Bayesian models have been applied throughout the Covid-19 pandemic especially to model time series of case counts or deaths. Fewer examples exist of spatio-temporal modeling, even though the spatial ...spread of disease is a crucial factor in public health monitoring. The predictive capabilities of infectious disease models is also important.
In this study, the ability of Bayesian hierarchical models to recover different parts of the variation in disease counts is the focus. It is clear that different measures provide different views of behavior when models are fitted prospectively. Over a series of time horizons one step predictions have been generated and compared for different models (for case counts and death counts). These Bayesian SIR models were fitted using MCMC at 28 time horizons to mimic prospective prediction. A range of goodness of prediction measures were analyzed across the different time horizons.
A particularly important result is that the peak intensity of case load is often under-estimated, while random spikes in case load can be mimicked using time dependent random effects. It is also clear that during the early wave of the pandemic simpler model forms are favored, but subsequently lagged spatial dependence models for cases are favored, even if the sophisticated models perform better overall.
The models fitted mimic the situation where at a given time the history of the process is known but the future must be predicted based on the current evolution which has been observed. Using an overall 'best' model for prediction based on retrospective fitting of the complete pandemic waves is an assumption. However it is also clear that this case count model is well favored over other forms. During the first wave a simpler time series model predicts case counts better for counties than a spatially dependent one. The picture is more varied for morality.
From a predictive point of view it is clear that spatio-temporal models applied to county level Covid-19 data within the US vary in how well they fit over time and also how well they predict future events. At different times, SIR case count models and also mortality models with cumulative counts perform better in terms of prediction. A fundamental result is that predictive capability of models varies over time and using the same model could lead to poor predictive performance. In addition it is clear that models addressing the spatial context for case counts (i.e. with lagged neighborhood terms) and cumulative case counts for mortality data are clearly better at modeling spatio-temporal data which is commonly available for the Covid-19 pandemic in different areas of the globe.
Unatoč razvoju mehanizacije i primjeni visokih tehnologija u sustavima pridobivanja drva ručno-strojni rad motornom pilom i dalje prevladava u Jugoistočnoj Europi, ali i šire. Biomehaničko ...opterećenje šumskoga radnika u takvim operacijama kategorizirano je kao »vrlo veliko«. Procjena centra mase pritom ima važnu ulogu u razumijevanju izloženosti šumskih radnika posturalnim i profesionalnim rizicima, bilo kao dio cjelokupnoga procesa rada ili kao dio pojedinoga elementa radne tehnike. U skladu s tim cilj ovoga istraživanja sastoji se u određivanju položaja centra mase radnika s motornom pilom s obzirom na tri ključna radna elementa pri sječi stabala (izvođenje zasjeka, izvođenje završnoga reza i zabijanje klina sjekirom) te njegove povezanosti s osobnim i profesionalnim čimbenicima. Za mjerenje položaja centra mase (n = 28 šumskih radilišta, što ujedno čini 28 uzorkovanih radnika) korišteno je odijelo za snimanje pokreta Xsens MVN Link kao vrhunska tehnologija koja omogućuje prikupljanje podataka u stvarnim terenskim uvjetima. Za analizu snimljenih podataka primijenjene su deskriptivne i inferencijalne statističke metode. Promatrani profesionalni čimbenici (metoda rada, model gospodarenja i prsni promjer stabla) i osobni čimbenici (životna dob, visina i indeks tjelesne mase) rezultirali su statistički značajnom razlikom u pogledu izmjerenih vrijednosti centra mase. Na osnovi svega navedenoga daljnja kinematička istraživanja u šumarstvu trebala bi pridonijeti jačemu uključivanju rješenja Industrije 5.0 u sječu i izradu drva, posebno u ručno-strojni rad, primjenom tehnologija virtualne stvarnosti tijekom obuke radnika ili primjenom najnovijih tehnoloških rješenja u smislu jačanja ljudskoga rada s jedne strane te povećanja sigurnosti i zaštite zdravlja s druge strane.
Despite the development of mechanization and the application of high technologies in wood harvesting systems, motor-manual work with a chainsaw still prevails in the countries of South-Eastern Europe and beyond. The biomechanical workload of forestry workers in such operations is categorized as »very heavy«. The Center of Mass (CM) assessment plays an important role in understanding the exposure of forest workers to postural and occupational risks, either as part of the entire work process or as a part of a particular element of work technique. Accordingly, the aim of this research is to determine the position of the Center of Mass of the chainsaw workers in relation to three key work elements in tree felling operations (performing undercut, preforming final cut, and hammering a wedge with an axe) and its connection with personal and professional factors. To measure the position of the Center of Mass (n=28 forest sites, which also makes 28 sampled workers), the Xsens MVN Link motion capture suit was used as a state-of-the-art technology that enables data collection under real field conditions. Descriptive and inferential statistical methods were used to analyze the recorded data. Considered professional factors (working method, management model and tree diameter at breast height) and personal factors (age, height and body mass index) resulted in statistically significant difference regarding the measured values of the Center of Mass. Based on all the above, further kinematic research in forestry should contribute to a stronger inclusion of Industry 5.0 solutions in logging operations, especially motor-manual work, by applying virtual reality technologies during worker training or by using the latest technological solutions in terms of strengthening human labor on the one hand, and increasing safety and health protection on the other.
Daedalus MASE (Mission Assessment through Simulation Exercise) is an open-source package of scientific analysis tools aimed at research in the Lower Thermosphere-Ionosphere (LTI). It was created with ...the purpose to assess the performance and demonstrate closure of the mission objectives of Daedalus, a mission concept targeting to perform
in-situ
measurements in the LTI. However, through its successful usage as a mission-simulator toolset, Daedalus MASE has evolved to encompass numerous capabilities related to LTI science and modeling. Inputs are geophysical observables in the LTI, which can be obtained either through
in-situ
measurements from spacecraft and rockets, or through Global Circulation Models (GCM). These include ion, neutral and electron densities, ion and neutral composition, ion, electron and neutral temperatures, ion drifts, neutral winds, electric field, and magnetic field. In the examples presented, these geophysical observables are obtained through NCAR’s Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Electrodynamics General Circulation Model. Capabilities of Daedalus MASE include: 1) Calculations of products that are derived from the above geophysical observables, such as Joule heating, energy transfer rates between species, electrical currents, electrical conductivity, ion-neutral collision frequencies between all combinations of species, as well as height-integrations of derived products. 2) Calculation and cross-comparison of collision frequencies and estimates of the effect of using different models of collision frequencies into derived products. 3) Calculation of the uncertainties of derived products based on the uncertainties of the geophysical observables, due to instrument errors or to uncertainties in measurement techniques. 4) Routines for the along-orbit interpolation within gridded datasets of GCMs. 5) Routines for the calculation of the global coverage of an
in situ
mission in regions of interest and for various conditions of solar and geomagnetic activity. 6) Calculations of the statistical significance of obtaining the primary and derived products throughout an
in situ
mission’s lifetime. 7) Routines for the visualization of 3D datasets of GCMs and of measurements along orbit. Daedalus MASE code is accompanied by a set of Jupyter Notebooks, incorporating all required theory, references, codes and plotting in a user-friendly environment. Daedalus MASE is developed and maintained at the Department for Electrical and Computer Engineering of the Democritus University of Thrace, with key contributions from several partner institutions.
The noise recorded at a seismic station has information about some properties of the medium such as their discontinuities. The depth of these changes in velocity can be retrieved using ...auto-correlation and stacking methods applied to the seismic noise. We developed a new method to constrain Moho reflections hidden within the autocorrelation of seismic noise. This is done by filtering the data in different frequency bands (each one defined by a central frequency), applying the auto-correlation and stacking process per central frequency and finally stacking the frequencies of interest. Synthetic tests showed that phases associated with a discontinuity at depth arrive at the same lag time across different frequencies, while side lobes and constructive interactions of the random noise have time shifts in the lag time. We tested the method using data from the MASE array installed in Central Mexico and the results show a good agreement with previous works. We found that exploring the frequency content with different bandwidth filters and stacking only those with useful information helps to improve the SNR and to find the phase associated with the Moho discontinuity at depth.
•Moho reflections within the seismic noise could be retrieved using autocorrelations.•Two-way times from Moho reflections shows time stability in every frequency band.•Select different frequency bands in the final stack improve the SNR.
This paper presents a multi-agent model system to characterize land-use change dynamics. The replicable parameterization process should be useful to the development of simulation frameworks, ...important to environmental policy makers to analyze different scenarios during decision making process. The methodological two-fold approach intends to form a solid backbone based on: (i) the systematic and structured empirical characterization of the model; and (ii) the conceptual structure definition according to the agent-based model documentation protocol – Overview, Design concepts and Details. A multi-agent system for land-use change simulation was developed to validate the model, which is illustrated with a case study of the Brazilian Cerrado using LANDSAT ETM images. The simulation results prove the model importance with a figure of merit greater than 50%, what means the amount of correctly predicted change is larger than the sum of any type of error. The results are very good compared with nine popular peer-reviewed land change models.
► In this paper a multi-agent model system to characterize land-use change dynamics is presented. ► The model includes: empirically characterization (Smajgl et al., 2011) & conceptual structure (Grimm et al., 2006 – ODD protocol). ► MASE – a Multi-Agent System for Environmental land-use change simulation was developed to validate the model. ► MASE simulation results include: 3 possible 2-map & 3-map comparisons of Brazil's Federal District (Pontius et al., 2008). ► The results figure of merit is greater than 50%: amount of correctly predicted change is larger than the sum of any error.
Cilj: Porod carskim rezom kontinuirano se povezuje s povećanim rizikom za pojavu komponenti metaboličkog sindroma kod ispitanika u općoj populaciji, dok su podatci za bolesnike sa shizofrenijom ...manjkavi i proturječni. U ovom smo istraživanju ispitali pridonosi li, i u kojoj mjeri, vrsta poroda vrijednostima indeksa tjelesne mase (ITM) te koncentracijama lipida i glukoze u plazmi na dvjema skupinama bolesnika sa shizofrenijom koji ne primaju terapiju: u bolesnika s prvom epizodom shizofrenije (N = 48) i u kroničnih bolesnika neadherentnih prema antipsihotičnoj terapiji (N = 83). Ispitanici i metode: Podatci o vrsti poroda i neadherentnosti prema antipsihotičnoj terapiji prikupljeni su iz autoanamneze i heteroanamneze. Određivanje ukupnog kolesterola, LDL kolesterola (engl. low density lipoprotein cholesterol), HDL kolesterola (engl. high density lipoprotein cholesterol), triglicerida i glukoze u plazmi realizirano je nakon 12-satnog gladovanja. Rezultati: Učestalost poroda carskim rezom iznosila je 8,4 %. Koncentracije triglicerida i vrijednosti ITM-a bile su značajno više u bolesnika rođenih carskim rezom u odnosu na bolesnike rođene vaginalnim porodom: 1,5 (0,6 – 4,3) vs. 1,1 (0,3 – 3,1); z = -2,21, p = 0,027. Vrsta poroda pridonosi s približno 3,3 % varijabilnosti koncentracija triglicerida. Zaključci: Naši rezultati upućuju da vrsta poroda utječe u manjoj mjeri na koncentracije triglicerida u plazmi u bolesnika sa shizofrenijom koji nisu na terapiji antipsihotičnim lijekovima. Porod carskim rezom predstavlja rizični čimbenik za povišene koncentracije triglicerida.
Cilj je ovoga istraživanja bio ispitati simptomatologiju poremećaja hranjenja i njezin odnos s kognitivnim obrascima
hranjenja, indeksom tjelesne mase (ITM) i spolom u hrvatskih adolescenata. ...Istraživanjem je obuhvaćen 649
sudionika, od čega je 50,4% bilo mladića. Svi sudionici bili su učenici prvih razreda srednjih škola u dobi od 14
do 16,5 godina, koji su popunjavali upitnike u školskim ambulantama tijekom redovnog zdravstvenog pregleda.
Adolescentice su pokazale više simptoma poremećaja hranjenja i češću uporabu kognitivnih obrazaca hranjenja u
usporedbi s adolescentima. Nadalje, adolescenti s većim ITM-om također su izvijestili o više simptoma poremećaja
hranjenja i kognitivnoga suzdržavanja. Zaključno, kognitivni obrasci hranjenja i povezana psihopatologija
poremećaja hranjenja relevantne su karakteristike hrvatskih adolescenata, uglavnom kod djevojaka s višim ITM-om.
The geometry and properties of the interface of the Cocos plate beneath central Mexico are determined from the receiver functions (RFs) utilizing data from the Meso America Subduction Experiment ...(MASE). The RF image shows that the subducting oceanic crust is shallowly dipping to the north at 15° for 80 km from Acapulco and then horizontally underplates the continental crust for approximately 200 km to the Trans‐Mexican Volcanic Belt (TMVB). The crustal image also shows that there is no continental root associated with the TMVB. The migrated image of the RFs shows that the slab is steeply dipping into the mantle at about 75° beneath the TMVB. Both the continental and oceanic Moho are clearly seen in both images, and modeling of the RF conversion amplitudes and timings of the underplated features reveals a thin low‐velocity zone between the plate and the continental crust that appears to absorb nearly all of the strain between the upper plate and the slab. By inverting RF amplitudes of the converted phases and their time separations, we produce detailed maps of the seismic properties of the upper and lower oceanic crust of the subducting Cocos plate and its thickness. High Poisson's and Vp/Vs ratios due to anomalously low S wave velocity at the upper oceanic crust in the flat slab region may indicate the presence of water and hydrous minerals or high pore pressure. The evidence of high water content within the oceanic crust explains the flat subduction geometry without strong coupling of two plates. This may also explain the nonvolcanic tremor activity and slow slip events occurring in the subducting plate and the overlying crust.
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