Ambient stability of colloidal nanocrystal quantum dots (QDs) is imperative for low-cost, high-efficiency QD photovoltaics. We synthesized air-stable, ultrasmall PbS QDs with diameter (D) down to 1.5 nm, and found an abrupt transition at D ≈ 4 nm in the air stability as the QD size was varied from 1.5 to 7.5 nm. X-ray photoemission spectroscopy measurements and density functional theory calculations reveal that the stability transition is closely associated with the shape transition of oleate-capped QDs from octahedron to cuboctahedron, driven by steric hindrance and thus size-dependent surface energy of oleate-passivated Pb-rich QD facets. This microscopic understanding of the surface chemistry on ultrasmall QDs, up to a few nanometers, should be very useful for precisely and accurately controlling physicochemical properties of colloidal QDs such as doping polarity, carrier mobility, air stability, and hot-carrier dynamics for solar cell applications.