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Bulluck, Heerajnarain; Zheng, Huili; Chan, Mark Y; Foin, Nicolas; Foo, David C; Lee, Chee W; Lim, Soo T; Sahlen, Anders; Tan, Huay C; Tan, Jack W; Tong, Khim L; Wong, Aaron S; Wong, Philip E; Yeo, Khung K; Foo, Ling L; Chua, Terrance S; Koh, Tian H; Hausenloy, Derek J
Scientific reports, 07/2019, Letnik: 9, Številka: 1Journal Article
We aimed to identify independent predictors of cardiac mortality and hospitalization for heart failure (HHF) from a real-world, multi-ethnic Asian registry the Singapore Myocardial Infarction Registry of ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) patients treated by primary percutaneous coronary intervention. 11,546 eligible STEMI patients between 2008 and 2015 were identified. In-hospital, 30-day and 1-year cardiac mortality and 1-year HHF rates were 6.4%, 6.8%, 8.3% and 5.2%, respectively. From the derivation cohort (70% of patients), age, Killip class and cardiac arrest, creatinine, hemoglobin and troponin on admission and left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) during hospitalization were predictors of in-hospital, 30-day and 1-year cardiac mortality. Previous ischemic heart disease (IHD) was a predictor of in-hospital and 30-day cardiac mortality only, whereas diabetes was a predictor of 1-year cardiac mortality only. Age, previous IHD and diabetes, Killip class, creatinine, hemoglobin and troponin on admission, symptom-to-balloon-time and LVEF were predictors of 1-year HHF. The c-statistics were 0.921, 0.901, 0.881, 0.869, respectively. Applying these models to the validation cohort (30% of patients) showed good fit and discrimination (c-statistic 0.922, 0.913, 0.903 and 0.855 respectively; misclassification rate 14.0%, 14.7%, 16.2% and 24.0% respectively). These predictors could be incorporated into specific risk scores to stratify reperfused STEMI patients by their risk level for targeted intervention.
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in: SICRIS
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