We summarize a large set of recent simulations and policy analyses based on FAPRI’s world multimarket, partial-equilibrium models. We first quantify and project the emergence of biofuel markets in ...US and world agriculture for the coming decade. Then, we perturb the models with incremental shocks in US and world ethanol consumption in deviation from this projected emergence to assess their effects on world agricultural and food markets. Various food-biofuel trade-offs are quantified and examined. Increases in food prices are moderate for the US ethanol expansion and even smaller for the ethanol expansion outside the United States, which is based on sugarcane feedstock, which has little feedback on other markets. With the US expansion, the high protection in the US ethanol market limits potential adjustments in the world ethanol markets and increases the demand for feedstock within the United States. Changes in US grain and oilseed market prices propagate to world markets, as the United States is a large exporter in these markets. With changes in world prices, land allocation in the rest of the world responds to the new relative prices as in the United States but with smaller magnitudes because price transmission to local markets is less than full.
This study addresses a fuzzy–neural hybrid system of simulating typhoon waves. A membership function based on the fuzzy theory is expressed by a union Gaussian function to illustrate the rapid wave ...decaying. Four areas separated by two lines which intersect at the Hua-Lien harbor indicate the case of typhoon's position and propagation. Better simulation performance of the peak wave heights and their occurrence time in both the learning stage and the verification stage simulated by the NF2 model than by the NF1 model is identified. The wave decaying due to land effect is well described by the NF2 model. The NF2 model is applicable for well simulating typhoon waves during the whole period of a typhoon approaching to Taiwan.
