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  • Connecting the SST Pattern ...
    Rugenstein, Maria; Dhame, Shreya; Olonscheck, Dirk; Wills, Robert Jnglin; Watanabe, Masahiro; Seager, Richard

    Geophysical research letters, 28 November 2023, Letnik: 50, Številka: 22
    Journal Article

    In the equatorial and subtropical east Pacific Ocean, strong ocean‐atmosphere coupling results in large‐amplitude interannual variability. Recent literature debates whether climate models reproduce observed short and long‐term surface temperature trends in this region. We reconcile the debate by reevaluating a large range of trends in initial condition ensembles of 15 climate models. We confirm that models fail to reproduce long‐term trends, but also find that many models do not reproduce the observed decadal‐scale swings in the East to West gradient of the equatorial Pacific. Models with high climate sensitivity are less likely to reproduce observed decadal‐scale swings than models with a modest climate sensitivity, possibly due to an incorrect balance of cloud feedbacks driven by changing inversion strength versus surface warming. Our findings suggest that two not well understood problems of the current generation of climate models are connected and we highlight the need to increase understanding of decadal‐scale variability. Plain Language Summary We connect two pressing problems of current generation climate models: their inability to reproduce observed trends of surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean and their high climate sensitivity. We first reconcile a debate on how and when models fail to reproduce the observations. We then show that models which do not reproduce short‐term swings in the gradient between East and West equatorial Pacific Ocean tend to have a high climate sensitivity. Understanding this link will provide physical arguments for trusting the high climate sensitivity models more or less but requires substantial research from the ocean and atmosphere communities. Key Points We reconcile seemingly contradicting evidences for the ability of climate models to reproduce observed surface temperature pattern trends All models fail to reproduce long‐term trends but many also cannot simulate decadal‐scale swings in the zonal equatorial Pacific Models with a high effective climate sensitivity reproduce decadal‐scale swings much less likely