PurposeThis paper aims to explore the value of geographic diversification in the context of deglobalization, drawing evidence from a quasi-natural experiment – the Brexit referendum that took place ...on 23 June 2016 in the UK.Design/methodology/approachThis study applies an event study methodology to estimate the impact of the Brexit vote on a cross-section of firms with varying levels of geographic diversification – undiversified UK firms, UK firms with significant operations in the European Union (EU) and globally diversified UK firms. This study deploys a Heckman two-stage regression approach to address sample selection bias.FindingsThis study finds that undiversified UK firms experienced negative cumulative abnormal returns (CARs) around the Brexit referendum. The value of UK firms with majority sales within the UK declined by 0.9 percentage points, on average, in the three days centred on the Brexit referendum. In contrast, UK firms that are globally diversified, with the majority of sales within the EU are unaffected, while diversified firms in the rest of the world generated positive CARs of 1.8 percentage points over the same period. These results are robust to firm characteristics, selection bias and alternative measures of CARs and diversification.Research limitations/implicationsThis study is subject to some limitations that open avenues for future work. There are a few available proxies of diversification and further work on developing other proxies is much needed. Further work may also examine the long-term impact of diversification on UK firms. This study considered Brexit as a quasi-natural experiment, and this study could be applied to other deglobalization events like COVID-19 and can enhance the generalizability of diversification strategy in the deglobalized world. Findings may stimulate future work to explore how another form of diversification – product diversification has affected firm returns around Brexit. Finally, this study has focused on the UK as its base case. It may be interesting to corroborate the findings by exploring the impact of Brexit on European firms, who hitherto Brexit, had some operations in the UK.Practical implicationsThis work offers some insights for policymakers and regulators around the impact of deglobalization on local firms. Findings suggest that these trends significantly negatively impact the most vulnerable firms (smaller firms with less global reach), while their larger counterparts with significant global reach might be insulated. This finding is important for determining the nature of support needed by different firms in times of deglobalization. The work also offers insights to managers of firms operating in countries where there are real prospects of deglobalization. Specifically, the work highlights the importance of geographic diversification when free movement of goods, services and people is restricted.Originality/valueThis study shows that a certain group of globally diversified firms earned significantly higher returns from the prospect of the UK leaving the EU, thereby highlighting the value of geographic diversification in a time of deglobalization.
The Papuan Armed Criminal Group (KKB) has been a hereditary problem for the Indonesian government. Their demand to secede from the Republic of Indonesia was the main reason why this group was formed. ...Because the Government has not responded to the demands of the KKB, it led this group to carry out acts of terror against the society in Papua. One of the cases that have recently attracted media attention is the KKB’s attack that killed several workers in Beoga, Puncak district, Papua. The study aims to analyze and evaluate the settlement of terrorism cases carried out by KKB. This normative legal research relied on secondary data. The results of the study indicate that in international law, the context of referendum exists only in the context of decolonization and non-self-governing territory. The government's move by considering the KKB as a separatist terrorist group and not accepting KKB's demands for a referendum or mediation is one of the right steps. Acts of terrorism cannot be tolerated even though they are related to human rights because it is regulated in legislation
The UK's 2016 EU referendum and its aftermath have seen the eruption back into mainstream political and media discourse of spatial language and representations. As commentators, politicians and ...citizens have sought to make sense of the splintering and convulsion occasioned by the referendum, a spatial imaginary and lexicon has emerged - for example, referencing 'left behind places' populated by 'left behind' citizens, and contrasting these with 'metropolitan cores' and 'metropolitan elites'. Informed by this the present paper identifies and unpacks some of the spatial imaginaries foregrounded in the UK's 'European debate' and the aftermath of the 2016 EU referendum.
Using volunteer writing for Mass Observation, we explore how British citizens decided whether to leave the EU. The 2016 referendum was the biggest decision made by the British electorate in decades, ...but involved limited voter analysis. Many citizens did not have strong views about EU membership in early 2016. The campaigns did not help to firm up their views, not least because so much information appeared to be in dispute. Voters, often characterised as polarised, were reluctant and uncertain. Many citizens took their duty to decide seriously, but were driven more by hunch than careful analysis. In 2016, voters reacted against elites they did not trust at least as much as they embraced the ideas of trusted elites. This contrasts with the 1975 Referendum on the Common Market, when the vote was driven by elite endorsement. In low-trust contexts, voters use cues from elites as negative rather than positive stimulus.
Even though the opinion polling before the British referendum on membership of the European Union showed a narrow gap between the two sides, the actual result—a vote to leave—on the morning of 24 ...June 2016 came as a surprise to many. Yet in truth both the referendum and its outcome had deep roots in British politics. In this article we cast an eye over the history of Britain's relationship with the EU, which has long been marked by a mixture of awkwardness and successful influence. We trace the origins of the referendum in long-run tensions between, and within, the political parties, and in the lukewarm public support for European integration. We also examine more contingent, short-term factors relating to the referendum campaign itself. We conclude by commenting on the divisions exposed by the vote along lines of geography, education, class and wealth, and suggest that reconciling these with the continuing tensions in the party landscape make a clean and speedy exit from the EU unlikely.
Over recent decades, many countries have gained experience with referendums, citizens’ forums, citizens’ juries, collaborative governance, participatory budgeting, and other models in which citizens ...have a more direct say. Citizen participation is usually considered a valuable element of democratic citizenship and democratic decision-making. Many theorists claim that citizen participation has positive effects on the quality of democracy. This article examines the probability of these claims for a large number of cases in different Western countries. Four types of democratic innovation are distinguished and evaluated according to the extent to which they realize positive effects on democracy. The findings show that citizen involvement has a number of positive effects on democracy: it increases issue knowledge, civic skills, and public engagement, and it contributes to the support for decisions among the participants. The analysis also makes it clear that the contribution of participation to democracy differs according to type of democratic innovations; deliberative forums and surveys appear to be better at promoting the exchange of arguments, whereas referendums and participatory policy making projects are better at giving citizens influence on policy making and involving more people. But, as I try to argue, since these positive effects are perceptible only to those taking part and the number of participants is often small or particular groups are underrepresented, the benefits to individual democratic citizenship are far more conclusive than the benefits to democracy as a whole.
Points for practitioners
This article distinguishes four types of democratic innovation and, for each type, examines the effects of citizen participation on the quality of democracy. It offers a systematic analysis of the contribution of participation to elements of democracy, such as influence on decision-making, inclusion, skills and virtues, deliberation, and legitimacy. The analysis points to a number of positive effects on democracy, but the findings also show that the contribution of participation to democracy differs according to the type of democratic innovations.
Within the UK, Scotland offers a unique case study of ‘Votes-at-16’ in practice. Research provided evidence on the immediate effects of voting age reform on young people’s engagement with politics, ...but little is known about how young people experienced being allowed to vote from the age of 16 years. This article analyses qualitative evidence about young people’s experiences with the right to vote at 16 since the voting age reform in Scotland. Drawing on data from interviews with young people, we find that ‘Votes-at-16’ brought about a mix of experiences. In combination with the experience of the 2014 Scottish independence referendum it marked a uniquely mobilising life event that boosted confidence in youth voice and led to a perceived increase in political efficacy. It also raised frustrations with young people, however, about their lack of voting rights in other elections and about a perceived gap between expectations and reality regarding the role of schools. By examining young people’s experiences with ‘Votes-at-16’ in Scotland, this article contributes to debates about the implications of voting age reform in the Scotland and beyond.
New Zealand recently held the world's first national referendum on cannabis legalisation involving a detailed bill to regulate retail sale and supply of cannabis for recreational (non‐medical) adult ...use (i.e. the Cannabis Legalisation and Control Bill; CLCB). The referendum generated significant domestic debate and lobbying from both sides of the issue. The CLCB was narrowly defeated, with 48.4% voting to support versus 50.7% opposed. In this commentary, we discuss the referendum campaigns and other political and social factors that may have contributed to the result. Voting patterns appeared to largely follow traditional conservative‐liberal, urban–rural and age divides. The referendum format created a public campaigning environment that encouraged persuasion and selective use of evidence rather than rational discussion of all the evidence and related knowledge gaps. The self‐imposed neutrality of the centre left Labour Party and its popular leader may have been a decisive factor in the narrow defeat. It did not appear to be the case that anti‐CLCB groups outspent the pro‐CLCB movement in online promotional advertisements, and the leading digital media appeared largely neutral or mildly in favour of reform. The recent New Zealand experience illustrates the uncertainties of attempting to achieve cannabis law reform via a public referendum vote.
The Winner Takes It All Marien, Sofie; Kern, Anna
Political behavior,
12/2018, Letnik:
40, Številka:
4
Journal Article
Recenzirano
Odprti dostop
Despite the strong theoretical expectations about the beneficial effect of direct democratic instruments on citizens’ political support, the empirical evidence is scarce and inconsistent. We add to ...this literature by studying the effect of the use of a direct democratic process on citizens’ political support and its underlying causal mechanism. Using a unique research design that combines a strong test of causality with a high level of ecological validity, we surveyed inhabitants of a Belgian neighborhood that held a local referendum and a comparison group (i.e. inhabitants of a comparable neighborhood without referendum) before and after the referendum (n = 1049). Using difference-in-differences analysis and first difference regression analysis, we show that in line with our expectations the increase in political support following the referendum is not driven by involvement or procedural fairness perceptions but by an increase in support levels among the winners of the decision. Moreover, despite the contested nature of the issue, losers’ level of political support did not decrease significantly after the result of the referendum was announced.
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