This study uses annual time series data spanning 1981–2018 to investigate the threshold effects of import dependence on economic growth in Nigeria. The ordinary least squares (OLS) and the fully ...modified OLS (FMOLS) techniques are employed for estimation of a quadratic regression model to determine the nature of the relationship between
aggregate import dependence and economic growth. It is found that the relationship is concave, that is, it follows an inverted-U shape. The conditional least squares estimator is thereafter employed to estimate the threshold model specified to determine the threshold level of import dependence. The study finds a threshold level of 26% for aggregate import dependence. Below this threshold, import dependence positively
affects economic growth; above the threshold, the growth effect of import dependence is adverse. Furthermore, it is found that the long-run growth effect of Inflation is adverse, and investment is favourable to long-run economic growth. Based on these findings, the paper recommends efforts by Nigeria’s government to reduce import dependence below the estimated threshold of 26%, control inflation and encourage investment so as to enhance the growth of the nation’s economy.
•In Thailand, the advanced technology tends to affect the reallocation of workers between skilled and unskilled positions.•The results vary among workers’ industrial destinations and proxies of ...technology.•Skill upgrading is likely to occur more when workers stay or move within manufacturing sectors.•Our results highlight a diminished negative impact resulting from imports, particularly those of capital and final goods.•Workers’ income is likely to be lower in response to technology progress and imports.
This paper examines the impact of advanced technology and import penetration on changes in employment positions and income, as well as the possibility that workers become unemployed due to such technological progress. Two proxies of advanced technology are used, ICT and the intensity of robot usage. The analysis considers changes in employment status and income, together with workers’ industrial adjustments in investigating the impact of technological advancements and imports, which are delineated into raw materials, capital goods and final products. The results show that in Thailand, the impact of advanced technology in pushing workers out of the job market is limited. Instead, it tends to affect the reallocation of workers between skilled and unskilled positions. The results vary among workers’ industrial destinations and proxies of technology. Skill upgrading is likely to occur more when workers stay or move within manufacturing sectors, while ICT usage tends to generate more favourable outcomes than robot adoption. Workers in comparatively capital-intensive industries, including the automotive and plastics and rubber sectors, tend to receive greater benefits from technological growth. Our results highlight a diminished negative impact resulting from imports, particularly those of capital and final goods, in comparison to that of technological advancements. Technology adoption and imports are likely to lower workers’ income regardless of their industrial destinations and proxies of technology.
U.S. job flows and the China shock Asquith, Brian; Goswami, Sanjana; Neumark, David ...
Journal of international economics,
05/2019, Letnik:
118
Journal Article
Recenzirano
Odprti dostop
International trade exposure affects job flows along the intensive margin (from expansions and contractions of firms' employment) as well as along the extensive margin (from births and deaths of ...firms). This paper uses 1992–2011 employment data from U.S. establishments to construct job flows at both the industry and commuting-zone levels, and then estimates the impact of the ‘China shock’ on each job-flow type. Using the two most influential measures of Chinese exposure, we find that the China shock affects U.S. employment mainly through deaths of establishments. At the commuting-zone level, we find evidence of large job reallocation from the Chinese-competition exposed sector to the nonexposed sector. Moreover, we demonstrate that the job-flow effects of the China shock are fundamentally different from those of a more general adverse shock affecting the U.S. demand for domestic labor.
Purpose
The purpose of the paper “Commerce, jobs and politics: the impact of the USA–China trade on USA domestic politics” is to examine the impact of Chinese trade with the USA to determine the ...consequences of the trade on manufacturing employment. The geographic and sectoral impacts of this trade are assessed. The conclusion is that the USA–China trade has affected political polarization in such a way as to affect electoral outcomes. Implications for policy are discussed in the paper.
Design/methodology/approach
The overall design is a focused case study in terms of its focus on the USA–China trade relations. There is also a statistical component due to the breakdown of the USA in economic commuting zones.
Findings
The major finding is that Chinese import penetration created substantial political polarization in the USA and that polarization affected electoral outcomes. Chinese import penetration also resulted in a shift of jobs from the eastern heartland to the coasts. Much of the transition was aided by the restructuring of jobs within firms from manufacturing to high-end services.
Research limitations/implications
Perhaps, the biggest limitation concerns how general and durable the findings are. The authors establish that the first decade after Chinese entry into the World Trade Organization (WTO) (2001) was characterized by economic disruption in the USA labor market. Whether the economic effects will have a longer duration is not known.
Practical implications
One practical limitation is that it is difficult to know what policy actions to take on the basis of the research: trade policy, human capital (education) policy or place-based policies which aid particular regions.
Social implications
The social implications in this paper are jobs and employment policy.
Originality/value
The author thinks this is very original work, though based on the work of several economists. But outside of a few articles, the author does not think much has appeared in political science journals.
Modelling import penetration Clements, Kenneth W.; Vo, Long Hai; Mariano, Marc Jim
Economic modelling,
September 2021, 2021-09-00, Letnik:
102
Journal Article
Recenzirano
Import penetration has grown substantially in Australia over the past two decades. This study examines import penetration using a consumer demand approach that distinguishes domestically and ...foreign-produced varieties. The approach avoids restrictive assumptions such as homotheticity and permits an array of hypothesis tests of a functional form. This study uses an innovative procedure to estimate the model with a relative short time series, which is important for countries with limited data. We show how consistent aggregation leads to a macro-level import demand equation that faithfully reflects the underlying micro-demands. Surprisingly, income growth is mainly responsible for the surge in imports and not for their low cost.
•The study models the recent spurt in import penetration in Australia.•A consumer demand approach with foreign and domestic varieties is used.•Imports are the aggregation of the demands for foreign varieties.•Nonstandard econometric procedures to deal with a limited number of observations.•Imports are driven by higher incomes and not lower prices.
This study numerically estimates the effect of increased Chinese import penetration using U.S. manufacturing-level panel data from 1997 to 2005. It also decomposes this effect into factor ...substitution effects and output scale effects. Since import penetration rates may have endogeneity problems, we use China's share of world trade to quantify Chinese import penetration. The results show that increased imports from China increase fuel and electricity consumption: the marginal effect of Chinese import penetration is small but statistically significant, ranging from about 0.05% to 0.08%. Interestingly, the decomposition reveals opposite effects across energy types: the factor substitution effect for fuel is positive, while the factor substitution effect for electricity is negative, despite the impact of Chinese imports. The effects on fuel and electricity are both significantly positive, while the effect on electricity is negative. These results suggest the need for different policy responses across industries to the effects of trade, with implications for the environmental problems caused by energy use.
This study presents the first micro-level analysis of the causal effect of Chinese import penetration on firm productivity in 24 sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) countries. We make key contributions to the ...literature by examining the heterogeneous effects of Chinese imports on firm productivity using data on transport infrastructure, and by distinguishing between import competition and import of intermediate inputs. Two instrumental variables, one based on exogenous geographic characteristic of ports and transportation technology shock, and the other based on a supply-side shock, are constructed to address the endogeneity of import penetration. The results indicate that imports from China impact positively on firm productivity, mainly through imports of intermediate inputs, and there is significant heterogeneity of these effects in terms of firms' proximity to ports and initial productivity level. Overall, our findings suggest that Chinese imports could be viewed as an opportunity for Sub-Sahara Africa firms to enhance their productivity. Furthermore, they highlight the need for developing countries to invest in transport infrastructure to effectively promote firms participation in international markets.
PDF
