This study identifies the important factors that contribute to or inhibit forest transitions in nine Asian countries: China, India, Indonesia, Japan, Laos, Malaysia, Republic of Korea, Philippines, and Vietnam. A qualitative comparative analysis method was used to determine which conditions or combinations of conditions led to or prevented a forest transition. Under the condition of public ownership with no private forest tenure or ownership of forest land, there was no instance of forest transition among the nine countries studied. Under the condition of non-liberal timber trade policies, there was no instance of forest transition in the countries studied. The results of this analysis suggest that for a forest transition to occur, the country should liberalize timber import and provide forest tenure to the private sector. Based on these results, we argue that in order for a forest transition to take place or for REDD+ to be effective, the state should allow for private sector to participate in forest management and create market conditions that meet the demand for timber via trade policy alignment. Changes of total forest cover (Unit: %). Display omitted •Economic, ecological and political factors contributing to or inhibiting forest transition in nine countries in Asia, including China, India, Indonesia, Japan, Laos, Malaysia, Republic of Korea, Philippines and Vietnam, were examined.•Using qualitative comparative analysis method the conditions for forest transition to occur or not to occur were identified.•There are two potential conditions for forest transition to occur: 1) liberalization of timber import, and 2) private forest ownership or forest tenure enabling entrepreneurship to be operationalized for efficient land use decision making by individuals.•This corresponds to the conditions for forest transition not to occur, which include: 1) supply of timber from other countries is tightly controlled by the government, and 2) public land ownership under which entrepreneurship cannot operate in land use.