Patients undergoing mechanical ventilation (MV) often experience respiratory muscle dysfunction, which complicates the weaning process. There is no simple means to predict or diagnose respiratory muscle dysfunction because diagnosis depends on measurements in muscle diaphragmatic fibre. As oxidative stress is a key mechanism contributing to MV‐induced respiratory muscle dysfunction, the aim of this study was to determine if differences in blood measures of oxidative stress in patients who had success and failure in a spontaneous breathing trial (SBT) could be used to predict the outcome of MV. This was a prospective analysis of MV‐dependent patients (≥72 hrs; n = 34) undergoing a standard weaning protocol. Clinical, laboratory and oxidative stress analyses were performed. Measurements were made on blood samples taken at three time‐points: immediately before the trial, 30 min. into the trial in weaning success (WS) patients, or immediately before return to MV in weaning failure (WF) patients, and 6 hrs after the trial. We found that blood measures of oxidative stress distinguished patients who would experience WF from patients who would experience WS. Before SBT, WF patients presented higher oxidative damage in lipids and higher antioxidant levels and decreased nitric oxide concentrations. The observed differences in measures between WF and WS patients persisted throughout and after the weaning trial. In conclusion, WF may be predicted based on higher malondialdehyde, higher vitamin C and lower nitric oxide concentration in plasma.