative advantage. Finally, integration affects the incentives for technological diffusion. Taken together, the literature offers many theoretical insights. Some progress has also been made on the empirical side, although data and methodological impediments have left assessment and measurement lagging behind.
What are the historical origins of political fragmentation and unification? This study develops a Malthusian growth model with multiple states to explore interstate competition and the endogenous ...emergence of political fragmentation versus a unified empire. Our model features an agricultural society with citizens and rulers in a Malthusian environment in which the expansion of one state may come at the expense of another state, depending on the intensity of interstate competition captured by the elasticity of the land ratio with respect to the population ratio between states. If this elasticity is less than unity, then multiple states coexist. However, if this elasticity is equal to unity, then a unified empire emerges. Which state becomes the unified empire depends on its military power, agricultural productivity, and its rulers’ preference for rent-seeking Leviathan taxation. We also discuss the historical relevance of these theoretical predictions in the Warring States period of ancient China.
•Long-lasting individual tree growth contradicts textbook knowledge.•Mass growth culminates mostly far beyond rotation age.•Spacing, thinning, or fertilization do not cause earlier growth ...decrease.•Environmental changes may strongly increase level and peristence of growth.
The course of tree growth, especially the level and persistence until advanced age, indicates the competitivenes and fitness of trees and determines stand structure and dynamics. The velocity of size growth and aging affects many other plants and animals living at and from trees. Thus forestry and many ecosystem functions and services are depending on the course of tree growth.
First, novel empirical findings of particular persisting tree growth in various parts of the world were presented and motivated this review. The revealed increasing, mostly positive, deviations of observed from theoretically expected tree growth directed this review to be based on literature and own long-term experiments, stem analyses, and increment cores from temperate forests. Second, the common growth theory and respective growth equations were revisited; they later were used for analyzing observed courses of dominant trees' mass growth and productivity. Third, tree developments over size and age were analyzed as affected by tree species, site conditions, thinning, and fertilization and enviromental changes. Stem analyses and increment core analyses of Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) representing the growth from 1560 to 1882 indicated a persistence of volume growth beyond age of 300 years even in this historic period of comparatively steady environmental conditions. The mass growth of 735 dominant trees revealed mean culmination ages between 211 and 480 years with the ranking sessile oak (Quercus petraea (Matt.) Liebl.) > European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) > Norway spruce > Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.). Trees on sites with high site index grew quicker, peaked, and decreased earlier in annual growth, whereas trees on poor sites culminated later in terms of age. The courses of annual growth in dependence on tree mass ran more synchronous on different sites. They differed much more in the level than in the rhythm. A total of 910 Scots pines on combined thinned and fertilized compared with control plots revealed for both groups a continous increase of growth until high ages and no preponed size-related growth decrease of the treated trees.
For analyzing any modification of the course of growth by environmental changes I used a dataset of 591 cored European beeches and for corroboration 580 permanantly surveyed tree from long-term experiments of the four above mentiond main tree species in Europe. On top of their long-lasting growth all species together showed a strong acceleration of annual growth. Their growth acceleration was obviously caused by environmental changes and the highest in 1850 to 1900. It lessend in the last 50 years, and did not trigger any preponed age- or size related decrease. Finally, I discussed the consequences of the amazingly high and long-lasting tree growth for forest ecology, management and future research.
The missing link Braunerhjelm, Pontus; Acs, Zoltan J; Audretsch, David B ...
Small business economics,
02/2010, Letnik:
34, Številka:
2
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The intellectual breakthrough contributed by the new growth theory was the recognition that investments in knowledge and human capital endogenously generate economic growth through the spillover of ...knowledge. However, endogenous growth theory does not explain how or why spillovers occur. This paper presents a model that shows how growth depends on knowledge accumulation and its diffusion through both incumbents and entrepreneurial activities. We claim that entrepreneurs are one missing link in converting knowledge into economically relevant knowledge. Implementing different regression techniques for the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries during 1981 to 2002 provides surprisingly robust evidence that primarily entrepreneurs contributed to growth and that the importance of entrepreneurs increased in the 1990s. A Granger test confirms that causality goes in the direction from entrepreneurs to growth. The results indicate that policies facilitating entrepreneurship are an important tool to enhance knowledge diffusion and promote economic growth.
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