The paper develops and operationalises a supply chain risk network management (SCRNM) process that captures interdependencies between risks, multiple (potentially conflicting) performance measures ...and risk mitigation strategies within a (risk) network setting. The process helps in prioritising risks and strategies specific to the decision maker's risk appetite. The process is demonstrated through a case study conducted in a global manufacturing supply chain involving semi-structured interviews and focus group sessions with experts in risk management. Theoretically grounded in the framework of Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) and Expected Utility Theory (EUT), the modelling approach has a number of distinctive characteristics. It utilises a top-down approach of Fault Tree Analysis (FTA). Performance measures are identified first and subsequently connected to risks. A ‘probability-conditional expected utility’ matrix is introduced to reflect the propagation impact of interdependent risks on all performance measures identified. A ‘weighted net evaluation of risk mitigation’ method is proposed and the method of ‘swing weights’ is used to capture the trade-off between the efficacy of strategies and the associated cost keeping in view the decision maker's risk appetite. The approach adapts and integrates techniques from safety and reliability engineering (FTA), decision making under uncertainty (EUT), and multi-criteria decision analysis (swing weights). The merits and challenges associated with the implementation of interdependency based frameworks are discussed. Propositions are presented to elucidate the significance of modelling interdependency between risks and strategies.
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•A SCRM process integrating all stages of the risk management process is proposed and operationalised.•The operationalisation scheme adapts and integrates various techniques from diversified research areas.•A ‘probability-conditional expected utility’ matrix is introduced to assess interdependent risks.•A ‘weighted net evaluation of risk mitigation’ method is proposed to capture the decision maker's risk appetite.•Propositions are introduced to elucidate the significance of modelling interdependent risks.
Several countries are incentivizing the use of hydrogen (H2) fuel cell vehicles, thereby increasing the number of H2 refueling stations (HRSs), particularly in urban areas with high population ...density and heavy traffic. Therefore, it is necessary to assess the risks of gaseous H2 refueling stations (GHRSs) and liquefied H2 refueling stations (LHRSs). This study aimed to perform a quantitative risk assessment (QRA) of GHRSs and LHRSs. A comparative study is performed to enhance the decision-making of engineers in setting safety goals and defining design options. A systematic QRA approach is proposed to estimate the likelihood and consequences of hazardous events occurring at HRSs. Consequence analysis results indicate that catastrophic ruptures of tube trailer and liquid hydrogen storage tanks are the worst accidents, as they cause fires and explosions. An assessment of individual and societal risks indicates that LHRSs present a lower hazard risk than GHRSs. However, both station types require additional safety barrier devices for risk reduction, such as detachable couplings, hydrogen detection sensors, and automatic and manual emergency shutdown systems, which are required for risk acceptance.
•The QRA of HRS provided the consequence of release accidents and risk summation.•The catastrophic rupture of fluid stroage is the worst case of HRS.•The risk assessment indicated that the LHRS has a lower risk of 9.37% than the GHRS.
•Evaluation of green roofs for stormwater management at urban basin scale.•Green roofs cause peak flow and volume reduction in the urban drainage network.•Green roofs are more effective during ...frequent storms of smaller magnitude.•Non-linear reduction of outlet peak flow if network mainly at maximum convey capacity.•Effectiveness may increase with spatially heterogeneous implementation.
Urbanization modifies the hydrologic cycle, resulting in increased runoff rates, volumes, and peak flows in the drainage network. In this paper, the implementation of green roofs as source control solutions for mitigating the impacts of urbanization is analysed at the urban catchment scale. The hydrologic-hydraulic response of a 2 km2 urban basin is investigated under various implementation scenarios and rainfall characteristics. In particular, a distributed hydrologic model is employed to assess the impact of 4 spatially homogeneous installations of green roofs (25%, 50%, 75%, 100% of roofs area converted) when forced by 6 storms differing in both duration and return period. In addition, a spatially heterogeneous configuration is tested, with green roofs concentrated where the drainage network is more prone to high degrees of filling. Results show that implementing green roofs at the urban watershed scale can be considered a valuable strategy to reduce both flow peak and volume in urban drainage networks, although the approach is more effective for frequent storms of smaller magnitude. In addition, it is found that the urban system may respond non-linearly to the extent of green roofs implementation in terms of peak flow reduction at the network outlet, and that non-linearity is mainly related to the network being close to its flow convey capability. Finally, planning redevelopment efforts on the basis of local insufficiencies in network convey capacity has the potential of increasing the effectiveness of Low Impact Development solutions.
Purpose This paper aims to capture the complex interdependences between supply chain disruptions (SCDs), SC risk mitigation strategies and firm performance in the context of disruptive events to ...enhance resilience for medium-sized and large firms coping with complex supply chain networks. The roles of digitalization, insurance and government support have also been addressed as potential strategies to counteract the impacts of disruptions on supply chains. Design/methodology/approach This study is based on an empirical investigation in an FMCG company – using a hybrid causal mapping technique based on the frameworks of interpretive structural modeling (ISM) and Bayesian networks (BN) – of 11 levels of relationships between SCDs (in supply, production, logistics, demand and finance), SC risk mitigation strategies (flexibility, efficiency, agility and responsiveness), insurance, government support, information and knowledge sharing, digitalization and finally the key firm performance measures (continuity, quality and financial performance). Findings The results of the empirical investigation reveal and describe: (1) the nature and probabilistic quantification of the lower-level relationships among the four SCDs, among the mitigation strategies and the three firm performance measures; (2) the nature and probabilistic quantification of the higher-level relationships among the impacts of SCDs, SC risk mitigation strategies and firm performance and (3) how to model and quantify the complex interdependences in single firms and their supply chains. Originality/value Our results can support managers in developing more effective decision-making models to assess and manage unfavorable events and cascade effects among different functions and processes in the context of risks and disruptions.
•This paper investigates the dual impacts of agricultural practices on crop yields and farmers’ livelihoods.•Results show social capital has positive impacts on the adoption of agricultural ...practices.•By using integrated practices, farmers can gain high yields and income.•Adoption of integrated practices has multiple impacts on sustainable livelihood.•The integrated practices should be adopted in drought-prone, degraded and water-stressed areas.
Using sustainable agriculture practices has various economic, social and environmental benefits. Determining the attitude of farmers toward risk is an important first step in understanding their behaviour and coping strategies to mitigate environmental risks. This paper investigates the dual impacts of some agricultural practices on agricultural yields and farmers’ livelihoods considering sustainable farmland. Cross-sectional data is collected from farmers in six rural villages in Tigray region, Northern Ethiopia using structured questionnaires. Results show that education, labour supply, agricultural extension services, attitudes, social capital, risk mitigation attitudes, farming experience and soil conditions are factors that significantly affect farmers’ decisions to adopt these practices. The practices are adopted either in isolation or jointly of integrated sustainable practices that increase crop production, household income and asset. Therefore, government and other development actors should promote their adoptions especially in drought-prone, degraded and water-stressed areas
Few studies have assessed participant safety in human challenge trials (HCTs). Key questions regarding HCTs include how risky such trials have been, how often adverse events (AEs) and serious adverse ...events (SAEs) occur, and whether risk mitigation measures have been effective.
A systematic search of PubMed and PubMed Central for articles reporting on results of HCTs published between 1980 and 2021 was performed and completed by 7 October 2021.
Of 2838 articles screened, 276 were reviewed in full. A total of 15 046 challenged participants were described in 308 studies that met inclusion criteria; 286 (92.9%) of these studies reported mitigation measures used to minimize risk to the challenge population. Among 187 studies that reported on SAEs, 0.2% of participants experienced at least 1 challenge-related SAE. Among 94 studies that graded AEs by severity, challenge-related AEs graded "severe" were reported by between 5.6% and 15.8% of participants. AE data were provided as a range to account for unclear reporting. Eighty percent of studies published after 2010 were registered in a trials database.
HCTs are increasingly common and used for an expanding list of diseases. Although AEs occur, severe AEs and SAEs are rare. Reporting has improved over time, though not all papers provide a comprehensive report of relevant health impacts. We found very few severe symptoms or SAEs in studies that reported them, but many HCTs did not report relevant safety data. This study was preregistered on PROSPERO as CRD42021247218.
Public health authorities have been paramount in guaranteeing that adequate fresh air ventilation is promoted in classrooms to avoid SARS-CoV-2 transmission in educational environments. In this work ...it was aimed to assess ventilation conditions (carbon dioxide, CO2) and suspended particulate matter (PM2.5, PM10 and UFP) levels in 19 classrooms – including preschool, primary and secondary education – located in the metropolitan area of Ciudad Real, Central-Southern Spain, during the school’s reopening (from September 30th until October 27th, 2020) after about 7 months of lockdown due to COVID-19 pandemic. The classrooms that presented the worst indoor environmental conditions, according to the highest peak of concentration obtained, were particularly explored to identify the possible influencing factors and respective opportunities for improvement. Briefly, findings suggested that although ventilation promoted through opening windows and doors according to official recommendations is guaranteeing adequate ventilation conditions in most of the studied classrooms, thus minimizing the risk of SARS-CoV-2 airborne transmission, a total of 5 (26%) surveyed classrooms were found to exceed the recommended CO2 concentration limit value (700 ppm). In general, preschool rooms were the educational environments that registered better ventilation conditions, while secondary classrooms exhibited the highest peak and average CO2 concentrations. In turn, for PM2.5, PM10 and UFP, the concentrations assessed in preschools were, on average about 2-fold greater than the levels obtained in both primary and secondary classrooms. In fact, the indoor PM2.5 and PM10 concentrations substantially exceeded the recommended limits of 8hr-exposure, established by WHO, in 63% and 32% of the surveyed classrooms, respectively. Overall, it is expected that the findings presented in this study will assist the establishment of evidence-based measures (namely based on ensuring proper ventilation rates and air filtration) to mitigate preventable environmental harm in public school buildings, mainly at local and national levels.
•26% of the classrooms presented inadequate ventilation conditions (CO2 > 700 ppm).•63% and 32% exceeded WHO guidelines for indoor PM2.5 and PM10 levels, respectively.•Secondary schools presented higher CO2 levels than pre and primary schools.•Preschools were the educational environments with higher PM2.5, PM10 and UFP levels.•Ventilation and PM source control/air filtration-based measures need to be addressed to reduce health risks.
The available COVID‐19 literature has focused on specific disease manifestations, infection control, and delivery or prioritization of services for specific patient groups in the setting of the acute ...COVID‐19 pandemic. Local health systems aim to contain the COVID‐19 pandemic and hospitals and health‐care providers rush to provide the capacity for a surge of COVID‐19 patients. However, the short, medium‐term, and long‐term outcomes of patients with gastrointestinal (GI) diseases without COVID‐19 will be affected by the ability to develop locally adapted strategies to meet their service needs in the COVID‐19 setting. To mitigate risks for patients with GI diseases, it is useful to differentiate three phases: (i) the acute phase, (ii) the adaptation phase, and (iii) the consolidation phase. During the acute phase, service delivery for patients with GI disease will be curtailed to meet competing health‐care needs of COVID‐19 patients. During the adaptation phase, GI services are calibrated towards a “new normal,” and the consolidation phase is characterized by rapid introduction and ongoing refinement of services. Proactive planning with engagement of relevant stakeholders including consumer representatives is required to be prepared for a variety of scenarios that are dictated by thus far undefined long‐term economic and societal impacts of the pandemic. Because substantial changes to the delivery of services are likely to occur, it is important that these changes are embedded into quality and research frameworks to ensure that data are generated that support evidence‐based decision‐making during the adaptation and consolidation phases.
Coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) poses a significant threat to the population and urban sustainability worldwide. The surge mitigation is complicated and associates many factors, including the ...pandemic status, policy, socioeconomics and resident behaviours. Modelling and analytics with spatial-temporal big urban data are required to assist the mitigation of the pandemic. This study proposes a novel perspective to analyse the spatial-temporal potential exposure risk of residents by capturing human behaviours based on spatial-temporal car park availability data. Near real-time data from 1,904 residential car parks in Singapore, a classical megacity, are collected to analyse car mobility and its spatial-temporal heat map. The implementation of the circuit breaker, a COVID-19 measure, in Singapore has reduced the mobility and heat (daily frequency of mobility) significantly at about 30.0%. It contributes to a 44.3%–55.4% reduction in the transportation-related air emissions under two scenarios of travelling distance reductions. Urban sustainability impacts in both environment and economy are discussed. The spatial-temporal potential exposure risk mapping with space-time interactions is further investigated via an extended Bayesian spatial-temporal regression model. The maximal reduction rate of the defined potential exposure risk lowers to 37.6% by comparison with its peak value. The big data analytics of changes in car mobility behaviour and the resultant potential exposure risks can provide insights to assist in (a) designing a flexible circuit breaker exit strategy, (b) precise management via identifying and tracing hotspots on the mobility heat map, and (c) making timely decisions by fitting curves dynamically in different phases of COVID-19 mitigation. The proposed method has the potential to be used by decision-makers worldwide with available data to make flexible regulations and planning.
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•Spatiotemporal potential exposure risks are analysed by capturing human behaviours.•Big urban data in Singapore (SG) are used to demonstrate the method’s applicability.•Air emissions were reduced significantly after implementing the circuit breaker in SG.•Precise management via identifying and tracing hotspots on the mobility heat map.•Spatial potential exposure risks can guide a flexible local lockdown exit strategy.
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